kdxken Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Id like this to stall right over Cohassett to see 10" of rain and 50-70mph winds. Seems doable. I'll take the rain fetish...rain typically boring unless it's hard and fast. Stein 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 At least we would get some TOR's on the HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, LawdogGRNJ said: Surprised that no one has mentioned that the next full moon is at 8:02 AM EST....on Sunday. We did. High astro tides 11 feet at Boston 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 NAM hr20 982mb 10mb stronger and east of 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, LawdogGRNJ said: Surprised that no one has mentioned that the next full moon is at 8:02 AM EST....on Sunday. I’ll be at sachuest point next to Newport for that unless I’m chased off by “authorities” which is a solid chance the road to the wildlife sanctuary is closed off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I don't have water issues but certainly worry about trees. I will take the west side with minimal winds if I had a choice I will take east side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, LawdogGRNJ said: Surprised that no one has mentioned that the next full moon is at 8:02 AM EST....on Sunday. This is getting underplayed. And trees are full. What about sun angle while we are at it? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, ineedsnow said: NAM hr20 982mb 10mb stronger and east of 6z Tropical caveats for the NAM apply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Congrats JFK un HRRR. LOL. Let’s tuck this right into NJ. It’s what Ant would want anyways. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Nice to see so many local newcomers here And some oldies too. Don, Quiccy popping in. Need some JoeD, MEkster, et.al to pop in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_observer Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 16 minutes ago, LovewellHemp said: I have a hemp farm in Hope Valley, RI and I'm trying to gauge if it's worth $1000 in materials and the next 48 hours of my life staking up an acre of plants. Are we looking at guaranteed 50+ mph winds 10 miles inland? I appreciate any and all input By the time you have a guarantee it will be too late. IMO, the real questions to ask yourself are: what is your crop worth, how much of your crop could potentially be saved by doing this, and how much up the shitter you are if you lose it all. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’ll be at sachuest point next to Newport for that unless I’m chased off by “authorities” which is a solid chance the road to the wildlife sanctuary is closed off Beavertail in Jamestown? Although they will likely close that. Take the ferry to BI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, PowderBeard said: This is getting underplayed. And trees are full. What about sun angle while we are at it? you're forgetting we're in DST too...so the sun sets an hour later 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Tropical caveats for the NAM apply just looking for trends and bored until the real models come out lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We did. High astro tides 11 feet at Boston Full moon goon, did anyone in SNE expect anything else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Unless this unexpectedly blows up into a strong cat 3 or 4 today, I definitely think the legacy of this one will be the rain/tidal flooding aspect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Less interaction with the trough over Mid Atl, NAM E with storm vs prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, LawdogGRNJ said: Surprised that no one has mentioned that the next full moon is at 8:02 AM EST....on Sunday. I was thinking just that last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Be wary of correcting forecast too far west. I don't think the cross hair between Montauk and Barnstable has changed much. Maybe heavier lean west near RI instead of MVY like I guessed yesterday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 hours ago, FXWX said: Just my 2-cents, but way too much emphasis on every tiny track or intensity change on every 6 hour model run. Not enough emphasis on the trends of the strength and physical layout of the west Atl. ridge to Henri's north and east, as well as the behavior of the OV upper level trough. Henri does not exist in a vacuum. It will only go where other large-scale features allow it to go. Closely monitor the position and changes & pressure tendencies of the Atlantic ridge's isobaric pattern. You have to continually ask yourself, does the modeled track make sense given the layout of the large-scale surface and upper air pressure / height pattern. Some of us have been attempting to keep that more focused ... I ( and anyone else that may have...) spoke at length about the similarities to Sandy, namely: -NAO U/A trough ... the interaction between these two is the entire conductor in orchestrating the destiny of Henri's song. As Sandy demoed in the models, ...they were vastly too far N and E all along, and subsequently correct the "left hook" as it's coined, farther and farther SW. At first, in the guidance, the consensus was impressive to even pick it up - we can be amazed by just that alone... - but it had it deviating back to a N track E of Maine. Then, D 10 -- D7 it was into Maine ... then SNE, then NYC... ultimately, land fall was near Cape May NJ ( or thereabouts...). Granted, the -NAO blocking structures, as well as the trough, ...are not as anomalously strong as that example. Still, I am noting a definitive correction in the amount of hooking left, and it may be limitation do to beta-drift at extended leads, where the models can't really drive a cyclonic rotation against the Coriolis parameter and see the amount of that westward turn - speculative in these latter aspects. I trip into the NY Bite is certainly on the table. As I opined with passion a few moments ago ...that might be very very bad. heh... I wonder how much a city/region, that really is a small sub-country, can take, before a migration event takes place. It's got a tongue-in-cheek humor but for f' sake, 911 ... Sandy ... Pandemic ... and should this drill a Category 2/3 direct ( keeping in mind, Sandy's surge into the understructure of the city was an indirect result! ) surge ... I could almost imagine that becomes a spooked out creep hovel of dystopian fears and people throw hands... resiliency mystique or not, get me the fuggoutta 'eer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’ll be at sachuest point next to Newport for that unless I’m chased off by “authorities” which is a solid chance the road to the wildlife sanctuary is closed off That road is often closed in bad weather, as is the road at first beach, both flood quite easily. I'd look elsewhere, perhaps somewhere a little less fashionable along the cliffwalk? They'll close ocean drive to local traffic only as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, NeonPeon said: That road is often closed in bad weather, as is the road at first beach, both flood quite easily. I'd look elsewhere, perhaps somewhere a little less fashionable along the cliffwalk? They'll close ocean drive to local traffic only as well. Figured , love the cliff walk spot ..Will they close the side road that extends out to the break known as ruggles even the area by purgatory chasm if I can get in that lot would be solid it’s always fun watching the cliff walk at that spot as folks try to scamper down the walkway along the sea wall and time the surf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 More robust storm on NAM vs 06z. Must be due to less interaction wit through, keeping structure intact longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 NAM not looking good for CT...particularly the shoreline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Yup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, weatherwiz said: NAM not looking good for CT...particularly the shoreline Tip of LI in in for a wallop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Figured , love the cliff walk spot ..Will they close the side road that extends out to the break known as ruggles even the area by purgatory chasm if I can get in that lot would be solid it’s always fun watching the cliff walk at that spot as folks try to scamper down the walkway along the sea wall and time the surf They'll likely patrol a couple spots, all of salve's campus ones, for sure. Seaview ave access is a pretty sure bet though if the others are closed off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Was this at least a slight trend towards the global? Idk just trying to think of something positive here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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