STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 MLC May be tuggy tuggying that LLC toward it currently Also , recon center on last pass was south of NHC estimated position 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Modfan2 said: Irma dropped 21” in parts of St Lucie and Indian River counties. Here is a pick I got while working in Sebastian. After the storm Yea, I end up with worms in my basement after like 2-3" of rain, so I am good with that....congrats CT, hopefully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 I may be in the worst possible position right now for this. No power for multiple days or rain that’s floods my house. What wonderful options to chose from . Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Think storms that do that in Houston. 30” + good starting point...still room to raise 'em 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Sn0waddict said: I may be in the worst possible position right now for this. No power for multiple days or rain that’s floods my house. What wonderful options to chose from . Ugh. I would much rather lose power for a week then have flooding problems. Losing power is merely just an inconvenience. Flooding...well that can be just devastating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What happened in Clinton, MA yesterday may just be a warm up....one aspect that will be pretty prevalent IMO is tornado risk, and its being glossed over. You just know @Damage In Tolland is hoping the eye passes about 25 miles to his west RFQ FTW !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Henri’s LLC looking naked here the last few frames? edit, can’t post gif, file too large 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think the center may go west of both of us Globals say Narragansett Bay to MVY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Someone is going to get that much too I think. Agreed that the 12"+ jackpot can stay out of here, lol..... I still am not sold on the further west track (like W LI into W CT), but the trend is definitely west right now. last minute east trend as usual, Cape under a big threat if it goes in east of providence? However, looks like it slows down at around 39 north which will probably help in terms of lowering intensity. Won't be sailing along at 40 mph straight into the coast with little time to weaken and wind speed enhancement. Just a shiteload of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I end up with worms in my basement after like 2-3" of rain, so I am good with that....congrats CT, hopefully. Do you share a basement with Mitch? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mj-pvd Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Quonnie pond should be fine. That barrier beach is called a barrier for a reason, maybe 2 foot rise. That’s what I figured, they have a ton of trees That’s my worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 15 minutes ago, LovewellHemp said: I have a hemp farm in Hope Valley, RI and I'm trying to gauge if it's worth $1000 in materials and the next 48 hours of my life staking up an acre of plants. Are we looking at guaranteed 50+ mph winds 10 miles inland? I appreciate any and all input No guarantees but if you give some edibles I can predict your winds tomorrow at noon for Sunday lol. You probably gust to 50 though. Very close to the ocean. But if you are behind the hills by the golf course less but down by the turf fields more. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 This may be the storm that triggers the first North America, 'climate change' attributed diaspora of population out of a geographical region. Namely, ... NYC ( California is next but ..that's probably more suited to the climate forum) Sandy literally filled the subways of lower Manhattan. Video sent homages of a doom's day species migration - think skies filled with fleeing birds, Hollywood trope. But it wasn't in the sky - it was under foot. Rats! Eeew ... flooding up stairwells ( saw video ), proverbially at the same rate the water fell over the top step, rolling over each subsequent like a class- 4 rapids. That UKMET solution from last 0z last night. That appearance connotes a far worse than Sandy scenario to me. The model seems to want Cat 2 .. ( maybe 3 can be inferred by that weird flop-high tendency that biases guidance all the damn time...) over a long enough period to really not f*ck around with just being close to surge doming - that water WILL come in en masse, bee-line and targeted direct, not indirect like Sandy did. That region, the geographic "bite" layout of upper NJ and western L.I., has never really experienced the full geological possibility it has dodged for the last 200 years: a full bird categoried monster hooking the eye over Central Park. That's ...almost indescribably bad if that happens. Beyond 'bundamental' insanity. But wait, they built 'The Battery' after Sandy - okay... 1 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: I may be in the worst possible position right now for this. No power for multiple days or rain that’s floods my house. What wonderful options to chose from . Ugh. We're in the same boat. I keep waffling back and forth between which option I'd prefer. I think I lean towards the rain...as I'm not in a low lying area and the biggest risk there is some water in the generally unfinished basement. I really hate the though of a tree falling on the house or stressing out about keeping the generator fueled and food from spoiling...not to mention the uncomfortable nights without AC. Honestly I'm kind of hoping for a continued W shift over NYC with a compact wind field that keeps any widespread wind damage close to the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Globals say Narragansett Bay to MVY Yeah I don't think it's a done deal that everything's going to be West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Nice to see so many local newcomers here 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Nam only out to 14 but a east shift and 3mb stronger but its the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: Do you share a basement with Mitch? How does one get worms in the basement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: How does one get worms in the basement spilling the tackle box 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: How does one get worms in the basement Some people around here with very old homes have almost dirt cellar floors. We get some seepage into our cellar but it has somehow improved over the years as things shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thank god the epic flooding rains look to be west for now...you guys can have that jack. I don't have water issues but certainly worry about trees. I will take the west side with minimal winds if I had a choice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 I'm hoping to avoid a tree falling on my house. Hoping the winds are unremarkable at the surface and it peters. With current thinking on track, it seems Newport would be spared the worst of the rain but so much more watching before we have a great sense of where this is going. The trees here are pretty well conditioned for wind, but it could easily be an odd wind direction for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Some people around here with very old homes have almost dirt cellar floors. We get some seepage into our cellar but it has somehow improved over the years as things shift Yea dirt cellars but Ray's house looks relatively new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: How does one get worms in the basement Maybe he has tapeworm or roundworm? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 The ever accurate 48hr HRRR is into W LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Id like this to stall right over Cohassett to see 10" of rain and 50-70mph winds. Seems doable. I'll take the rain fetish...rain typically boring unless it's hard and fast. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: How does one get worms in the basement Drink, debauchery, and morally suspect bedfellows? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Congrats JFK un HRRR. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 44 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: FLOODING RAIN. Can't stress enough this will be the most damaging aspect to this event. I'm jealous, moved down here for just what y'all are going to experience. I've had my days and the "biggy" has yet to hit. Not if but when. So I live vicariously once again... Don in the m'effin house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawdogGRNJ Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Surprised that no one has mentioned that the next full moon is at 8:02 AM EST....on Sunday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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