Chrisrotary12 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Might as well cancel those hurricane watches on the Cape. Wagons west. Remember….Connecticut is the only New England state that experiences severe weather. 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: 150 billion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Per the overlays, it looks like the center of Henri is just west of the deepest convection. What I was thinking when satellite came out this morning, it look as if the convection was nearly entirely out of the convection. So it might be good to slow the hype train for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 The 0z Ukie has a 1020 mb high anchored over New Brunswick from hrs 42 to 72. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Yeah, this may end up like that Isaias mess for ENE, pretty much nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING HENRI... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 73.7W ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 06z Euro is coming west too. Though the 00z run was pretty far east so not a big surprise. Looks like 06z run is going to be near EWB/PVD. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Looks like there's some Saharan dust on pushing in from the South East of the circulation. Any chance it gets ingested and effects the system? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 06z Euro is coming west too. Though the 00z run was pretty far east so not a big surprise. Looks like 06z run is going to be near EWB/PVD. Seems odd to me that it has intensification north of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Yeah into RI from about EWB on 6z euro. So west of that is going to have serious water issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Lets get another 8"+ for Kevin. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 15 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Lucky you. I’ll take it. Maybe we can salvage Sunday here. I’m supposed to be playing disc golf, so let’s hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z Euro is coming west too. Though the 00z run was pretty far east so not a big surprise. Looks like 06z run is going to be near EWB/PVD. Strength? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Lets get another 8"+ for Kevin. Drenched in Tolland? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Sn0waddict said: Strength? Euro isn’t going to handle strength on this well. Track is where it will be a lot more skilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 FL winds 60+kts in the SE quadrant 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Lets get another 8"+ for Kevin. Kevin doing mud angels in his backyard while transformers blow all around? Sounds festive 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Recon is going through some of the convection so keep that in mind, but Henri looks robust. Small area with 55-62kt FL winds and unflagged 58-59kt SFMR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah into RI from about EWB on 6z euro. So west of that is going to have serious water issues. Prob good winds for E MA on that run. Going from EWB/PVD to just south of ORH. Someone just NE of that center would prob get some good winds. Epic rains prob for CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah into RI from about EWB on 6z euro. So west of that is going to have serious water issues. A little more West please. Don't want any more effing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Corrected VDM Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Corrected: This observation corrected a previously corrected observation.Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 12:06ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Name: HenriStorm Number & Year: 08 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 4Observation Number: 05 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 11:41:10ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 29.87N 73.65WB. Center Fix Location: 388 statute miles (624 km) to the SSE (164°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,439m (4,721ft) at 850mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 275° at 33kts (From the W at 38mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 37kts (42.6mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 54 nautical miles (62 statute miles) to the N (351°) of center fix at 11:24:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 85° at 43kts (From the E at 49.5mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the NNW/N (349°) of center fix at 11:20:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 59kts (67.9mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the SE (134°) of center fix at 11:55:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 240° at 62kts (From the WSW at 71.3mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 45 nautical miles (52 statute miles) to the SE (134°) of center fix at 11:54:30ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 850mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) which was observed 45 nautical miles (52 statute miles) to the SE (134°) from the flight level center at 11:54:30Z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 06z Euro is coming west too. Though the 00z run was pretty far east so not a big surprise. Looks like 06z run is going to be near EWB/PVD. Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah into RI from about EWB on 6z euro. So west of that is going to have serious water issues. Good AM AMWx. I think a track right up Naggy Bay is gaining traction just looking at guidance this AM. I feel the runs curling into W LI are too aggressive. Only way I see those occurring is if Henri remains weak and can be impacted more by that trough. If it becomes a stronger storm, the trough won't have as great an impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 HWRF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Prior to the latest ICON if the high was modeled over Nova Scotia as opposed to NB a more eastern landfall into CT/RI/SE MA was modeled. Trough to the west for more of a tug? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Prob good winds for E MA on that run. Going from EWB/PVD to just south of ORH. Someone just NE of that center would prob get some good winds. Epic rains prob for CT. I want to see an eye 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Although I agree it’s exceptionally rare, how can he just cherry pick that one spot on that spacial grid scale? Just completely ignore the 9kts 10-15 miles to the east? Probably a fortunate thing Henri will be crawling over those colder SSTs however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Kevin doing mud angels in his backyard while transformers blow all around? Sounds festive Notice the running attire.... 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: HWRF Ouch Milford CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Good AM AMWx. I think a track right up Naggy Bay is gaining traction just looking at guidance this AM. I feel the runs curling into W LI are too aggressive. Only way I see those occurring is if Henri remains weak and can be impacted more by that trough. If it becomes a stronger storm, the trough won't have as great an impact. Huh I thought stronger = more tucked in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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