CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 I outlined the trough in red and the ridge in black. Those are the key players and whether a lobe of vorticity can capture and sling Henri to the NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Here is the 925 windfield which is a good proxy to core of winds. You can see even at this latitude it remains tight. It also weakens quickly before landfall. If this were other tropical systems that were ETing and accelerating...the wind field to the east would be much more expansive. This is why I think any wind of relevance is near center and just to the east of it. It's a much smaller area than what we would typically see. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That would be a super impactful track, New York would probably have lots of flooding concerns and some wind ones too. Like I said yesterday not time to panic yet though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Anyone have a reasonable rainfall map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 hour ago, dan11295 said: Guess the question is how far west can this go? Is a full left hook into NJ possible? I don't think so There isn't a strong trough to pull this really far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Here is the 925 windfield which is a good proxy to core of winds. You can see even at this latitude it remains tight. It also weakens quickly before landfall. If this were other tropical systems that were ETing and accelerating...the wind field to the east would be much more expansive. This is why I think any wind of relevance is near center and just to the east of it. It's a much smaller area than what we would typically see. Makes track all the more important. I can already see part of the subforum filling up the thread with bust calls because they expected cane gusts 150 miles from the center 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I don't think so There isn't a strong trough to pull this really far west. Central/Western LI is the limit for how far this gets pulled in, still believe Montauk to the Cape is the main target zone, goalposts to be narrowed further today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Central/Western LI is the limit for how far this gets pulled in, still believe Montauk to the Cape is the main target zone, goalposts to be narrowed further today Agree My same thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Hwrf is further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 HWRF would be nasty for srn CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Makes track all the more important. I can already see part of the subforum filling up the thread with bust calls because they expected cane gusts 150 miles from the center Right. I mean think of Sandy and even Irene. You had 50-70mph winds 200 miles E and NE from center. This might be more 40 miles from center. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: HWRF would be nasty for srn CT. Gulp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: HWRF would be nasty for srn CT. Coastal flooding would be pretty devastating. Probably would even see hurricane-force wind gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Right. I mean think of Sandy and even Irene. You had 50-70mph winds 200 miles E and NE from center. This might be more 40 miles from center. Sandy was alot more stronger when it interacted with the trough up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 998.5 mb extrapolated by recon at ~5k ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I don't think so There isn't a strong trough to pull this really far west. At least not yet as per model consensus. But i’d be hedging strongly in favor of a sharper trough given the significant -NAO. I think a tug west, phase, stall/meander 12-24 hr eject ENE, makes most sense. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: At least not yet as per model consensus. But i’d be hedging strongly in favor of a sharper trough given the significant -NAO. How soon do you think this will tug west and how far west ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 I think a landfall into Long Island is gaining much more traction 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Here is the 925 windfield which is a good proxy to core of winds. You can see even at this latitude it remains tight. It also weakens quickly before landfall. If this were other tropical systems that were ETing and accelerating...the wind field to the east would be much more expansive. This is why I think any wind of relevance is near center and just to the east of it. It's a much smaller area than what we would typically see. I don’t disagree, I just think due to the already saturated ground in many areas your not going to need big wind to cause problems 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSurge Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Completely anecdotal but I don’t think the public is ready for this. The handful of people I’ve spoken with here on the island either don’t realize a storm is coming or are downplaying it, saying it’s going out to sea, it’ll just be some rain, etc. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Some of these solutions are really far west…. Like the icon… basically a non event here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, StormSurge said: Completely anecdotal but I don’t think the public is ready for this. The handful of people I’ve spoken with here on the island either don’t realize a storm is coming or are downplaying it, saying it’s going out to sea, it’ll just be some rain, etc. they may be the ones going out to sea... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I think a landfall into Long Island is gaining much more traction 1 minute ago, StormSurge said: Completely anecdotal but I don’t think the public is ready for this. The handful of people I’ve spoken with here on the island either don’t realize a storm is coming or are downplaying it, saying it’s going out to sea, it’ll just be some rain, etc. And that’s the most concerning part of all of this right now, don’t think many people are taking well to waking up with hurricane watches 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Some of these solutions are really far west…. Like the icon… basically a non event here Lucky you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, weatherwiz said: I think a landfall into Long Island is gaining much more traction I think so too. Maybe not central LI yet, but I don't think the trend west is quite done yet. 1 minute ago, StormSurge said: Completely anecdotal but I don’t think the public is ready for this. The handful of people I’ve spoken with here on the island either don’t realize a storm is coming or are downplaying it, saying it’s going out to sea, it’ll just be some rain, etc. This one also had much shorter lead time. Usually we're tracking a CV for 10 days or so before landfall. Just a few days ago we were arguing whether this was even worth talking about lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, StormSurge said: Completely anecdotal but I don’t think the public is ready for this. The handful of people I’ve spoken with here on the island either don’t realize a storm is coming or are downplaying it, saying it’s going out to sea, it’ll just be some rain, etc. Going to be a shock for sure, they probably think at worse it might be a nor'easter which wont end well if this storm sticks to the high end of intensity guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: How soon do you think this will tug west and how far west ? The most impactful storms up here are due to significant HP systems—causing synoptic scale pressure gradient winds, slow down, and phasing with upper levels before leaving the region. Everyone focuses on the storm, itself. Look at the HP. It doesn’t have a path east, until it goes west. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Per the overlays, it looks like the center of Henri is just west of the deepest convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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