OSUmetstud Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: That makes sense. Thanks. Yes thanks. I actually ment WAR to the east but the general idea is there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 It’s a nice visible presentation currently, even in the face of that shear. To really take off it needs to get the eyewall aligned and wrapping upshear to close off fully. Looks like it still might be moving just south of due west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Lets get this to scrape across the entire SNE coastline and make everyone happy. Including poor Weather Happens. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes...the obsession with the precise initialized minimum central pressure is strange. It's easily explained. An excuse to count out a run the weenie doesn't like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 NHC operations -related question: do they still employ DIVORAC techniques? I don't hear them referencing that as much - if ever as of late - in their updates wrt to specific entities. More over, I don't see DIVORAC products as easily/readily as years ago now that think about it. Maybe some newer tech has supplanted that method ? I just used to noticed primitive eyes showing up earlier/clearer in DIV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Monday and Tuesday have high tides. Steve already loading bags full of dried dog poo and heading to Misquamicut. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Lets get this to scrape across the entire SNE coastline and make everyone happy. Including poor Weather Happens. thank you i would be eternally grateful lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lets get this to scrape across the entire SNE coastline and make everyone happy. Including poor Weather Happens. Prefer to get it inland to pike and then slide NNE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: NHC operations -related question: do they still employ DIVORAC techniques? I don't hear them referencing that as much - if ever as of late - in their updates wrt to specific entities. More over, I don't see DIVORAC products as easily/readily as years ago not that think about it. Maybe some newer tech has supplanted that method ? I just used to noticed primitive eyes showing up earlier/clearer in DIV. https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt08L.html Yeah, it's near a t4.0 65 knots (minimal hurricane) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I believe SSD is done at least somewhat manually while Wisconsin is computer generated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt08L.html Yeah, it's near a t4.0 65 knots (minimal hurricane) Lol .. .it's like, 'yeah, Euro doesn't need to initialize it' hilarious .. thanks though for providing these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 EDIT: That was 18z yesterday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Prefer to get it inland to pike and then slide NNE That too, but not sure NNW to pike through CT can happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Prefer to get it inland to pike and then slide NNE Yeah I don't think anyone wants it to stall just offshore or on the coast. we want it moving quickly and well inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah I don't think anyone wants it to stall just offshore or on the coast. we want it moving quickly and well inland Major flooding potential for anywhere this just sits and spins new convection in conjunction with surge flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah I don't think anyone wants it to stall just offshore or on the coast. we want it moving quickly and well inland Not gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah I don't think anyone wants it to stall just offshore or on the coast. we want it moving quickly and well inland A stall offshore means meh for everyone except Ginx who dons the wizard outfit and performs water rescues . In order for this to cause the damage that most here are after.. it needs to haul ass up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: A stall offshore means meh for everyone except Ginx who dons the wizard outfit and performs water rescues . In order for this to cause the damage that most here are after.. it needs to haul ass up here This will not haul. Option not there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: This will not haul. Option not there. We really can put a feather in our caps that these waters will (almost) always destroy every slow-moving TC that attempts to move through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not gonna happen. Yeah, it's not going to be a FM but it'll probably be faster than guidance shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: We really can put a feather in our caps that these waters will (almost) always destroy every slow-moving TC that attempts to move through. See hurricane Belle in ‘76 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said: We really can put a feather in our caps that these waters will (almost) always destroy every slow-moving TC that attempts to move through. Warm water exists not far off the coast. But yeah it will weaken it eventually. Slow moving also means less shear which will help maintain strength. Maybe this can move like 15-20kts per hour if it gets caught up, but this isn't a typical SNE strike with an accelerating system. I still would lean not as far west as GFS or other models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 18z models moved NW which was obviously going to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said: See hurricane Belle in ‘76 Belle was gutted as it passed 37-38N though. 120mph to 75 in like 15 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I'm wary of rooting on any trop cyclone. Be careful what you wish for 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Belle was gutted as it passed 37-38N though. 120mph to 75 in like 15 hours I may represent the minority in this jest ...but that would be fine for me in this case. I don't need to witness 120 mph anything unless it's cash to my bank account delivery service - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, Torch Tiger said: Belle was gutted as it passed 37-38N though. 120mph to 75 in like 15 hours Exactly. That’s my “concern” here. A Cat 3 just meandering north until it makes landfall as a weak cat 1. Got to get it to move more quickly or hope the waters south of us sustain it longer than is likely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I may represent the minority in this jest ...fine. I don't need to witness 120 mph anything unless it's cash to my bank account delivery service - I "witnessed" around 120mph in Port Charlotte in the bathtub forming a human shield over my baby. It was definitely less enjoyable than you would surmise based on people's desires here. Still a decent part of me is always wishing for each storm to hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Looking over the total layout from sources... It seems to me this region annotated below is the better region for intensification. The shear should be less over that geographic window of opportunity ... ample warm g-string water .. yadda yadda should Henri make it through that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Prefer to get it inland to pike and then slide NNE I prefer it ruins everyone's labor day to give us the trifecta of 3 shitty, 3 day summer weekend's in a row (counting Memorial Day as the "unofficial" start to summer). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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