CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: 100 billion? 150 billion? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 1 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandySurvivor Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Sandy was a ~ 70 billion dollar disaster and this "SandySurvivor" just said 'more impactful than Sandy' Who's the joke lol Sandy was a joke for many until the morning after 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said: Sandy was a joke for many until the morning after What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 When do folks begin boarding windows ? Is it now? Tomorrow? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 19 minutes ago, FXWX said: Just my 2-cents, but way too much emphasis on every tiny track or intensity change on every 6 hour model run. Not enough emphasis on the trends of the strength and physical layout of the west Atl. ridge to Henri's north and east, as well as the behavior of the OV upper level trough. Henri does not exist in a vacuum. It will only go where other large-scale features allow it to go. Closely monitor the position and changes & pressure tendencies of the Atlantic ridge's isobaric pattern. You have to continually ask yourself, does the modeled track make sense given the layout of the large-scale surface and upper air pressure / height pattern. I’d be concerned about the tug west of Henri there’s an upper air low down south of me in southern PA awful lot of rain poised to come in here right now from the southwest. That upper air low will tug Henri west to the coast making the left hand turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 6z GEFS West a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 On last microwave imagery (2am I believe) Center is significantly further north then where center appears on water vapor I.e heavily tilted still . This won’t be taking off at all till / if that aligns seen that movie many times , cimss shows mid level wind shear has let up and there is still a bit of N shear left (15 knots) couple hours ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When do folks begin boarding windows ? Is it now? Tomorrow? No boarding yet here…Wrapping up our week vacation in Pt Judith and went to watch the sunrise at the light house this morning, all the local surfers were out riding the swells, I’m sure they are pumped for what’s to come 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Center is significantly further north then where center appears on water vapor I.e heavily tilted still . This won’t be taking off at all till / if that aligns seen that movie many times Still tilted for sure, but let's wait for recon to see where the actual center is. It was embedded a bit deeper into the convection than expected yesterday, and we wouldn't have known that if not for the actual recon fixes. In the meantime, we do have some relatively new MW images that show a tilted, but respectable system. Like yesterday, there's a mid level eye feature, but there's still some tilt between the LLC and MLC. You're right though, it can't take off until those align. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Still tilted for sure, but let's wait for recon to see where the actual center is. It was embedded a bit deeper into the convection than expected yesterday, and we wouldn't have known that if not for the actual recon fixes. In the meantime, we do have some relatively new MW images that show a tilted, but respectable system. Like yesterday, there's a mid level eye feature, but there's still some tilt between the LLC and MLC. You're right though, it can't take off until those align. This was the imagery I was referring to , is that from 2am what does it take to expedite the realigning of a systems tilted centers . I recall many cases where the process just never occurs even under seemingly favorable conditions. A big blow up of convection? the shallow steering flow aligning with deeper layer steering ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 30 minutes ago, FXWX said: Just my 2-cents, but way too much emphasis on every tiny track or intensity change on every 6 hour model run. Not enough emphasis on the trends of the strength and physical layout of the west Atl. ridge to Henri's north and east, as well as the behavior of the OV upper level trough. Henri does not exist in a vacuum. It will only go where other large-scale features allow it to go. Closely monitor the position and changes & pressure tendencies of the Atlantic ridge's isobaric pattern. You have to continually ask yourself, does the modeled track make sense given the layout of the large-scale surface and upper air pressure / height pattern. The best post so far in the thread... considering that it was your 2cents worth that means you still have a lot of pocket change to spend....feel free to spend more by posting more often in the thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Intensity aside, the UKie tug west via capture makes a lot more sense to me physically, vs a GFS track that takes it into ME virtually unimpeded. There is HP building into northern ME and NS during that time frame. There will certainly be some form of ET transition given climo and UL trough interaction... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: This was the imagery I was referring to , is that from 2am what does it take to expedite the realigning of a systems tilted centers . I recall many cases where the process just never occurs even under seemingly favorable conditions. A big blow up of convection? Yes, those are from around 2am (surprised I didn't see them then) Consistent and deep convection helps a lot in getting a system vertically stacked. What's critical is that the convection is able to wrap upshear (in this case, to the west) to form a complete eyewall. Once you have a stable eyewall it's game on. Re-upping a great illustration from Twitter. Courtesy of Andy Hazelton. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 6z HMON coming in A LOT stronger vs 0z through 36 hrs. Looks like a cat 2 by that hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Recon has descended and will be heading into Henri shortly. Edit: note that since we have active watches up now, the NHC will issue intermediate advisories to update things like wind speed, pressure, and heading at 8am/2pm/8pm/2am. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandySurvivor Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When do folks begin boarding windows ? Is it now? Tomorrow? Already completed yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said: Already completed yesterday Where are you in Jersey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 45 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said: Sandy was a joke for many until the morning after This will be no where like Sandy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 16 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 6z HMON coming in A LOT stronger vs 0z through 36 hrs. Looks like a cat 2 by that hr. Quickly weakens though. Landfall western LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think we touched on that. Both the ridge to the east and trough to the west are not typical for us to get canes. So you don’t have that massive pressure gradient like in previous storms. So it’s sort of on its own as far as analogs. I think that is why wind field appears much tighter compared to other storms in the past. It’s just not that simple yes ridge to the east and trough to the west but there’s an upper level low setting up in the Mid Atlantic states that could have implications on the final track of Henri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: This will be no where like Sandy It's not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Kevin Reilly said: It’s just not that simple yes ridge to the east and trough to the west but there’s an upper level low setting up in the Mid Atlantic states that could have implications on the final track of Henri. That's the trough I am talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's not even close. Exactly People compare every storm to a past storm Sandy was a monster storm which phased with an incoming trough . This will still pack some punch but nothing like Sandy . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 hours ago, Modfan2 said: Think this ends up right in Ginx/Kev backyard. Models had Fred in Mobile and gradually came back east. Close enough 60H 22/1800Z 41.1N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH CT-WN-8Moosup 1.7 NELat: 41.731808Lon: -71.846671 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Quickly weakens though. Landfall western LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 H 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 After landfall, will this veer off to the east again? or just dump rain for days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Mj-pvd said: Great time to move back to RI. Bad time for my parents to buy a house in westerly this year on the water… Where on the water? My hometown I know the surge zones very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This will be no where like Sandy Well No 30+" snowfall this time, most likely. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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