yoda Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If this hooks into LI and NYC most of the area sees very little outside of CT and RI coasts. There is no ET transition and wind field is tight and not expanding. Kind of yawn solution. Subtle trend to have this inch even more west… we’ll take it. I don’t want a bunch of rain and don’t want to lose power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Icon pulling a NAM way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 BOX already issued HLS https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS81-KBOX.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 I know we talked about winds not being a big issue but the probs for tropical storm force, 50+ knot, and hurricane force are a bit uneasy. also 2-4’ surge along CT shore… and 3-5’ farther east. Can’t rule that out into the CT shore with a more west track either 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I know we talked about winds not being a big issue but the probs for tropical storm force, 50+ knot, and hurricane force are a bit uneasy. also 2-4’ surge along CT shore… and 3-5’ farther east. Can’t rule that out into the CT shore with a more west track either Just think of it as the best severe storm of the year shear starting to relax.. looking better, inflow of storms forming to the west now.. should intensify a good amount in my opinion the next 24 hours. Definitely think this reaches cat 2 if not 3 but Definitely weakens some before coming up here.. either way the general public is in for a surprise i think.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Hr 12 and the 6z GFS is west by a good amount already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2mb stronger at hr18 and definitely west of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mj-pvd Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Great time to move back to RI. Bad time for my parents to buy a house in westerly this year on the water… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 34 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Subtle trend to have this inch even more west… we’ll take it. I don’t want a bunch of rain and don’t want to lose power. East side is the dirty side of the storm, be careful what you wish for. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 2mb stronger at hr18 and definitely west of 0z Weaker at hr 48... but slightly west of 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just SE of RI at 18z SUN... 983mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Smidge west and weaker. Not much of a precip field. PVD will be closing up the hurricane barrier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The UK would begin to diminish SNE impact and focus on tri state. Would be big winds with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Right up Narr Bay on the goofus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Gives chills to see Cane watches for CT. There’s gonna be mass scrambling to get all those boats out of there by tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Recon currently doing the dropsonde/upper level sampling and low level recon is en route. Still a lot to be sorted out on final landfall location and nature of the turn toward the coast i.e. is there a loop like some guidance wants to do. That will make a big difference obviously on who sees the worst conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Smidge west and weaker. Not much of a precip field. PVD will be closing up the hurricane barrier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mj-pvd Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Wow always wanted to see those doors close drive by them all the time. Downtown providence you can see the water mark on some buildings from 38 and you know why they have them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandySurvivor Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Would be big winds with that Called it yesterday 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gives chills to see Cane watches for CT. There’s gonna be mass scrambling to get all those boats out of there by tomorrow night Those boaters should have listened to me 14 hours ago, SandySurvivor said: we have everything packed and ready to evacuate I expect impacts of worse than Sandy but not as severe as the 1938 storm 13 hours ago, SandySurvivor said: increasing chance ms someone sees an RFQ hit from CT/RI border north and east from there. Wouldn’t be surprised to see winds over 100mph from Providence thru Boston. 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Maybe 150mph? 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Another day of hype and hysteria...love it! Great model runs, still trending west too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Guess the question is how far west can this go? Is a full left hook into NJ possible? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandySurvivor Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe 150mph? I wouldn’t forecast that high. I have a lot of experience forecasting tropical systems and the waters will be too cold to get that much. This is going to be a billion dollar disaster 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, SandySurvivor said: I wouldn’t forecast that high. I have a lot of experience forecasting tropical systems and the waters will be too cold to get that much. This is going to be a billion dollar disaster 100 billion? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just my 2-cents, but way too much emphasis on every tiny track or intensity change on every 6 hour model run. Not enough emphasis on the trends of the strength and physical layout of the west Atl. ridge to Henri's north and east, as well as the behavior of the OV upper level trough. Henri does not exist in a vacuum. It will only go where other large-scale features allow it to go. Closely monitor the position and changes & pressure tendencies of the Atlantic ridge's isobaric pattern. You have to continually ask yourself, does the modeled track make sense given the layout of the large-scale surface and upper air pressure / height pattern. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandySurvivor Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: 100 billion? I try to stay with realistic decisions. Great forecasters like myself inform others of what is the most likely outcome. 1 4 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said: I wouldn’t forecast that high. I have a lot of experience forecasting tropical systems and the waters will be too cold to get that much. This is going to be a billion dollar disaster He’s joking lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: He’s joking lol Sandy was a ~ 70 billion dollar disaster and this "SandySurvivor" just said 'more impactful than Sandy' Who's the joke lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, FXWX said: Just my 2-cents, but way too much emphasis on every tiny track or intensity change on every 6 hour model run. Not enough emphasis on the trends of the strength and physical layout of the west Atl. ridge to Henri's north and east, as well as the behavior of the OV upper level trough. Henri does not exist in a vacuum. It will only go where other large-scale features allow it to go. Closely monitor the position and changes & pressure tendencies of the Atlantic ridge's isobaric pattern. You have to continually ask yourself, does the modeled track make sense given the layout of the large-scale surface and upper air pressure / height pattern. I think we touched on that. Both the ridge to the east and trough to the west are not typical for us to get canes. So you don’t have that massive pressure gradient like in previous storms. So it’s sort of on its own as far as analogs. I think that is why wind field appears much tighter compared to other storms in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now