Spaizzo Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Off till Monday pm Heading to Newport, RI next couple days and maybe Nahant Monday am Why not block island? Maybe? Many will be cancelling their weekend overnights! However ferry service will stop Sunday and Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Maybe the ghost of James is willing this up to you guys? Sorry if that causes an issue with my post... but you know he would relish this 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Maybe the ghost of James is willing this up to you guys? Sorry if that causes an issue with my post... but you know he would relish this I was just thinking He is probably looking at the models now up there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZktngXkxTU Video Update on Henri 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Hmon Is pretty far west this run so far 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hmon Is pretty far west this run so far Don’t think an NJ/NYC/LI is off the table yet, especially with how far south and west it’s moving now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Don’t think an NJ/NYC/LI is off the table yet, especially with how far south and west it’s moving now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 The UK would begin to diminish SNE impact and focus on tri state. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 West shift coming on the HWRF 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: West shift coming on the HWRF How much of a westward shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: How much of a westward shift? Nearly 100 miles. From south of the Cape to south of the tip of Long Island 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: How much of a westward shift? Eastern Long Island track, but a rapidly weakening LP system. Really starts falling apart well offshore. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Looks like the 00z hurricane guidance shows no more OTS solutions. Man to be a fly on the wall at BOX or OKX right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Looks like the 00z hurricane guidance shows no more OTS solutions. Man to be a fly on the wall at BOX or OKX right now. 00z Euro rolling in with a Martha's Vineyard "landfall", yet in similar fashion to the HWRF a rapidly weakening system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Looks like 5 recon flights into Henri tomorrow. 3 low-level and two upper. 3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON GRACE WHILE IT REMAINS A THREAT. B. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON HENRI AT 20/2330Z. C. TWO MORE NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS AROUND HENRI FOR THE 21/0000Z AND 21/1200Z SYNOPTIC TIMES, DEPARTING KLAL AT 20/1730Z AND 21/0530Z. D. NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO HENRI DEPARTING KLAL AT 20/2000Z AND 21/0800Z. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Eye starting to show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 15 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Eye starting to show? Look at shortwave IR at night to see the low level cloud patterns better. LLC is still at the northern edge of the deepest convection. Starting to get covered up better now however. MLC and LLC don’t look totally vertically stacked yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Nam close to NYC. Weekend is saved here! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 hours ago, OSUmetstud said: UKMET hooks into Long Island and is near Newburg at 72 h. UKMET went into long island again? wtf. it's not like it's a bad model or anything. wonder why its been showing that multiple times now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Hurricane Watches coming shortly I bet on the 5am adv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 If this hooks into LI and NYC most of the area sees very little outside of CT and RI coasts. There is no ET transition and wind field is tight and not expanding. Kind of yawn solution. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: If this hooks into LI and NYC most of the area sees very little outside of CT and RI coasts. There is no ET transition and wind field is tight and not expanding. Kind of yawn solution. Then why does the 11pm disco say otherwise? " Transition to a post-tropical storm is expected to begin shortly thereafter which should be sometime in the 96-h to 120-h points as deep convection ceases over the storm over cold SSTs As noted previously, the wind field of Henri is expected to expand, especially as it interacts with a mid-latitude trough located to its west. Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast points as impacts will extend far from the center. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Then why does the 11pm disco say otherwise? " Transition to a post-tropical storm is expected to begin shortly thereafter which should be sometime in the 96-h to 120-h points as deep convection ceases over the storm over cold SSTs As noted previously, the wind field of Henri is expected to expand, especially as it interacts with a mid-latitude trough located to its west. Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast points as impacts will extend far from the center. " The winds on guidance don’t really show this. Maybe because normally we have a deep trough and low pressure west of the storm and a ridge to the east. This causes the pressure gradient to really tighten up on the east side. Sandy, Irene, Isaias etc all had this. We don’t have that with Henri. Henri looks to be a low end cat 1ish weakening before landfall as it slows over cooler waters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 However if Henri rapidly strengthened to a cat 2, I’d be a lot more concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MONTAUK * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM KINGS POINT TO MONTAUK * KINGS POINT NEW YORK TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET NEW YORK * WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR NEW YORK * WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: However if Henri rapidly strengthened to a cat 2, I’d be a lot more concerned. Think this ends up right in Ginx/Kev backyard. Models had Fred in Mobile and gradually came back east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Henri's low-level center has been peaking out from under the north side of the deep convective mass, resulting from continued 20-25 kt of northerly shear. Maximum winds are still estimated to be 55 kt based on T3.5 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Henri still has a motion toward the west-northwest, or 300/8 kt, but it is about ready to make the sharp right turn that we've been expecting. A shortwave trough currently over the central Appalachians is forecast to close off by Saturday, with Henri accelerating northward on the east side of this feature through the weekend. Some global models show Henri merging with the mid-/upper-level low as the cyclone approaches southern New England, which induces a slight bend of Henri's forecast track to the left. Nearly all track models now show Henri's center reaching the coast of southern New England, and the new NHC track forecast has been nudged westward in the direction of HCCA and the other consensus aids. After day 3, Henri is forecast to eject northeastward across the Gulf of Maine toward Atlantic Canada. The strong shear affecting Henri is forecast to begin weakening later today, and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that it could drop to less than 10 kt in about 36 hours. In addition, Henri will be traversing very warm waters for the next 48 hours before it crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream. Therefore, strengthening is anticipated for the next 2 days, with Henri likely to become a hurricane by Saturday. After 48 hours, Henri's expected slower motion over the colder water south of New England should induce quick weakening, but it may not be quick enough to keep Henri from reaching the coast as a hurricane. Faster weakening is anticipated after Henri's center moves over land, and simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that deep convection could dissipate by day 4, making Henri a post-tropical low at that time. Global models suggest that Henri may dissipate by day 5, but for the time being a day 5 point is being kept for continuity. Based on the new forecast, tropical-storm-force wind radii will be approaching the coast of southern New England in about 48 hours. Given the still-present uncertainties in Henri's future track and intensity and the hazards that the storm may cause, storm surge and hurricane watches are now being issued for portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast points as impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S. on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island are increasing. Hurricane and storm surge watches are now in effect for portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. 2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding over portions of southern New England Sunday into Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 30.2N 73.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 36.1N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 39.1N 71.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 41.1N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 42.2N 71.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/0600Z 43.5N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 25/0600Z 45.3N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If this hooks into LI and NYC most of the area sees very little outside of CT and RI coasts. There is no ET transition and wind field is tight and not expanding. Kind of yawn solution. Looks like a Maine weekend is aved. And so goes another scintillating tropical season in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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