ORH_wxman Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: so.....when folks are talking about big rains west of the center.....how far west are we talking? QPF queens unites. I’d say anyone within about 100 miles of the center on the western side will have to watch out for huge rains. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Nobody is going skinny dipping in DE Maine towards Eastport in the Atlantic unless you like innies........ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Nam is coming in well south and west through 30 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nam is coming in well south and west through 30 hours Post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nam is coming in well south and west through 30 hours Nam is the worst for tropical. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, Hoth said: Nam is the worst for tropical. Just preparing for the winter season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Just preparing for the winter season In that case, what's the SREFs show? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Just preparing for the winter season We are talking about half a foot plus of precipitation, so there is some similarity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Harvey Leonard says adjustments west needed and sounds bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 28 minutes ago, user13 said: It still has 2 days over really warm water Sea surface temp for a relatively slowly moving tropical system can really unravel them fast. Inversions happen and winds become lofted. Inner nest of HWRF shows this well with SST underlayment first set of model depictions. Look at what occurs as Henri slowly loses the gulf stream. Also note the upwelling ahead of the system. The warm water in New England waters is shallow and upwelling occurs quickly with strong NE, E winds. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 /thread 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Harvey Leonard says adjustments west needed and sounds bullishIsn’t he in at 11pm? Howd you here that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Patfan1987 said: Isn’t he in at 11pm? Howd you here that? Channel 5 broadcasts on metv at 10p 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Nam already showing a pre signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Channel 5 broadcasts on metv at 10pDidn’t realize that. Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 I’ll tell ya … should this meaningfully impact the region … it’ll be the only one that ever did so like this. you’ll have the standard paradigm where 90 % fit in … a smattering of outliers, than this one out there all alone. I really don’t think this is ever happened in totality - not synoptically in how those things interact with each other and causes things to happen - none of it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack66 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 NAM is 932mb at HR 49 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I’ll tell ya … should this meaningfully impact the region … it’ll be the only one that ever did so like this. you’ll have the standard paradigm where 90 % fit in … a smattering of outliers, than this one out there all alone. I really don’t think this is ever happened in totality - not synoptically in how those things interact with each other and causes things to happen - none of it The hook West then scoot East? It's definitely an odd evolution and I think we end up with a slightly more suppressed and East solution in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 It does seem to be trending south and west in the short term. Probably what we don't want to see, if we want minimum impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 The end of that 3K NAM run is gonna give the fearmongering Facebook and YouTube channels some great clickbate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 12k MTP-GON 3k Headed for LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 NAM scrapes Long Island on it's way to New Haven... it's the NAM though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 All that water up Long Island sound....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 NHC 11p track soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Little obscure but I’ve never seen this before 24 hours of easterly fetch coming into Logan and the hydrostatic hgts never fall below 575 dm. extraordinary 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 I like to hold the 3k NAM as the theoretical maximum of a current system. Plenty of systems have verified with the NAM before, but usually when they are in ideal conditions, or for whatever reason seem to "pull it off" given the current environment and overperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Jeez the thing just stalls out over NW CT on the NAM... if that plays out this is once-in-a-lifetime material... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 NAM mostly dry for SE NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Jeez the thing just stalls out over NW CT on the NAM... if that plays out this is once-in-a-lifetime material... Somebody in CT would smash rainfall records in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: 12k MTP-GON 3k Headed for LI Looks legit 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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