TalcottWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 I don't see how this isn't a cane by at least 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Clearly evident from the improvement on IR, but shear is analyzed to be decreasing per CIMSS. From 32kts earlier to 20kts now. (note the NHC analyzed 25kts earlier) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’ll take a 11pm NHC shift toward Newport for 500$ I think it’ll be shifted to a canal to Westport landfall at 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: They’re gonna enter PR mode soon and that’s when the flop is always high The cone will be broad and the next 24-36 it will tighten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 The winds still don’t look overly impressive away from the immediate shoreline. The rain will be the big story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 When's the next recon? Seems like really infrequent recon for a possible landfilling US cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, olafminesaw said: When's the next recon? Seems like really infrequent recon for a possible landfilling US cane They have to sample Grace too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Looking at water vapor map Henri is getting into some very favorable conditions right now and is still moving west there is a trough approaching from the west towards the East Coast that should turn Henri north bound probably tomorrow but how far west can he get first will be interesting. Now also there is an upper level low diving SSW across the central Great Lakes that will be the feature that would or could hook Henri to the west. All the players are on the table now it is just a waiting and timing game. What is very clear from the Water Vapor map presentation is it is all systems go where Henri is right now and he is clearly strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Clearly evident from the improvement on IR, but shear is analyzed to be decreasing per CIMSS. From 32kts earlier to 20kts now. (note the NHC analyzed 25kts earlier) It's super impressive that Henri never decoupled. Total Joaquin job. A lot to be said about divergent shear, even when those values would decapitate most systems. The crazy instability driving just enough intense convection rotating up draft to keep the vortex tilted versus sheared off. Tomorrow will be more about a big change in evacuation away from the vortex versus impediment to the upper half. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’ll take a 11pm NHC shift toward Newport for 500$ Seems like at least some shift should be considered yeah. Interesting. I keep coming back to Sandy and how those models had to shift left; the situation similarly although it was much more demonstrative back then. What started out turning left in Maine in the models ended up turning left into New Jersey… Now this time the U/A is not that strong and the block is also a weaker. These situations are so anomalous I don’t think models are really going to handle it very well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: The cone will be broad and the next 24-36 it will tighten. Cone is always the same size at the various lead times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Definitely has a good chance to take off tomorrow, but the shear has titled the vortex and the outflow is restricted to the north for now. Objective guidance has been running around T3.5, which supports strong TS, not hurricane. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Cone is always the same size at the various lead times. Gaining latitude, the cone will tighten in the New England region is the idea I think. Both correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 15 minutes ago, Diggiebot said: I think it’ll be shifted to a canal to Westport landfall at 11pm Ya , probably MVY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The winds still don’t look overly impressive away from the immediate shoreline. The rain will be the big story Yep. For now anyway. West side of the center looks primed for some sick rain totals. Models frequently underestimate the totals too in that zone on tropical systems...particularly inland where the terrain can enhance it some. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Gaining latitude, the cone will tighten in the New England region is the idea I think. Both correct. Yeah I guess I was just saying that it's independent. It's based on average track error at the lead time. it's not model spread or confidence dependent. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 25 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I am in Philadelphia forum but the water temp at ACY Atlantic City is 79 degrees and 83 in and around Cape May and Delaware bay thanks to persistent south and southeast winds due to Fred passing by to the east and the WAR building west over the past few days. Reposted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep. For now anyway. West side of the center looks primed for some sick rain totals. Models frequently underestimate the totals too in that zone on tropical systems...particularly inland where the terrain can enhance it some. I just think the cyclostrophic disk et al might get lifted over the top of the stabler oceanic boundary layer residing over the relatively colder shelf waters; then it becomes a wildcard weather mixes back down over land - assuming it gets that far nw and over ORH etc Whatever it’s gonna be very velocity Sheard so I think tornadoes could be enhanced in a situation like this this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Reposted What's with the dark blue east of Cape Cod and Nantucket? Doesn't seem realistic to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Reposted It still has 2 days over really warm water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: What's with the dark blue east of Cape Cod and Nantucket? Doesn't seem realistic to me? I think it’s cold water draining down from the gulf of Maine plus North Carolina deflects the Gulf Stream out to sea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: What's with the dark blue east of Cape Cod and Nantucket? Doesn't seem realistic to me? Labrador current. It’s always frigid water out on the east-facing outer Cape beaches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Diggiebot said: I think it’s cold water draining down from the gulf of Maine plus the mainland deflects the Gulf Stream out to sea Yeah i know that spot is generally cold, but 11C? The Grand Banks is 16 right now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MVOyster Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 That dark blue is the Labrador Current coming up against the western edge of the Great South Channel … an upwelling, pretty much constant 52deg F … hence the fog (glad I could finally contribute) 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 18z EPS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, MVOyster said: That dark blue is the Labrador Current coming up against the edge of the Great South Channel … an upwelling, pretty much constant 52deg F … hence the fog (glad I could finally contribute) Thanks. I didn't realize that it was that cold there at the moment. The upwelling part makes sense. It doesn't show up very well on the broader SST charts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 so.....when folks are talking about big rains west of the center.....how far west are we talking? QPF queens unites. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I just think the cyclostrophic disk et al might get lifted over the top of the stabler oceanic boundary layer residing over the relatively colder shelf waters; then it becomes a wildcard weather mixes back down over land - assuming it gets that far nw and over ORH etc Whatever it’s gonna be very velocity Sheard so I think tornadoes could be enhanced in a situation like this this Yeah if there’s a NW hook and the center goes into SE CT or something like that, then much of eastern SNE could be at risk for spin-ups as it would put us in the front right quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: 18z EPS Almost all of the strong ones are a hit, if I lived from New York to Bostin I would be concerned but its not time to panic yet still plenty of time for the track to shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Almost all of the strong ones are a hit, if I lived from New York to Bostin I would be concerned but its not time to panic yet still plenty of time for the track to shift. I would say we ahould have a really good idea in 18-24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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