Typhoon Tip Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I needs ( Euro ) to initialize the system deeper - deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Hooking to the left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 HWRF is almost identical to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 The Euro practically has an open wave at this latitude compared to the NHC forecast, GFS, UKMET, CMC which at least have some semblance of a tropical/extratropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I needs ( Euro ) to initialize the system deeper - deal with it. Global models seldom resolve the intensity of tropical systems accurately- deal with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I just want to see some surge and wind heres hoping In agawam? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Euro still wants to effectively kill it on Friday/Saturday. So that’ll be a whiff on this run. 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cat 1? The other guidance (minus Euro and Canadian) have Henri intensify nicely based on the environment parallel to the SE/Mid-Atlantic coast, but it’s moving way too slow verbatim to hit stronger than a 1 IMO as it’s on final approach. This far north you can basically lock in a hostile environment for a strong tropical system. It needs to move faster north of the Gulf Stream through landfall to compensate for the increasing rate of structural decay that would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I needs ( Euro ) to initialize the system deeper - deal with it. At initialization it's fine I think but given it doesn't spin up into much the whole run you might not put as much weight on it as normal. Intensity matters to track here I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Don’t need much in New England to cause problems, Irene and Isaias showed us the that; a week Cat 1 cause some issues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Global models seldom resolve the intensity of tropical systems accurately- deal with that. It's almost an open wave the whole time though lol. That's something else entirely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Global models seldom resolve the intensity of tropical systems accurate- deal with that. In this case the euro isn’t picking up much of a circulation, I think the resolution is more of an issue With euro /Henri because of the storms small size, it’s nearly missing it, and I’m not sure if this effects the model handling the steering flow and trough interaction due to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 The Euro has been pretty trash with tropical systems the past few-plus years. Just something to consider here 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro still wants to effectively kill it on Friday/Saturday. So that’ll be a whiff on this run. The other guidance (minus Euro and Canadian) have Henri intensify nicely based on the environment parallel to the SE/Mid-Atlantic coast, but it’s moving way too slow verbatim to hit stronger than a 1 IMO as it’s on final approach. This far north you can basically lock in a hostile environment for a strong tropical system. It needs to move faster north of the Gulf Stream through landfall to compensate for the increasing rate of structural decay that would happen. Yeah even the hefty 970some millibar HWRF would become unimpressive (wind wise) for those in SNE. Too slow and too much decay. In 18 hours, verbatim, it practically goes from a nicely stacked borderline CAT 2/3 cane to a slow moving, decaying TS/Low end Cat 1. Sure flooding would be bad for where it stalls, maybe horrific in spots. But if you're looking for 1938 type winds, well that was booking almost 50mph forward speed and this ain't that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 The slow stall would certainly help alleviate wind threat, but surge and fresh water flooding would likely be worse. It appears to me this will not be accelerating, so I wouldn't get too excited from winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: At initialization it's fine I think but given it doesn't spin up into much the whole run you might not put as much weight on it as normal. Intensity matters to track here I think. 5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: It's almost an open wave the whole time though lol. That's something else entirely. 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: In this case the euro isn’t picking up much of a circulation, I think the resolution is more of an issue With euro /Henri because of the storms small size, it’s nearly missing it, and I’m not sure if this effects the model handling the steering flow and trough interaction due to that Yea, its more pronounced than usual, sure...I was answering specifically to initialization. Its fine to disagree and explain a position like you guys have done, but the douchey, condescending tone isn't needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: The slow stall would certainly help alleviate wind threat, but surge and fresh water flooding would likely be worse. It appears to me this will not be accelerating, so I wouldn't get too excited from winds. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: In agawam? If seals can get up the CT River to Holyoke, so can surge lol https://www.westernmassnews.com/news/seal-sighted-along-connecticut-river-in-holyoke/article_bbe401f6-7dbd-11e9-9fcb-f7f5bdf558aa.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 The structure, although still tilted, is clearly closer to the other globals right now than the euro. Toss all the future NE implications aside, this structure makes it less likely to be completely gutted by shear in the next 24-48 hours before it reaches a more favorable environment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Actually euro slings it NW into Gulf of Maine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Global models seldom resolve the intensity of tropical systems accurately- deal with that. I am - the GFS is just such a Global instrument of mass destruction - LOL no, but I think that it is more trustworthy at least in the short term, seeing as it even knows it is there - the Euro doesn't make it abundantly clear that it is resolving Henri at point of initialization, it's not going to be subsequently clear that it is properly interacting with "reality" out in time just the same. As far as the GFS out in time.. mm,don't know about that whole looping shit though. Time to work that/track I guess. But a couple things occur to me. One, west Atlantic ridges are notoriously under handled. Sandy was originally into Maine ... end up near Cape May, much for the same reason, the -NAO/westerly biased block became more mechanical in the steering as a correction - the track shifted west and ultimately down the coast accordingly. Two, Fred appears to have ended up on the westerly envelope track - sometimes in situ synoptics repeat. Is this one of those times? Both these two facets may lean a climo inference toward a west position - hey, at least there's a clad logic to this reasoning. Also, I am seeing a primitive eye on vis this hour. A stronger system interacting with the surrounding medium "might" also alter matters. ..the impetus being, emerging eye may indicate strengthening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I’m liking my Hurricane Belle analogue this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: The structure, although still tilted, is clearly closer to the other globals right now than the euro. Toss all the future NE implications aside, this structure makes it less likely to be completely gutted by shear in the next 24-48 hours before it reaches a more favorable environment. Yeah euro is borderline tossable. It's basically not showing a TC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 15 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Hooking to the left? Weenie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I am not a tide guy ( @Ginx snewx), but this could have some truly epic coastal flooding along the south coast...that will be the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 The dude looks great on viz sat currently. Eye clearly starting to pop . Euro FTL it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 no wind threat? i'm out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 So it looks like to me that a stronger storm initially through the next day or so pushes the storm southwest (shear vector is out of the northeast). The after, a stronger storm should help build the WAR to the west of it. If you have a weak pos those two things don't happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I have a wind fetish as well. Even marginal TS gusts for 24 hours would be somewhat interesting and certainly make for some good wave watching. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, OSUmetstud said: So it looks like to me that a stronger storm initially through the next day or so pushes the storm southwest (shear vector is out of the northeast). The after, a stronger storm should help build the WAR to the west of it. If you have a weak pos those two things don't happen. That makes sense. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 It's bizarre seeing Henri approaching the U.S. from that azimuth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now