Tropical Storm Henri

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, radarman said:

I'll also sell a foot of rain.  I'd have to see to believe that around these parts for sure.  If it should happen I'll give props to folks.

Dude.. different scenario I know. But we had 5.5” today in 3 hours. And 22” since July 1. If Hank stalls. All bets off. All kinds of crazy stuff is possible . At this point.. all fun conjecture 

[bch2014]

As someone who lived through Harvey.. They said 3-5" of rain, and it became more like 30-50".

[radarman]

we'll see who blows by a foot "easily"

[TalcottWx]

Am I in looney land? A slow moving tropical storm or hurricane dumps a shit ton of moisture.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

we'll see who blows by a foot "easily"

I don’t know if it’s easy. But let’s say it sits over ISP to GON or wherever you want to face plant it. There will be massive totals to the NW. Look at Connie and Dirty Diane in 55’

[radarman]

FWIW, Diane (1955) is BOS all time record at 7".  Not sure what the max was for that one.

[KoalaBeer]

16 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

So any notable historic storms that slowed or stalled like some of these model runs?

Not that I’m aware of. Pretty much no historical analogs for this one. Nothing even remotely close to Bermuda has made landfall in New England before.

Credit Bob Henson/Jeff Masters for the image over at YCC.

 

 

Track of all tropical cyclones on record, going back to 1851, that passed within 120 nautical miles of Hartford, Connecticut, while still classified as hurricanes. (Image credit: NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks)

[radarman]

Seems like 16.8" was the max in Diane in CT.  That would qualify as easily.  Only the state's biggest flood ever.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, radarman said:

we'll see who blows by a foot "easily"

This…. Maybe it does happen, but I’d bet against it. This is New England after all 

[mob1]

Just now, radarman said:

Seems like 16" was the max in Diane in CT.  That would qualify as easily.  Only the state's biggest flood ever.

I think Westfield MA got close to 20 inches of rain. 

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Am I in looney land? A slow moving tropical storm or hurricane dumps a shit ton of moisture.

You can be right and radarman is right too.  12+ is a lot of water for New England.  Depends on the area though too…  Even widespread 4-8” is like full on Armageddon here in VT down to the Berks from the terrain (re Irene).

I could see the Cape taking 8-12” with some parking lot flooding.

I still think 12+ rainfall is a tough nut to crack but I’m more aligned with deep interior climo.

[TalcottWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

You can be right and radarman is right too.  12+ is a lot of water for New England.  Depends on the area though too…  Even widespread 4-8” is like full on 100 year Armageddon here in VT down to the Berks from the terrain.

I could see the Cape taking 8-12” with some parking lot flooding.

I still think 12+ rainfall is a tough nut to crack but I’m more aligned with deep interior climo.

I mean I'm not using 12" as some kind of bench mark here. I just have the over on 6". Double digits in places would be more or less my guess in a stall. 

[radarman]

worth noting, that Diane was a totally different track.  Straight firehose, almost like Boxing day or something. 

[powderfreak]

Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

I mean I'm not using 12" as some kind of bench mark here. I just have the over on 6". Double digits in places would be more or less my guess in a stall. 

Yeah 6+ is a shit ton of water.

Then again a gypsy moth farts and NE CT gets 3-5” water this summer so who knows.

[ma blizzard]

[Cyclone-68]

With all the rain that’s fallen here this summer I imagine we wouldn’t  need an absurd rain total to cause big problems. Those rain totals in Harvey while astounding at least fell in a region where it’s not completely unprecedented. I would imagine here in the cool northeast our ecosystem wouldn’t be able to handle an equivalent total but maybe someone with more knowledge than myself could expand on that.

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, radarman said:

Seems like 16.8" was the max in Diane in CT.  That would qualify as easily.  Only the state's biggest flood ever.

No quotes?

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah 6+ is a shit ton of water.

Then again a gypsy moth farts and NE CT gets 3-5” water this summer so who knows.

See my post on totals here since May 1 in Aug thread 

[Hoth]

24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't think it would be isolated...probably be within some sort of narrow swath

See Dianne as an example.

[dryslot]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I hate posting euro stuff. never knows what's allowed too. Hopefully I don't go to jail

lol on whats allowed.

[Torch Tiger]

27 minutes ago, Newman said:

Remember that Irene dropped 3-7" of rain across much of New England and caused tremendous problems in many places, you don't need Harvey levels of rain to destroy things.

Irene also dropped 10-12" in max zones moving fairly briskly

[olafminesaw]

yeah, a foot of rain at just about any interval  is really rare for boston.

[Hoth]

10 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

Beat me to it!

[WxWatcher007]

From the time the center pulled itself back from the brink of decoupling earlier today, both visible and IR have improved gradually in presentation, even as shear continues this evening. 

Hard to tell what's happening inside without recon, but new microwave images are coming in a few hours. 

[ma blizzard]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

From the time the center pulled itself back from the brink of decoupling earlier today, both visible and IR have improved gradually in presentation, even as shear continues this evening. 

Hard to tell what's happening inside without recon, but new microwave images are coming in a few hours. 

 

 

Def improvement since midday! Shear prob has maxed and slowly declining. CDO looks more symmetrical, outflow improving although still getting squashed on the N/NE sides. 

Any idea when the next recon flight is scheduled? 

[dryslot]

12" totals? I bet there will be lolis to 18", We can always adjust higher if needed................

[weatherwiz]

Looks like cloud tops are starting to cool in the vicinity of the center with cooling cloud tops. Though much of the convection is well south of the center 

[TalcottWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Looks like cloud tops are starting to cool in the vicinity of the center with cooling cloud tops. Though much of the convection is well south of the center 

Looked like a meso vortex se of the low in a pass earlier?

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Looked like a meso vortex se of the low in a pass earlier?

yeah that was kinda interesting 

[Sn0waddict]

Oh lord please don’t let the HMON verify.