Tropical Storm Henri

[TalcottWx]

It will be wild if we get a period of intensification over night. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Or it takes its time turning north, but by then the ULL almost moves it more NE because it does not have enough latitude for the ULL to dig down and tug it to the NNW. 

Yes...plenty can go wrong and usually does.

[Cyclone-68]

8 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

It will be wild if we get a period of intensification over night. 

I’d love to wake up and see the comment “Henri really bombed out overnight”

[WxWatcher007]

Final VDM. Pressure drop of 2mb but no eye information. Center a little NW. 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 19:46Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304
Storm Name: Henri
Storm Number & Year: 08 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 13 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 19:05:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29.63N 71.14W
B. Center Fix Location: 420 statute miles (675 km) to the WSW (244°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,439m (4,721ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 170° at 18kts (From the S at 21mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 48kts (55.2mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NE (48°) of center fix at 18:58:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 149° at 61kts (From the SSE at 70.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 46 nautical miles (53 statute miles) to the NE (49°) of center fix at 18:50:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 33kts (38.0mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 51 nautical miles (59 statute miles) to the SW (227°) of center fix at 19:21:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 303° at 39kts (From the WNW at 44.9mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the SW (224°) of center fix at 19:13:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph) which was observed 46 nautical miles (53 statute miles) to the NE (49°) from the flight level center at 18:50:00Z

[WeatherHappens]

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I’d love to wake up and see the comment “Henri really bombed out overnight”

"Henri sleeps with the fishes"

[40/70 Benchmark]

So we have seen the WNW shift...

[MVOyster]

Folks, longtime lurker who has tried to be quiet and learn the dark arts of New England weather forecasting. I live on the Vineyard, have an oyster farm and several commercial boats in the water. I’m getting spooked, pulled every boat I can out already but have a 35’ Downeaster with nowhere to go and a lot of oyster gear/rafts in the water … this may be The One, and I get excited for heavy weather like anyone … but this one, as currently modeled, would be disastrous … thanks for sharing your knowledge with us plebes - and remember that some of us with interests in Henri’s path are looking towards any possible guidance and forewarning … be safe.

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, MVOyster said:

Folks, longtime lurker who has tried to be quiet and learn the dark arts of New England weather forecasting. I live on the Vineyard, have an oyster farm and several commercial boats in the water. I’m getting spooked, pulled every boat I can out already but have a 35’ Downeaster with nowhere to go and a lot of oyster gear/rafts in the water … this may be The One, and I get excited for heavy weather like anyone … but this one, as currently modeled, would be disastrous … thanks for sharing your knowledge with us plebes - and remember that some of us with interests in Henri’s path are looking towards any possible guidance and forewarning … be safe.

Welcome

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Welcome

Welcome to the cult I mean club.

[ma blizzard]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So we have seen the WNW shift...

too early imo .. could easily be a wobble. If the LLC and MLC become more aligned even briefly, could go back to WSW heading in the short term too 

 

[jbenedet]

already at 998, deeper than the 12z euro has it at 12z tomorrow

[Sn0waddict]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

already at 998, deeper than the 12z euro has it at 12z tomorrow

The euro gets it down to 991mb but then weakens it.

[tiger_deF]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

already at 998, deeper than the 12z euro has it at 12z tomorrow

I still remember the days of "King Euro"

 

How the mighty have fallen... 

[weathafella]

I think it’s too early to micromanage this...

[MJO812]

Nam is way weaker

[MJO812]

More east also

[weatherwiz]

12z GEFS with a huge shift east

[WeatherHappens]

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

12z GEFS with a huge shift east

We can never get lucky with a hurricane 

[CoastalWx]

Using the NAM as if it's a good tropical model.  

[Damage In Tolland]

Potential hazards from Henri include:

* Damaging wind: highest winds will be focused east of track.
* Flooding rain: heaviest rain should be focused along/west of track.
* Storm surge flooding: focused east of track.

Keep in mind tides will be astronomically high this weekend
along both coasts. Track will ultimately tell us which coastline
is most at risk (east coast vs south coast) or if both will be
in play.

Models are in general agreement that the storm should be clear of
the area sometime late Monday night. The rest of next week is
expected to be followed by an unsettled pattern with humid
conditions and a daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Right now, it is advisable to begin preparing for a possible
landfalling storm in SNE - a good reference is
ready.gov/hurricanes. Onset of tropical storm force winds is
most likely first thing Sunday morning, so that is when
preparations need to be complete. Having extra cash on hand, gas
in vehicles, and non-perishable food are recommended if power
is lost for a time.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, MJO812 said:

We can never get lucky with a hurricane 

All of this is minute anyway. 

The only thing that matters is what Henri's strength, position, and movement is by this time tomorrow (actually several hours earlier).

The models could all of a sudden shift the track to Europe...doesn't mean anything.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

12z GEFS with a huge shift east

Now post EPS spAghetti 

[WxFreak11]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

We can never get lucky with a hurricane 

It’s still 3 days away! This will change many times before it’s set in stone. 

[WeatherHappens]

Just now, Pluffmud said:

It’s still 3 days away! This will change many times before it’s set in stone. 

trend

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Now post EPS spAghetti 

I hate posting euro stuff. never knows what's allowed too. Hopefully I don't go to jail

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I hate posting euro stuff. never knows what's allowed too. Hopefully I don't go to jail

Here I’ll post . Many more members stronger and west 

[Rtd208]

 

[kdxken]

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think it’s too early to micromanage this...

You must be new here.