WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 I knew it wouldn't be long before the model slander began 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: When are they sending recon aircraft? Recon has just started sampling the storm. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 another Tor war Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 12 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Strangest things tend to happen with significant -NAO blocking which we have. GFS too progressive. Ukie seems like a worst case based on climo. 12z Ukie/GFS 50/50 blend seems fair for a baseline case right now IMO. Good point. Can’t underestimate the NAO block here which is unseasonably strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Watch ... this will be the Euro run that destroys ISP to Keene with 100 mph event entry ending in 20" of stall rains ... .everyone's mood swarms like yellow-jacket's nest poked with Molly, ... only to have all the models then consensus on a track 30 Mi E of ACK - wah wah wahhhh 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 NOGAPs is way west, basically into NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Recon looks like it is approaching the center. Lowest extrapolated pressure so far is 1000.1mb at ~5k ft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 17 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Strangest things tend to happen with significant -NAO blocking which we have. GFS too progressive. Ukie seems like a worst case based on climo. 12z Ukie/GFS 50/50 blend seems fair for a baseline case right now IMO. Heh... I was just musing to self, "Weird - the 12z NAM solution looks like a blend between the UK/GFS and may be right) The NAM?! That's just not allowed man. That's how we know this thing's doing something that no model has yet depicted - anything to prevent the NAM from being right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Gotta start thinking of wind potential too. I mean even several hours of gusts 40-50 mph is going to produce some widespread tree damage/power outages given how wet we are and how much rain we could get. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Recon looks like it is approaching the center. Lowest extrapolated pressure so far is 1000.1mb at ~5k ft. I don’t see lower than 998 as is ..looking at it . Yesterday ..yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: NOGAPs is way west, basically into NYC It's ovah' guys. Worst model dumpster fire in recent memory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 12z HMON into the canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 19.6 71w looks like decent fix now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: 12z HMON into the canal. That would 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 12z HMON into the canal. Is that run off GFS parameters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Is that run off GFS parameters? I believe so, but don't quote me. Maybe someone else would know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Interesting so far. Like I was saying earlier, it looked like it was decoupling under the shear but that process stopped on visible. Recon is finding the center deeper within the convection. It'll probably have a strong tilt, but it's not separated from the data we have so far. Center is a little weaker than estimates though. Not sure what they'll find deeper within the convection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 78hr hwrf has Henri around 30mi south of MVY, 972mb, moving NNW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: 78hr hwrf has Henri around 30mi south of MVY, 972mb, moving NNW. That's kind of 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I believe so, but don't quote me. Maybe someone else would know. The hmon is run off gfs, yes. Just googled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Center dropsonde. Looks like the pressure is a touch lower than 1000mb. Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 17:41ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Name: HenriStorm Number: 08 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 07 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 18Z on the 19th day of the monthHighest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mbCoordinates: 29.6N 70.9WLocation: 408 statute miles (657 km) to the WSW (243°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (U.K.).Marsden Square: 080 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -2m (-7 ft) Other data not available. 925mb 686m (2,251 ft) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 22.3°C (72°F) 360° (from the N) 7 knots (8 mph) 850mb 1,425m (4,675 ft) 22.8°C (73.0°F) About 16°C (61°F) 270° (from the W) 4 knots (5 mph) Information About Radiosonde:- Launch Time: 17:31Z- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.Highest altitude where wind was reported:- Location: 29.58N 70.94W- Time: 17:31:08ZLowest altitude where wind was reported:- Location: 29.58N 70.94W- Time: 17:33:24ZMean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 15° (from the NNE)- Wind Speed: 8 knots (9 mph)Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 345° (from the NNW)- Wind Speed: 7 knots (8 mph)- Depth of Sounding: From 844mb to 999mbAverage Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:- Lowest 150m: 160 gpm - 10 gpm (525 geo. feet - 33 geo. feet)- Wind Direction: 10° (from the N)- Wind Speed: 8 knots (9 mph)Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 1000mb (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 25.2°C (77°F) 924mb 22.6°C (72.7°F) 22.1°C (72°F) 873mb 21.4°C (70.5°F) 18.9°C (66°F) 850mb 22.8°C (73.0°F) About 16°C (61°F) Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb (Surface) 5° (from the N) 8 knots (9 mph) 905mb 340° (from the NNW) 7 knots (8 mph) 882mb 310° (from the NW) 11 knots (13 mph) 871mb 315° (from the NW) 12 knots (14 mph) 866mb 320° (from the NW) 10 knots (12 mph) 854mb 285° (from the WNW) 6 knots (7 mph) 844mb 205° (from the SSW) 3 knots (3 mph) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 HWRF slows to Newport area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Data is a bit wonky by my eye, but there are FL winds between 55-60kts and some unflagged 47-48kt SFMR readings. Not bad given the shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: The hmon is run off gfs, yes. Just googled That’s what we suspected. So it moves east or west based on the op gfs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 12z HMON into the canal. Then heads due east from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 This thread is like training camp for the winter threads! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Game over man,game over!.....by this time time tomorrow i'll be making plans for a BBQ Sunday 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Euro is still very weak. Man if this ends up being a big storm the euro is gonna have to be sent to the graveyard. At least for tropical systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Euro at hr 54 is a disorganized mess hardly resembling a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Beautiful out there now ... That heavy rains pushed off and we're sort of left in this tropical bath with splashes of sun and interesting cloud-scapes. It's not 'hot' yet, so it's really kind of soothing. Fred's guts - In a symbolic way it's kind of like it laid a foundation perhaps - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, David-LI said: Euro at hr 54 is a disorganized mess hardly resembling a hurricane. It hardly resembles a storm let alone a hurricane lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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