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Tropical Storm Henri


wxeyeNH
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Just now, jbenedet said:

The most curious thing is UKie showing this  intensity with a slowdown over cool water. There’s def an UL phasing element to this, unlike other major guidance.

The ulvl low has seem to trend stronger on some models. Not a crazy ULJ but looks like a streak of 50-70 knots seems plausible. Orientation too would allow for some aided ulvl divergence 

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The ulvl low has seem to trend stronger on some models. Not a crazy ULJ but looks like a streak of 50-70 knots seems plausible. Orientation too would allow for some aided ulvl divergence 

Strangest things tend to happen with significant -NAO blocking which we have. GFS too progressive. Ukie seems like a worst case based on climo.
 

12z Ukie/GFS 50/50 blend seems fair for a baseline case right now IMO.

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1 minute ago, David-LI said:

When are they sending recon aircraft?

Today, but  I haven't been tracking that closely.  wxwatcher007 mentioned it earlier though

In addition 
to the Air Force aircraft that flies through the storm, the NOAA 
Gulfstream IV jet will also be flying around Henri later today to 
help assess the environmental conditions and gather data for the 
numerical models. It is hoped that these data will help the models 
more accurately predict the future track of the storm.

 

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