Cyclone-68 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Hurricane on? Hurricane off? Hurricane back on? Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: one op run and they spike the ball all based on final calls and who called it first lol I'm not even doing First Call until tomorrow...venting online is one thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, Cyclone-68 said: Hurricane on? Hurricane off? Hurricane back on? Lol It's still off until it's on. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 These sort of events provide such an interesting lens into cognitive behavioral biases. Confirmation and Overconfidence biases run amok! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: CMC coming in over ACK and looking to bend back W. Stalls. Over your fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 All kidding aside, I don't think anything changes right now. If all guidance moves east, than we do too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Over your fanny. Supah Soakah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: All kidding aside, I don't think anything changes right now. If all guidance moves east, than we do too. That we can all agree with. With the system already farther SW and stronger than GFS initialized and with window closing on east shifts OTS .. Its best to see what ens do this afternoon and if their west moves / clustering continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hearing Ukie sends near major into central LI Ukie also has it at 984 mb at 18z today .. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2021081912&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Ukie is big...966 near central LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 congrats NYC on the UKmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Recon should help a lot moving forward. It does seem next 24-36hrs are critical as to where it'll end up. A stronger system will tug further west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Ukie tossed. It's not 984mb right now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Laughable, The models cant even INI the right pressure for this so no way they would have the right track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 That leftward bend seems legit though. Big question is what shape the storm will be in when it reaches us. No where close to narrowing any intensity windows yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: Laughable, The models cant even INI the right pressure for this. And people expect a track 4 days out to be locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Recon starting its descent into the system now. The first thing to watch for will be how tilted the vortex is. It looked like decoupling was close on visible but the last few frames look like that has halted, at least for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Holy hell the flooding would be epic if this verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Holy hell the flooding would be epic if this verified. Tolland already got more than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: Tolland already got more than that. He be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 tornado warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Recon starting its descent into the system now. The first thing to watch for will be how tilted the vortex is. It looked like decoupling was close on visible but the last few frames look like that has halted, at least for now. If it decouples....it’s prob ovah. Not that it will just that would be a curveball 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 I think that gfs run might be an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Looks broad to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: I think that gfs run might be an outlier I also think that ukie is an outlier. I'd be looking between Montauk and Barnstable right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: And people expect a track 4 days out to be locked in. Not possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Looks broad to me. One near CT had debris earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 I'm interested in seeing if Henri has a symmetrical, concentrated wind profile, or one that is shallow with multiple wind maxima. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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