mob1 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: It’s alone. Good luck At least it has the entire hurricane model suite to keep it company. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Could just be my inner weenie but 12z GFS looks suspect. We won't anything until it actually begins moving Northward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 tropical systems always find a way to screw us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 It's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: At least it has the entire hurricane model suite to keep it company. Lol not even remotely close . Like I said . Good luck on that final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 All this does is further emphasize the point... stronger = west weaker = east 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, weatherwiz said: All this does is further emphasize the point... stronger = west weaker = east And when the GEFS come out and show almost no east solutions .. they’ll flip flop posts back west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol not even remotely close . Like I said . Good luck on that final call I'd put more money on your fantasy team, than I would this system having a huge impact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: All this does is further emphasize the point... stronger = west weaker = east Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 lol, Drifts north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 so we've gone from Harvey redux and worse than Sandy to it's over with one GFS run... 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, WeatherHappens said: tropical systems always find a way to screw us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, weatherwiz said: All this does is further emphasize the point... stronger = west weaker = east Amen Wiz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Weenie central in here 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 It's pretty straightforward. The track is very sensitive to intensity and that's across guidance. Been that way for days. Weaker solutions mean a further east track, and when you have globals trying to resolve TC intensity in a steering environment that's highly sensitive to it you'll get waffling. I wouldn't be locking onto anything strong or weak yet. Next 24 hours are critical. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: All this does is further emphasize the point... stronger = west weaker = east You can apply this to any LP system year round. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, radarman said: so we've gone from Harvey redux and worse than Sandy to it's over with one GFS run... one op run and they spike the ball all based on final calls and who called it first lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, radarman said: so we've gone from Harvey redux and worse than Sandy to it's over with one GFS run... We’re practicing for winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 NAM/GFS compromise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It's pretty straightforward. The track is very sensitive to intensity and that's across guidance. Been that way for days. Weaker solutions mean a further east track, and when you have globals trying to resolve TC intensity in a steering environment that's highly sensitive to it you'll get waffling. I wouldn't be locking onto anything strong or weak yet. Next 24 hours are critical. allot of TC rookies in here lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 What's the slosh map for the Bay of Fundy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: allot of TC rookies in here lol Tropical tracking ain't for the faint of heart lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 19, 2021 Author Share Posted August 19, 2021 I don't think Henri is going to be a big deal. Trend is now east. (I don't look at the NAM for tropical cyclones). Henri is not being yanked north in front of a late season trough so it will weaken as it approaches. Unless someone gets into the right quad which is becoming less likely there is not going to be a ton of wind. Coastal high tides might be the biggest factor. Still plenty of time for changes but set your expectations low on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 If anything the Global + hurricane models look like a slight nudge west with 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 I don't think Henri is going to be a big deal. Trend is now east. (I don't look at the NAM for tropical cyclones). Henri is not being yanked north in front of a late season trough so it will weaken as it approaches. Unless someone gets into the right quad which is becoming less likely there is not going to be a ton of wind. Coastal high tides might be the biggest factor. Still plenty of time for changes but set your expectations low on this one.There is no trend right now, previous model runs went west, 12z goes east... we need at least two consecutive runs to define a trend. Posts prior discuss the track sensitivity in the models, I think until we get a defined northerly turn that the models can ingest we are left with significant uncertainty on landfall point. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Hearing Ukie sends near major into central LI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 CMC coming in over ACK and looking to bend back W. Stalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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