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Tropical Storm Henri


wxeyeNH
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It's pretty straightforward. The track is very sensitive to intensity and that's across guidance. Been that way for days. Weaker solutions mean a further east track, and when you have globals trying to resolve TC intensity in a steering environment that's highly sensitive to it you'll get waffling. I wouldn't be locking onto anything strong or weak yet.  

Next 24 hours are critical. 

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5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It's pretty straightforward. The track is very sensitive to intensity and that's across guidance. Been that way for days. Weaker solutions mean a further east track, and when you have globals trying to resolve TC intensity in a steering environment that's highly sensitive to it you'll get waffling. I wouldn't be locking onto anything strong or weak yet.  

Next 24 hours are critical. 

allot of TC rookies in here lol

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I don't think Henri is going to be a big deal.  Trend is now east.  (I don't look at the NAM for tropical cyclones).   Henri is not being yanked north in front of a late season trough so it will weaken as it approaches.  Unless someone gets into the right quad which is becoming less likely there is not going to be a ton of wind.  Coastal high tides might be the biggest factor.  Still plenty of time for changes but set your expectations low on this one.

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I don't think Henri is going to be a big deal.  Trend is now east.  (I don't look at the NAM for tropical cyclones).   Henri is not being yanked north in front of a late season trough so it will weaken as it approaches.  Unless someone gets into the right quad which is becoming less likely there is not going to be a ton of wind.  Coastal high tides might be the biggest factor.  Still plenty of time for changes but set your expectations low on this one.
There is no trend right now, previous model runs went west, 12z goes east... we need at least two consecutive runs to define a trend. Posts prior discuss the track sensitivity in the models, I think until we get a defined northerly turn that the models can ingest we are left with significant uncertainty on landfall point.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

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