Tropical Storm Henri

[PowderBeard]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

Two, the compact structure they are also illustrating is unlikely at this latitude. It will almost have to be in transition to a hybrid/cooling core phenomenon, at which time it is spreading out over a larger circumvallate.  blah blah... this is all geo-physical and climo clad...

 

This is boggling my mind. Every model keeps it so compact and not taking on ET features. If it was moving 30+ mph from off the Carolinas to SNE I could see it, but being a slow mover and not taking on ET characteristics makes me think models are clueless. 

[CTFarmer]

LIS storm urge impact with multiple tide cycles compounding will be an issue, especially western sound. 

Aside from those who make a living on the water, most residents are totally unaware of this incoming for the weekend.

It does not take much. It only drains through the race or under the Brooklyn Bridge.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

NHC has it analyzed at 25kts per their discussion fwiw. I got 32kts from CMISS. 

Looks like it decreases significantly in about 24 hours. From the NHC discussion: 

The current north-northeasterly shear over Henri is forecast to 
continue for about another day, and given the degraded structure of 
the system it seems unlikely that the storm will strengthen during 
that time period.  However, the shear is expected to decrease on 
Friday and it will remain quite low through the weekend.  
Therefore, strengthening to a hurricane is expected during that 
time period.  Once Henri crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream 
in a few days, steady weakening is predicted.  The NHC intensity 
forecast is just an update of the previous one and lies near the 
middle of the guidance envelope.

I was looking for something less generalized I.e help to see a link to shear forecasts over next 6-24 hours 

Levi probably covers this in his next tropical tidbits video , yesterday he had showed conditions favorable by 15z but I was looking for something like cimss maps show but for future 

[weathafella]

Nice work morning crew!   NHC will likely landfall this up Narraganset by tomorrow’s 11AM update.

[Typhoon Tip]

This is like assuming one's loot while the tax man is about to take it all away - whaaaaa   

'oh, I forgot that this had a low chance of actually occurring in the first place'   

muah hahahaha

 

[Cyclone-68]

I realize it’s a bit early but what kind of PRE could we anticipate with this system?

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

11:00 A update maintains max winds of 70 mph

That's likely to remain the case while it looks like a comet head being ablated backward by solar winded stressing like that -

( that's a metaphor for shear )

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I was looking for something less generalized I.e help to see a link to shear forecasts over next 6-24 hours 

Levi probably covers this in his next tropical tidbits video , yesterday he had showed conditions favorable by 15z but I was looking for something like cimss maps show but for future 

Yeah I haven't come across anything like that. I just look at deep layer shear and maybe wind vectors at different heights on the Euro and GFS. 

[bristolri_wx]

If you look at the GFS ensembles, if this thing gets west of 73 degrees longitude, that dramatically increases the chances of it running right up the coast into our area.  How far west it gets before it starts to move north seems to be the key with this one... 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Had to post it.

[WxWatcher007]

The first recon flight is wheels up and en route to Henri. Looks like it's the low level recon flight. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Okay caught up ... whatever -

I still suggest that this thing needs to pass into some sort of stronger phase of intensification, such that it would be more proficiently sniffed out by the physical interpolations and/if not the outright empirical soundings, better.  

I annotated a post with a yellow box, yesterday, and that still seems to be the best geographical round-about region for that opportunity.  

Right now, ..it is encountering shear. But, from what I am seeing in the synoptic blends...proooably that continues until sometimes late tonight and tomorrow.  We'll see.

If/when that happens there may be some consensus gathering in the guidance. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The first recon flight is wheels up and en route to Henri. Looks like it's the low level recon flight. 

I wonder if Phil is the pilot 

[ineedsnow]

6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Had to post it.

Where is that from? 

12z ICON hooks into SNE

[radarman]

16 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I realize it’s a bit early but what kind of PRE could we anticipate with this system?

given that the northern stream s/w today might drag in a little dry air into NNE especially behind it, with the next one situated well back west of the lakes, and an U/L ridge moving overhead, it's not a typical setup for a PRE.  There may be some moisture advection out ahead through the baroclinic zone, but not a lot of lift to be had.

[SandySurvivor]

Key Messages:

1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S.
on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain 
impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island 
are increasing.  Watches will likely be required for portions of 
this area on Friday.  

My family and I will begin our evacuation plans this afternoon to beat the traffic

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully I can continue last winter's karma and have the latitude "screw" me...

It will, Next.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, radarman said:

given that the northern stream s/w today might drag in a little dry air into NNE especially behind it, with the next one situated well back west of the lakes, and an U/L ridge moving overhead, it's not a typical setup for a PRE IMO.

Yeah don't see a big PRE signal.

[Sn0waddict]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Where is that from? 

12z ICON hooks into SNE

It’s the 3k NAM. Ignore it lol

[Damage In Tolland]

We may cane 

[SandySurvivor]

This is going to be worse than Sandy

[40/70 Benchmark]

40 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I thought I read something on this a few years ago but is it true that in rare instances increased shear can strengthen (or act as a strengthening mechanism) a tropical system if it is aligned to the shear in a specific way.

It can act an an outflow channel...I think that is what scooter is alluding to.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said:

This is going to be worse than Sandy

No way

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said:

Key Messages:

1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S.
on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain 
impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island 
are increasing.  Watches will likely be required for portions of 
this area on Friday.  

My family and I will begin our evacuation plans this afternoon to beat the traffic

You will def beat the traffic ...

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It can act an an outflow channel...I think that is what scooter is alluding to.

I meant that for whatever reason, it seems like when these things head WSW and then slow and turn to the NW-N..they gain intensity. Prior to any outflow channel. 

[tiger_deF]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

No way

For NY/LI/Mid-Atlantic? Yeah Sandy will almost certainly be worse. I think the localized impacts may end up being worse for the Cape and some of SE new England.

[Damage In Tolland]

Beer up folks 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Beer up folks 

Plan on it.  Natures all in one meal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah I haven't come across anything like that. I just look at deep layer shear and maybe wind vectors at different heights on the Euro and GFS. 

This page has it, but for some reason, the forecast maps are from February right now...I used it last season.

https://www.trackthetropics.com/atlantic-wind-shear-maps/

[Cyclone-68]

Milk, bread, alcohol, and edibles will see us through