Tropical Storm Henri

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That would be worse..Bob was skimming NE, this is being obsorbed NNW.

Yeah...this is no analog frankly, not synoptic, not origin, not anything other than the concept of "TC" in general -

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is a great visualization on what to watch for. Henri is holding right now, because both the low and mid level vortexes are robust but shear is analyzed at nearly 32kts currently. Decoupling could have a significant impact on later intensification and track.

 

Seems huge . Those tilted systems always seems to max around 70-80 mph as they take too long to put themselves Back together in away that promotes serious strengthening and Intensity models Are not reliable enough gauging the separation  between the tilted lows

So it seems that a now cast of that Situ is key to intensity and even perhaps track ( as 12z models may not have a good grasp of each till We see how tilted Henri is to midnite or so 

[Baroclinic Zone]

This NAM run is a threat.

[weatherwiz]

11:00 A update maintains max winds of 70 mph

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

This NAM run is a threat.

Quite concerning for sure 

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Think smaller scale Allison (2001) or Harvey in that case 

I saw that damage first-hand a few months later in 01, also Rita.  Insane rain totals

[Sn0waddict]

12 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Looks east of 6z but definitely stronger so far.  My guess is it’s a strong storm hitting the cape? 

Eh still pulls west last minute. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

 

Still catching up and excoriating when not making fun of everyone ... LOL   j/k ( assholing is fun sometimes, sue me!)

But this solution and that UKMET dream-boat storm enthusiast long lost love of life returning to make things right solution...  stress plausibility for a lot of reasons.

Having said that, ...yeah, not numb to the notion that this is very consistently being handled by some of these guidance.  I haven't yet seen the rest of the reaction to the Euro, nor much mention to the 06z versions, - but I still would not trust those off mains and or Euro, even if the Euro 'seemed' to initialize better.

I think part of the problem with the Euro isn't just the initialization - it is systemically not agreeing with the other model on the intensity - perhaps - for native physical computational analysis to that model.   That's a rabbit hole -

Still just a monitoring thing - exciting?  Yup, but we are like .... yellow alert just yet.

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Wxwatcher when does shear start to abate 

32 knots of shear seems rough 

[MJO812]

Right over eastern LI

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

NAM would drown western CT

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Full moon on Sunday. A blue moon. 
 

“Once in a blue moon?” 
 

The slower movement but longer duration could mean a bigger threat for coastal flooding than it appears. Surge likely lessened but wave heights greatened. Henri has already been building seas across LI and SNE given his unusual track near Bermuda, in the neighborhood of the mid latitudes.

That would be an interesting study

     ( page 11 now ...)

How does the greater ambit of law enforcement handle both spikes in violent crime and homicide because of that Full Moon jazz, while there is carrying on with a category 1 or 2 blow ?

Now that's an interesting convergence of teleconnections there.  LOL.  I mean wow

Or, it will be kind of darkly comical to have all these mayhem enraged moon zombies having no where to act out, BECAUSE the storm is blocking their access to assault targets.  It's like having to call the game in the 5th inning because of the weather -

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Wxwatcher when does shear start to abate 

32 knots of shear seems rough 

I think later tomorrow, then later tomorrow night and Saturday is favorable.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Wxwatcher when does shear start to abate 

32 knots of shear seems rough 

NHC has it analyzed at 25kts per their discussion fwiw. I got 32kts from CMISS. 

Looks like it decreases significantly in about 24 hours. From the NHC discussion: 

The current north-northeasterly shear over Henri is forecast to 
continue for about another day, and given the degraded structure of 
the system it seems unlikely that the storm will strengthen during 
that time period.  However, the shear is expected to decrease on 
Friday and it will remain quite low through the weekend.  
Therefore, strengthening to a hurricane is expected during that 
time period.  Once Henri crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream 
in a few days, steady weakening is predicted.  The NHC intensity 
forecast is just an update of the previous one and lies near the 
middle of the guidance envelope.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS would be a lot of 60-75mph gusts even on the west side through SE MA near into BOS with all that rain. Pretty wild.

Here's the thing ... ( you didn't ask, but it's a straw-man op )

A slow moving cyclone does not have the west side wind subtraction mechanics.  When that happens,  ... keeping in mind, that is an artifact of the forward motion of the cyclone arithmetically offsetting the wind speed over the western sector - ... slow moving thus means, less subtraction.

In that simple aspect, yeah... west or east wouldn't matter in this case - or matter less than the typical climo of a "Long Island Express"

Having said that, I have a problem with these UKMET and 06Z GFS solutions for an ambrosia of pretty obvious limitations.

One, ...as you and Ray and me and anyone else sentient to the field knows, ...slow moving TC's over cold water doesn't lend to UKMET/GFS glory.  In fact, opposite... So why they are doing that maintaining intensity is a mystery considering slow movement.  

Two, the compact structure they are also illustrating is unlikely at this latitude. It will almost have to be in transition to a hybrid/cooling core phenomenon, at which time it is spreading out over a larger circumvallate.  blah blah... this is all geo-physical and climo clad...

 

[ineedsnow]

Cone shifted west a little at the 11am update

[TalcottWx]

Cat 1 is a lock. I wonder if he can run at cat 2?

[drstuess]

Flight arriving at 4 pm into pvd on Sunday, seems like a 50-50 chance?

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[CoastalWx]

Sometimes when these move WSW and then shear relaxes as it pulls NW-N..these things intensify quickly.

[TalcottWx]

Nhc tracks it over chatham

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Sometimes when these move WSW and then shear relaxes as it pulls NW-N..these things intensify quickly.

I thought I read something on this a few years ago but is it true that in rare instances increased shear can strengthen (or act as a strengthening mechanism) a tropical system if it is aligned to the shear in a specific way.

[Bostonseminole]

3 minutes ago, drstuess said:

Flight arriving at 4 pm into pvd on Sunday, seems like a 50-50 chance?

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yeah, I'm moving my trip out to week after

[WxWatcher007]

A couple of important points from that 11am disco

1) despite the shear, objective analysis still has a strong TS to low end hurricane currently. Recon will sort that out but given the shear we're seeing Henri is hanging tough so far. 

2) It's still moving south of due west. Seems like a small thing, but that probably increases the likelihood of a more westward track as it parallels the coast, which puts it in a better TCHP/SST environment. 

3) NHC hasn't latched onto the stall/loop idea, but it has discussed acceleration more as it comes north. Definitely worth watching because that's how we'd get better winds up here. Slowing with rapid decay won't get it done. 

4) Note the language when talking about shear. Henri should find a favorable environment for intensification if shear is very low, especially if it is able to continue with at least a strong mid level vortex and deep convection. 

5) They also note the expansion of the wind field as it heads north. 

[SnoSki14]

In terms of surge/coastal impacts what would be the worst case for the landfall location. 

Cape, RI/CT, SE MA? 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Noting a bit of a precarious trend.......here is an excerpt from latest TPC discussion.

 However, both the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles continue to show 
a wider assortment of solutions, with stronger storms tending to 
move closer to the U.S. coast and weaker storms moving farther 
offshore. With the tight clustering of the current guidance, the 
trajectory of the new NHC track forecast was not changed much from 
the previous iteration, although it is a little faster during the 
time that Henri accelerates to the north.

Okay, well ...if that is the case, that may help offset the latitude vs structure/intensity argument.  I'm mid way through Page 11 in catching up LOL

[CoastalWx]

Trump on duty at NHC?

 

 

[drstuess]

yeah, I'm moving my trip out to week after

Was hoping to sneak in and get a surf in before dark, but might have to push back to Monday.

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[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

In terms of surge/coastal impacts what would be the worst case for the landfall location. 

Cape, RI/CT, SE MA? 

Anything E of tip of LI would be bad.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I thought I read something on this a few years ago but is it true that in rare instances increased shear can strengthen (or act as a strengthening mechanism) a tropical system if it is aligned to the shear in a specific way.

Shear vector and height matter a lot. 

Last year, Isaias went from unfavorable to favorable environment as it was paralleling the FL/Carolina coast because of the heading change. I believe that also was the case for Dorian as it started going up the same region. 

For Fred, we saw less deep layer shear near the FL panhandle that allowed it to organize (though not fully) despite decent shear at higher levels. 

[WxFreak11]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Trump on duty at NHC?

 

 

On this track just posted it looks like Henri should be taking on a west-wnw track soon. As of right now it’s still moving just south of west so i feel like the longer it takes to turn toward the north the more adjustments west are likely but that’s just amateur opinion.