Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Tropical Storm Henri


wxeyeNH
 Share

Recommended Posts

IMO. how models initialize strength right now is pretty useless for the overall picture here. Until we see how

1) Henri fully responds to the stronger shear through today

2) How much Henri intensifies when it moves into a more favorable environment...and it is this overall which will large depict what happens.

The only thing model initialization is going to impact is {model} evolution of the storm. 

All we know right now is a range of possibilities. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

IMO. how models initialize strength right now is pretty useless for the overall picture here. Until we see how

1) Henri fully responds to the stronger shear through today

This is what I'm watching. Tonight's updates will have people panicking or weenies saying "it can still ______."

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm going to wager that we probably see a consensus from the GEFS start to shift east and this is purely based on the intensity guidance (which I'm not going to take at 100% face value) but there is pretty strong consensus of peak intensity with only a few members going into cat 2/borderline cat 3 strength. However, there is a bit of a spread as to how strong of a cat 1 this could get. 

08L_intensity_latest.png

Intensity guidance seems to have underestimated storm strength the last several years although if my recollection is right they have mostly been in the Gulf.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, PowderBeard said:

This is what I'm watching. Tonight's updates will have people panicking or weenies saying "it can still ______."

yeah until we have a clearer picture of Henri's strength/structure some of the details being focused on are pretty minute. Like Ray said, the fetish regarding model initialization strength is very strange.  

1 minute ago, wkd said:

Intensity guidance seems to have underestimated storm strength the last several years although if my recollection is right they have mostly been in the Gulf.

Agreed, which is why I' not 100% taking this at face value. It can be thrown out the window any time there is an opportunity for RI but I don't think we'll see any RI with this...despite the SSTA's being a few degrees C above-average they're still only around +28C to +29C which is a bit below the threshold that you would like to see for RI. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, weatherwiz said:

yeah until we have a clearer picture of Henri's strength/structure some of the details being focused on are pretty minute. Like Ray said, the fetish regarding model initialization strength is very strange.  

Agreed, which is why I' not 100% taking this at face value. It can be thrown out the window any time there is an opportunity for RI but I don't think we'll see any RI with this...despite the SSTA's being a few degrees C above-average they're still only around +28C to +29C which is a bit below the threshold that you would like to see for RI. 

I get why the EURO yesterday was giving people pause...it wasn't even showing a storm, or a very faint representation of one....but this "it initialized at 1001mb and its already 991mb" is asinine. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get why the EURO yesterday was giving people pause...it wasn't even showing a storm, or a very faint representation of one....but this "it initialized at 1001mb and its already 991mb" is asinine. 

When it comes to tropical I put very little stock in the Euro. It's been pretty horrendous the past few years in that department. 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is a great visualization on what to watch for. Henri is holding right now because both the low and mid level vortexes are robust but shear is analyzed at nearly 32kts currently. Decoupling could have a significant impact on later intensification and track.

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Euro looks much more realistic with regard to Henri’s organization at initialization and hour 24 so far. 

I'm back at page 10 giggling, then rolling eyes....then scratching forehead over post - nice... 

But, they probably went in and force the Euro initialization by plugging in numbers.   When is that organization going to admit that their product is an interpolation more so than an organic physical process, a suspicion that gets exposed at the boundaries of the domain like tropics and so forth...  Heh - sumpin like that.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...