Cyclone-68 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just heard some thunder. Epic next few days coming in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIsound Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 picture from West End of Hartford this am 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: After this morning in CT, I'm more concerned than I was yesterday about hydro impacts. We don't need a direct hit to see significant flash flooding issues. Yea, I hope it stalls down there....my basement has had enough issues this summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Hopefully I can continue last winter's karma and have the latitude "screw" me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 IMO. how models initialize strength right now is pretty useless for the overall picture here. Until we see how 1) Henri fully responds to the stronger shear through today 2) How much Henri intensifies when it moves into a more favorable environment...and it is this overall which will large depict what happens. The only thing model initialization is going to impact is {model} evolution of the storm. All we know right now is a range of possibilities. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not sure you are being entirely honest with us....lol Whatever you say. Enjoy your hurricane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, kdxken said: I think it would be more than flash flooding. We get a direct hit and stall here from a cat 1 it'd be catastrophic in parts of the state. But we're a long way off from the worst case scenario... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: IMO. how models initialize strength right now is pretty useless for the overall picture here. Until we see how 1) Henri fully responds to the stronger shear through today This is what I'm watching. Tonight's updates will have people panicking or weenies saying "it can still ______." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm going to wager that we probably see a consensus from the GEFS start to shift east and this is purely based on the intensity guidance (which I'm not going to take at 100% face value) but there is pretty strong consensus of peak intensity with only a few members going into cat 2/borderline cat 3 strength. However, there is a bit of a spread as to how strong of a cat 1 this could get. Intensity guidance seems to have underestimated storm strength the last several years although if my recollection is right they have mostly been in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Yeah, Nammy much stronger thru 06z Sat. 983mb vs 996mb. A but slower and just a bit S & E. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 I’ve had 21” of rain here in Julorch and Augdewst combined. Let’s throw on another 10”+ with some wind 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 I'm worried. All of this rain. And now a hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah, Nammy much stronger thru 06z Sat. 983mb vs 996mb. A but slower and just a bit S & E. Still alot stronger at hour 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully I can continue last winter's karma and have the latitude "screw" me... Not sure you're being completely honest. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, wkd said: Not sure you're being completely honest. LOL I am...I don't want 12" of rain. Honest truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, PowderBeard said: This is what I'm watching. Tonight's updates will have people panicking or weenies saying "it can still ______." yeah until we have a clearer picture of Henri's strength/structure some of the details being focused on are pretty minute. Like Ray said, the fetish regarding model initialization strength is very strange. 1 minute ago, wkd said: Intensity guidance seems to have underestimated storm strength the last several years although if my recollection is right they have mostly been in the Gulf. Agreed, which is why I' not 100% taking this at face value. It can be thrown out the window any time there is an opportunity for RI but I don't think we'll see any RI with this...despite the SSTA's being a few degrees C above-average they're still only around +28C to +29C which is a bit below the threshold that you would like to see for RI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah, Nammy much stronger thru 06z Sat. 983mb vs 996mb. A but slower and just a bit S & E. Nammy gon wild this run. Down to 979mb Only 16mb stronger than 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 12 minutes ago, BIsound said: picture from West End of Hartford this am kevin was running multiple water hoses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 NAM doing NAM things. 12z 975mb through 12z Sat vs. 992mb on the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 17 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: 1955 redux? That's a tall bar. And flooding back then extended from BDL west into the NJ/NY/PA tri-state region. A mini-55 would be bad enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Tornado warning Worcester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, weatherwiz said: yeah until we have a clearer picture of Henri's strength/structure some of the details being focused on are pretty minute. Like Ray said, the fetish regarding model initialization strength is very strange. Agreed, which is why I' not 100% taking this at face value. It can be thrown out the window any time there is an opportunity for RI but I don't think we'll see any RI with this...despite the SSTA's being a few degrees C above-average they're still only around +28C to +29C which is a bit below the threshold that you would like to see for RI. I get why the EURO yesterday was giving people pause...it wasn't even showing a storm, or a very faint representation of one....but this "it initialized at 1001mb and its already 991mb" is asinine. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I get why the EURO yesterday was giving people pause...it wasn't even showing a storm, or a very faint representation of one....but this "it initialized at 1001mb and its already 991mb" is asinine. When it comes to tropical I put very little stock in the Euro. It's been pretty horrendous the past few years in that department. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 This is a great visualization on what to watch for. Henri is holding right now because both the low and mid level vortexes are robust but shear is analyzed at nearly 32kts currently. Decoupling could have a significant impact on later intensification and track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: Tornado warning Worcester wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Looks east of 6z but definitely stronger so far. My guess is it’s a strong storm hitting the cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Considering Henri is directly under 32kt of Northerly unfavorable shear, he isn't looking too bad this AM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: wrong thread I figured it might be good to warn people reading this thread 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro looks much more realistic with regard to Henri’s organization at initialization and hour 24 so far. I'm back at page 10 giggling, then rolling eyes....then scratching forehead over post - nice... But, they probably went in and force the Euro initialization by plugging in numbers. When is that organization going to admit that their product is an interpolation more so than an organic physical process, a suspicion that gets exposed at the boundaries of the domain like tropics and so forth... Heh - sumpin like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: Considering Henri is directly under 32kt of Northerly unfavorable shear, he isn't looking too bad this AM would be hilarious to see this thing weaken as the shear lessens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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