crossbowftw3 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said: You have to figure if this stalls the rain amounts and flooding could be historic in places Think smaller scale Allison (2001) or Harvey in that case 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Erosion would be the least of your concerns in some of these solutions. Ya - was just going by the current mean which seems to be near/east..but not west of the Cape. A storm like this could destroy the boardwalk, which is already in pretty bad condition. On second thought, demolition of it has been approved so maybe this will save them some work https://www.capecodtimes.com/story/news/2021/07/16/sandwich-boardwalk-ma-demolished-new-boardwalk-meet-ada-access-requirements-federal-flood-code/7939097002/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 That EPS graphic is awesome. Pretty easy to see where the ones that go a hair to the WSW go. They are also stronger. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 FWIW, the 06z NAM is at tip of LI at the end of it's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: You have to figure if this stalls the rain amounts and flooding could be historic in places Was just thinking that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That EPS graphic is awesome. Pretty easy to see where the ones that go a hair to the WSW go. They are also stronger. I'm starting to hedge towards a a more western track that bends towards the cape late in the game and decelerates before drifting away.....would devastate cape cpd. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 I haven’t even really looked yet. Still dealing with Connie…I mean Fred’s flooding… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Those HWRF runs would be a disaster. Probably moreso with freshwater flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 I'm going to wager that we probably see a consensus from the GEFS start to shift east and this is purely based on the intensity guidance (which I'm not going to take at 100% face value) but there is pretty strong consensus of peak intensity with only a few members going into cat 2/borderline cat 3 strength. However, there is a bit of a spread as to how strong of a cat 1 this could get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Eps is still all over considering how close this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Deep Deep thunder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He does this with every event. Snow, thunder...you name it. Toes... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Deep Deep thunder They're discontinuing this page after the 31st Says you can email to request access to the new page but what is meant by call sign??? Ham radio call sign??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Those HWRF runs would be a disaster. Probably moreso with freshwater flooding. 1955 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Deep Deep thunder Leave it to Ant to run models on his old Atari to find a NYC track. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, Diggiebot said: And with this the supermarket shelves will be barren. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Deep Deep thunder I would not discount a west trend. Every coastal or tropical system in the last several years was shoved further west due to a stronger WAR. If this were a winter coastal I'd still be nervous that it gets tucked in. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Leave it to Ant to run models on his old Atari to fine a NYC track. He's pulling hard for a Sandy 2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, SnoSki14 said: I would not discount a west trend. I live in New jersey 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Leave it to Ant to run models on his old Atari to find a NYC track. Definitely I'm still looking for a link for the FIM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Heads up Nam is alot stronger than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Definitely I'm still looking for a link for the FIM. www.iamaweenie.com 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't want a storm. Dealt with enough nonsense with Sandy and Isaias flooded my basement. Just pointing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: 1955 redux? After this morning in CT, I'm more concerned than I was yesterday about hydro impacts. We don't need a direct hit to see significant flash flooding issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Heads up Nam is alot stronger than 6z It initialized at 991mb, thought it was still 995mb. Every mb makes a difference right now haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: After this morning in CT, I'm more concerned than I was yesterday about hydro impacts. We don't need a direct hit to see significant flash flooding issues. Yes...I am quite concerned about this here. I'm not concerned about winds...though a prolonged period of even 30-40 mph or 40-50 mph gusts would be quite problematic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: After this morning in CT, I'm more concerned than I was yesterday about hydro impacts. We don't need a direct hit to see significant flash flooding issues. I think it would be more than flash flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I don't want a storm. Dealt with enough nonsense with Sandy and Isaias flooded my basement. Just pointing it out. I'm not sure you are being entirely honest with us....lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 All we need here in CT is 60 mph gusts. With saturated soils , trees will topple like dominos 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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