tiger_deF Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 It's worth pointing out that the SST's off the coast are running 2-3+ degrees Celsius above normal, which could potentially be lifting the relative latitude where a cyclone is able to maintain tropical characteristics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 MAN EPS like stalls it practically over the Cape area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Zzzz…. Probably gusts to 40 here and some rain. 40? That’s generous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, SnowEMass said: 40? That’s generous He does this with every event. Snow, thunder...you name it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 I'm keeping my expectations low 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 On the one hand...we all know to err on the conservative side in relation to tropical impacts across the northeast, as systems often end up with less longitude than originally forecast....however, another important consideration is that these "stall and meander scenarios" are also often exaggerated among guidance...especially with respect to a tropical entity in the mid latitudes. Thus it is a very precarious position to have the idea of a less destructive tropical impact dependent upon the whole "slow to a haul upon approach to New England" scenario, which is quite the anomaly in and of itself. It straddles the precipice of hypocrisy to summarily dismiss the notion of a destructive landfall in New England due to the assumption that this thing will grind to halt at 41* latitude. Lots to consider over the next day as I ponder First Call...I am conflicted. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: He does this with every event. Snow, thunder...you name it. He's the ant-Rev 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Zzzz…. Probably gusts to 40 here and some rain. This looks like a 970ish 980ish storm up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Can’t wait for this thing to make the perfect “blizzard” loop south of the islands, not make landfall and give us just some high surf and light rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: MAN EPS like stalls it practically over the Cape area. Consider the impact of a system that grinds to a halt POST landfall...worst case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: On the one hand...we all know to err on the conservative side in relation to tropical impacts across the northeast, as systems often end up with less longitude than originally forecast....however, another important consideration is that these "stall and meander scenarios" are also often exaggerated among guidance...especially with respect to a tropical entity in the mid latitudes. Thus it is a very precarious position to have the idea of a less destructive tropical impact dependent upon the whole "slow to a haul upon approach to New England" scenario, which is quite the anomaly in and of itself. It straddles the precipice of hypocrisy to summarily dismiss the notion of a destructive landfall in New England due to the assumption that this thing will grind to halt at 41* latitude. Lots to consider over the next day as I ponder First Call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Navgem 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 congratulations on the blizzard i mean cane bang. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 12z models like to hang near the Cape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 System looks decent for being in such a heavily sheared environment. I'd be preparing if I lived in eastern NE. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 2+ hurricane prior to landfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 12z models like to hang near the Cape. Decent shift west I want it up my fanny 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: On the one hand...we all know to err on the conservative side in relation to tropical impacts across the northeast, as systems often end up with less longitude than originally forecast....however, another important consideration is that these "stall and meander scenarios" are also often exaggerated among guidance...especially with respect to a tropical entity in the mid latitudes. Thus it is a very precarious position to have the idea of a less destructive tropical impact dependent upon the whole "slow to a haul upon approach to New England" scenario, which is quite the anomaly in and of itself. It straddles the precipice of hypocrisy to summarily dismiss the notion of a destructive landfall in New England due to the assumption that this thing will grind to halt at 41* latitude. Lots to consider over the next day as I ponder First Call...I am conflicted. Almost leads me to believe models may shift/ move off this idea for at least our area ..seems threading the needle with regard to timing of a Transitory block and positioning of a trough to our west . Next 24 hours (as usual) are huge for models as Those features come into better focus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Almost leads me to believe models may shift/ move off this idea for at least our area ..seems threading the needle with regard to timing of a Transitory block and positioning of a trough to our west . Its probably mainly a higher impact for the cape if anyone in the end, and super soaker period for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its probably mainly a higher impact for the cape if anyone in the end, and super soaker period for us. Oh ya . I have no real hope for winds in Nashua. It’s a niche but my interest is almost purely in the swell and costal flooding aspect from RI to E ma and high end is on the table , not a lock but looks like some action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 12z models like to hang near the Cape. Certainly a noticeable shift west towards the GEFS. Still a decent amount of spread though between the globals/hurricane models and GFS. What caves to which? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Some of the EPS members that take this further west at lower latitudes (before the N turn) bring this N and NNW into central L.I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Some of the EPS members that take this further west at lower latitudes (before the N turn) bring this N and NNW into central L.I It seems to be losing a bit more latitude than forecast.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Oh ya . I have no real hope for winds in Nashua. It’s a niche but my interest is almost purely in the swell and costal flooding aspect from RI to E ma and high end is on the table , not a lock but looks like some action 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Certainly a noticeable shift west towards the GEFS. Still a decent amount of spread though between the globals/hurricane models and GFS. What caves to which? My gut is saying this is bad news for the cape, and a large nuisance, elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It seems to be losing a bit more latitude than forecast.... I think that needs to be watched for a more prolonged w/ wsw motion . So far there are no ensembles that take it far enough WSW to miss the N turn from Ohio valley trough Friday , so I assume that idea is off the table and this is basically a lock to make it east of OBX and be somewhere well off Delmarva by Saturday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Compared to 0z, I don't think you can definitively say the 6z EPS came west (at least compared to the base mean). But certainly more spread and more members that take it further west. The loop and stall is still evident on many of the members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My gut is saying this is bad news for the cape, and a large nuisance, elsewhere. I am with you in that boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 That track is pretty bad for here..if we get NE winds. Serious erosion potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: My gut is saying this is bad news for the cape, and a large nuisance, elsewhere. Yup. No where for storm to escape E. Gonna rot for a day or 2 in the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: That track is pretty bad for here..if we get NE winds. Serious erosion potential Erosion would be the least of your concerns in some of these solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 You have to figure if this stalls the rain amounts and flooding could be historic in places 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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