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Tropical Storm Henri


wxeyeNH
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On the one hand...we all know to err on the conservative side in relation to tropical impacts across the northeast, as systems often end up with less longitude than originally forecast....however, another important consideration is that these "stall and meander scenarios" are also often exaggerated among guidance...especially with respect to a tropical entity in the mid latitudes. Thus it is a very precarious position to have the idea of a less destructive tropical impact dependent upon the whole "slow to a haul upon approach to New England" scenario, which is quite the anomaly in and of itself. It straddles the precipice of hypocrisy to summarily dismiss the notion of a destructive landfall in New England due to the assumption that this thing will grind to halt at 41* latitude.

Lots to consider over the next day as I ponder First Call...I am conflicted.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

On the one hand...we all know to err on the conservative side in relation to tropical impacts across the northeast, as systems often end up with less longitude than originally forecast....however, another important consideration is that these "stall and meander scenarios" are also often exaggerated among guidance...especially with respect to a tropical entity in the mid latitudes. Thus it is a very precarious position to have the idea of a less destructive tropical impact dependent upon the whole "slow to a haul upon approach to New England" scenario, which is quite the anomaly in and of itself. It straddles the precipice of hypocrisy to summarily dismiss the notion of a destructive landfall in New England due to the assumption that this thing will grind to halt at 41* latitude.

Lots to consider over the next day as I ponder First Call.

5k3mr0.jpg

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14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

On the one hand...we all know to err on the conservative side in relation to tropical impacts across the northeast, as systems often end up with less longitude than originally forecast....however, another important consideration is that these "stall and meander scenarios" are also often exaggerated among guidance...especially with respect to a tropical entity in the mid latitudes. Thus it is a very precarious position to have the idea of a less destructive tropical impact dependent upon the whole "slow to a haul upon approach to New England" scenario, which is quite the anomaly in and of itself. It straddles the precipice of hypocrisy to summarily dismiss the notion of a destructive landfall in New England due to the assumption that this thing will grind to halt at 41* latitude.

Lots to consider over the next day as I ponder First Call...I am conflicted.

Almost leads me to believe  models may shift/ move off this idea for at least our area ..seems threading the needle with regard to timing of a Transitory block and positioning of a trough to our west . Next 24 hours (as usual) are huge for models as Those features come into better focus 

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Almost leads me to believe  models may shift/ move off this idea for at least our area ..seems threading the needle with regard to timing of a Transitory block and positioning of a trough to our west . 

Its probably mainly a higher impact for the cape if anyone in the end, and super soaker period for us.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its probably mainly a higher impact for the cape if anyone in the end, and super soaker period for us.

Oh ya . I have no real hope for winds in Nashua.  It’s a niche but my interest is almost purely in the swell and costal flooding aspect from RI to E ma and high end is on the table , not a lock but looks like some action 

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13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Oh ya . I have no real hope for winds in Nashua.  It’s a niche but my interest is almost purely in the swell and costal flooding aspect from RI to E ma and high end is on the table , not a lock but looks like some action 

 

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Certainly a noticeable shift west towards the GEFS. Still a decent amount of spread though between the globals/hurricane models and GFS. What caves to which? 

My gut is saying this is bad news for the cape,  and a large nuisance, elsewhere.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It seems to be losing a bit more latitude than forecast....

I think that needs to be watched for a more prolonged w/ wsw motion . So far there are no ensembles that take it far enough WSW to miss the N turn from Ohio valley trough Friday , so I assume that idea is off the table and this is basically a lock to make it east of OBX and be somewhere well off Delmarva by Saturday evening 

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Compared to 0z, I don't think you can definitively say the 6z EPS came west (at least compared to the base mean). But certainly more spread and more members that take it further west. The loop and stall is still evident on many of the members

AL08_2021081906_ECENS_0-120h_large.thumb.png.9e562c70d3f452131455679188a0709b.png

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