HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said: Ugh... those of us contending the eastward trend on the models... it's not like we thought it was going to go east of Naragansett Bay... we just contend it wasn't going to make landfall in western CT or NYC... jesus... sometimes the made up narratives are fascinating... like the "conflict" is required part of the discussion lol... it’s really only one person. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: NHC shifted east congrats GOn to Watch Hill EAST EAST EAST EAST EAST EAST EAST EAST EAST EAST EAST EAST EAST . . . lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said: EAST EAST EAST EAST EAST EAST EAST EAST EAST EAST EAST EAST EAST . . . lol... It's the new West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 All aboard East team! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 In all honesty, it was probably only moved 20 miles east... lol... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 31 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Your level of snark is admirable. Have a beer or puff be nice I thought people in the Midwest were supposed to be nice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Not sure what happened with recon but right before their SW to NE pass they picked up altitude in a hurry and turned back. Would be a shame if they couldn't do the mission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Landfall right around where I was thinking…eastern LI into CT 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not sure what happened with recon but right before their SW to NE pass they picked up altitude in a hurry and turned back. Would be a shame if they couldn't do the mission. They are headed home...classified as finished. NOAA is on the way out there now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I took a walk and came across a huge chunk of dead tree down in the road. Is it a bad sign that the trees are dropping before the storm even starts? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not sure what happened with recon but right before their SW to NE pass they picked up altitude in a hurry and turned back. Would be a shame if they couldn't do the mission. Did the plane go down from the rapid intensification? You have to wonder what happened 2 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said: Ugh... those of us contending the eastward trend on the models... it's not like we thought it was going to go east of Naragansett Bay... we just contend it wasn't going to make landfall in western CT or NYC... jesus... sometimes the made up narratives are fascinating... like the "conflict" is required part of the discussion lol... Yeah the eastward shift is definitely real from yesterday. It’s not a huge shift but it probably makes a landfall in RI more likely than SW CT/W LI. SE CT has always been in a pretty prime spot for landfall odds and I don’t think that has changed much. It’s extremely hard to actually know how a hurricane is going to behave on the scale a few 10s of miles...I’ve found that going by experience can be more useful than trying to dissect whether a piece of NWP guidance with its 8 trillion equations is going to be correct. In past experience, it’s very very common to see eastward leaks on guidance for New England TCs in the final 36 hours, which is why I was leery of the westward trends continuing a few runs ago. That doesn’t mean it will keep happening from here on out but hedging slightly east is not a bad way to go. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not sure what happened with recon but right before their SW to NE pass they picked up altitude in a hurry and turned back. Would be a shame if they couldn't do the mission. They were probably reading American and so all the meh posts so figured not worth it 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Did the plane go down from the rapid intensification? You have to wonder what happened Couldn't find a circulation and decided to pack it up for the day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Did the plane go down from the rapid intensification? You have to wonder what happened Picking up people in Afghanistan? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the eastward shift is definitely real from yesterday. It’s not a huge shift but it probably makes a landfall in RI more likely than SW CT/W LI. SE CT has always been in a pretty prime spot for landfall odds and I don’t think that has changed much. It’s extremely hard to actually know how a hurricane is going to behave on the scale a few 10s of miles...I’ve found that going by experience can be more useful than trying to dissect whether a piece of NWP guidance with its 8 trillion equations is going to be correct. In past experience, it’s very very common to see eastward leaks on guidance for New England TCs in the final 36 hours, which is why I was leery of the westward trends continuing a few runs ago. That doesn’t mean it will keep happening from here on out but hedging slightly east is not a bad way to go. What are your thoughts on the EPS overall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: They were probably reading American and so all the meh posts so figured not worth it Yea, bunch of ungratefuls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the eastward shift is definitely real from yesterday. It’s not a huge shift but it probably makes a landfall in RI more likely than SW CT/W LI. SE CT has always been in a pretty prime spot for landfall odds and I don’t think that has changed much. It’s extremely hard to actually know how a hurricane is going to behave on the scale a few 10s of miles...I’ve found that going by experience can be more useful than trying to dissect whether a piece of NWP guidance with its 8 trillion equations is going to be correct. In past experience, it’s very very common to see eastward leaks on guidance for New England TCs in the final 36 hours, which is why I was leery of the westward trends continuing a few runs ago. That doesn’t mean it will keep happening from here on out but hedging slightly east is not a bad way to go. Great post. Also true of miller B’s in winter-always seem to verify a bit east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Landfall right around where I was thinking…eastern LI into CT RFQ is more important than LF spot, that is why GON to Watch Hill are in the cross hairs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Did the plane go down from the rapid intensification? You have to wonder what happened Quincy gave the Air Force base a call and complained about the waste of taxpayer money on Henri recon flights 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 So I cut the cable cord two years ago and haven't watched TWC since, just figured out I could watch their free trial for ten minutes then clear the cache for another ten if I wanted. Boy nice rollers breaking way out on Montauk. Thinking surge will not underperform, have to watch Hotel Buoy Texas Tower tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the eastward shift is definitely real from yesterday. It’s not a huge shift but it probably makes a landfall in RI more likely than SW CT/W LI. SE CT has always been in a pretty prime spot for landfall odds and I don’t think that has changed much. It’s extremely hard to actually know how a hurricane is going to behave on the scale a few 10s of miles...I’ve found that going by experience can be more useful than trying to dissect whether a piece of NWP guidance with its 8 trillion equations is going to be correct. In past experience, it’s very very common to see eastward leaks on guidance for New England TCs in the final 36 hours, which is why I was leery of the westward trends continuing a few runs ago. That doesn’t mean it will keep happening from here on out but hedging slightly east is not a bad way to go. Messenger says the eastward leak will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 15 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Henri was just too ferocious, had to turn back. Halfway there and realized he left his wallet at home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Quincy gave the Air Force base a call and complained about the waste of taxpayer money on Henri recon flights He should read and watch this when he says no power outages NW of 95. And he lived the first 20 years of his life in Woodstock , CT. He’s been chasing tornadoes too long and forgets his roots. Hate to see it 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 More eyewall development - an inside view: 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, Hoth said: I took a walk and came across a huge chunk of dead tree down in the road. Is it a bad sign that the trees are dropping before the storm even starts? He surrendered before he became victim 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natedizel Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, Spaizzo said: He surrendered before he became victim Probably another afghani soldier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 8 hours ago, Quincy said: There will be some inland outages too, but I can’t imagine anything widespread or long term away from the areas near the landfall/immediate right front quadrant. 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He should read and watch this when he says no power outages NW of 95. And he lived the first 20 years of his life in Woodstock , CT. He’s been chasing tornadoes too long and forgets his roots. Hate to see it If I didn’t have roots in SNE, I probably wouldn’t be spending so much time in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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