weathafella Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Totally fun 4 days incoming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Since I don’t need to be up before 11 tomorrow morning I’ll provide euro pbp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 0Z UKMET: more ominous run for CT/RI/inland MA as it goes NNW to near RI/CT border and then continued NNW into west central MA TROPICAL STORM HENRI ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 68.2WATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 19.08.2021 0 29.7N 68.2W 999 501200UTC 19.08.2021 12 29.5N 70.6W 984 640000UTC 20.08.2021 24 29.4N 72.7W 978 741200UTC 20.08.2021 36 29.7N 74.3W 977 660000UTC 21.08.2021 48 30.6N 74.7W 974 731200UTC 21.08.2021 60 32.7N 73.9W 967 790000UTC 22.08.2021 72 36.1N 72.4W 958 851200UTC 22.08.2021 84 39.9N 71.5W 958 810000UTC 23.08.2021 96 42.0N 72.0W 984 44 (CT/MA border)1200UTC 23.08.2021 108 43.0N 72.4W 1001 250000UTC 24.08.2021 120 43.2N 71.8W 1005 191200UTC 24.08.2021 132 43.8N 69.4W 1007 190000UTC 25.08.2021 144 CEASED TRACKING 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 And here is a 0Z UKMET image: Henri is then moving NNW as it just misses the far eastern tip of Long Island: 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 31 minutes ago, GaWx said: And here is a 0Z UKMET image: Henri is then moving NNW as it just misses the far eastern tip of Long Island: Larry! Great to see you here! UKMET resembles Bob from 1991. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 fish 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said: fish Nope, if anything the tracks are shifting further west. Can't rule out a LI or CT/RI strike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Euro looks much more realistic with regard to Henri’s organization at initialization and hour 24 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 The bigger threat from this is going to be rain. Winds don’t look overly impressive by the time it gets here (I’d it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 A meh solution to put it mildly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: A meh solution to put it mildly It’s meh verbatim but it took the Euro days to even recognize that a coherent low could survive the journey north. It’s a step toward the GFS and other guidance IMO. I’d expect the EPS to be more robust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 50 minutes ago, weathafella said: Larry! Great to see you here! UKMET resembles Bob from 1991. That would be worse..Bob was skimming NE, this is being obsorbed NNW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s meh verbatim but it took the Euro days to even recognize that a coherent low could survive the journey north. It’s a step toward the GFS and other guidance IMO. I’d expect the EPS to be more robust. Yea, okay....you know deep down the tamer idea is probably right. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Even though the 00z Euro was closer to the other guidance, it was another odd run structurally. It deepens Henri over the next 24 hours to ~986mb when the environment should be hostile, but then attempts to do what it’s been doing the entire time and weaken the system significantly on Friday and early Saturday when it’s likely to be in a more favorable environment. The stronger low early allows for the general westward shift, and it essentially loops over SE MA as it decays on Monday. Recon will really be helpful here and I’m glad the missions are starting later today. For reasons discussed earlier the Euro is practically flying blind right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, okay....you know deep down the tamer idea is probably right. Lol Hopefully that's the case. The Ukmet solution would be pretty ugly. Tides will also be greater than normal due to full moon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, okay....you know deep down the tamer idea is probably right. Lol Moving this slowly up here, sure. But that doesn’t explain Friday and early Saturday off the SE/southern Mid-Atlantic coast. That looks like an environment that wouldn’t cause a breakdown in the internal structure. The Euro is the only model doing it and I’m not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Moving this slowly up here, sure. But that doesn’t explain Friday and early Saturday off the SE/southern Mid-Atlantic coast. That looks like an environment that wouldn’t cause a breakdown in the internal structure. The Euro is the only model doing it and I’m not sure why. I agree on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Is it drier, more stable air inhibiting the system on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That would be worse..Bob was skimming NE, this is being obsorbed NNW. Bob made landfall on the south coast and seriously raked the cape. Similar to UKMET to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree on that. All the guidance weakens this on final approach and most do it pretty dramatically. I think it’d be a surprise if we saw anything higher than a low end cat 1 at this latitude given the current setup. You know this but if we wanted high end wind from a purely tropical entity up here it’d need to be hauling through the region. We don’t have that setup here, so it almost doesn’t matter how strong this gets down south. It’ll decay quickly on final approach. 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Is it drier, more stable air inhibiting the system on the euro? Looks like it might be from what I see around hour 42. That and perhaps a little more shear from interaction with the trough. Not sure it’ll play out like that because if it developed a core like the run projects it should be more resilient in the face of that, but that combination would take any higher end intensification off the table IMO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Off to bed. Here's the 00z EPS. Second image might be a better visualization. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Off to bed. Here's the 00z EPS. Second image might be a better visualization. It looks to me like there is a pretty decent cluster that make LF on E. LI/CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 06z NAM is WAY weaker. Like 30 mb weaker but also way further west. Looks like it scrapes E. LI headed right for the CT/RI border. All with a grain of salt being the 84hr NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: 06z NAM is WAY weaker. Like 30 mb weaker but also way further west. Looks like it scrapes E. LI headed right for the CT/RI border. All with a grain of salt being the 84hr NAM. Using NAM for tropical...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Henri keeps subtly losing more latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... * Watching Henri for impacts Sun/Mon - start preparing now! * Warm/humid next week with showers/storms at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 . Tropical Storm Henri is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane as it approaches southern New England later this weekend. Although the track remains uncertain, it has the potential to bring damaging winds, flooding rain, and storm surge flooding. They seem pretty gung ho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Strong storm on Cape Cod on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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