Floydbuster Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Just now, Euripides said: I have to stop looking at the loop as my eyes are playing tricks on me the more I watch it. I do see a NW tick here and there but it is mostly N. Agree but the last two hours have shown a definite west component to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, ice1972 said: OK thats fine.....its just we thought we knew 12 hours ago......maybe we still don't know....IDK.....lol BTW the high tide here in Cape May flooded out our unit on the bottom floor....which seemed fine mostly cuz we are on the second floor.....owner didn't think anything about it...lol That's true... except 12 hours ago there were models in two different camps. Now the only one that's farthest west is the ICON. All the globals and regionals I can see on Tropical Tidbits have it coming in somewhere between E LI/SE CT and SW RI. That seems to be pretty solid evidence of where landfall might be 18 hours out... just waiting for the Euro to see what the trend is... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 It seems more westerly vs north because radar naturally shows the best echo development NW of the center. Almost an optical illusion. Track from the center and try to filter out the rest and you’ll have a better fix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Maybe this is funnier than it should be because it's 1AM... 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Ukie a 995mb into Rhode Island. A far cry from the 960 into NYC it had a few days ago. Safe to say it ain’t a good tropical model. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Ukie a 995mb into Rhode Island. A far cry from the 960 into NYC it had a few days ago. Safe to say it ain’t a good tropical model. I think this storm has been tough on all the models...https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2021/HENRI_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 10 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Ukie a 995mb into Rhode Island. A far cry from the 960 into NYC it had a few days ago. Safe to say it ain’t a good tropical model. Every model struggled this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 10 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Ukie a 995mb into Rhode Island. A far cry from the 960 into NYC it had a few days ago. Safe to say it ain’t a good tropical model. It's not a bad one at all. The furthest west is was the Nassau/Suffolk border. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 looking pretty good I think we get hit good here later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 13 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: I think this storm has been tough on all the models...https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2021/HENRI_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line Eh maybe just a bit lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Euro significantly east from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Yep looks like we finally got a consensus . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 still moving at 21 mph so much for slowing down this thing is going to come in quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 We’ll see if it slows down as it hits land like it was supposed to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Quote DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 71.0 West. Henri is moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected later this morning. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in southern New England or on Long Island today. After landfall, a turn to the north and a slower forward speed are expected as Henri moves over southern New England. Reports from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible early this morning. Weakening is expected to begin later today. However, Henri is expected to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coasts of southern New England and Long island. Rapid weakening is expected after Henri makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 987 mb (29.15 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Bid to hfd on the Euro and a ton of rain again for NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Bid to hfd on the Euro and a ton of rain again for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Yowzers. Hopefully that’s wrong after what happened tonight in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Bid to hfd on the Euro and a ton of rain again for NYC think it ends up further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Euro’s really harping on this interaction with the ULL and hook left to bring heavy rain west. Honestly it’s pretty believable given how tropical systems usually behave at our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 I definitely do believe the Catskills area rain max given the upslope somewhere and assumed hook left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 storms still firing kind of surprised thought weakening would have started but looks to be getting stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Weenies looking at models, live satellite and radar: Henri: 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Someones getting over 12 feet if that's all snow and 20:1 ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 NYC is $ucked with all of that rain...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 17 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: storms still firing kind of surprised thought weakening would have started but looks to be getting stronger Only one trip through so far but winds appear to be decreasing, only getting 60 knot gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natedizel Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 I want/need to sleep but i want to keep watching 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Core looking a bit more NW than NNW to me. Convection really heading west. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=OKX-N0Q-0-24-100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 6z models mostly have a RI landfall now with a track just east of here later on today flooding will be major.... Satellite looking better and better but recon not finding stronger winds yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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