nwohweather Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 I understand what you are saying, but huge rainmakers with marginally gusty winds aren't the enthusiasts cup of tea. Of course marine interests and flooding will enjoy this oneMarginally? Around the eyewall will be akin to a Midwest derecho for hours with a 3-6’ storm surge. This will definitely be a hell of a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, snowman21 said: New NHC track makes landfall in Charlestown RI. Wow keeps moving east…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, MarkO said: poll question, will Block Island record a 90mh gust? Absolutely no shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Just now, Brian5671 said: Wow keeps moving east…. Comes west exactly over my head. 12H 22/1200Z 40.3N 71.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 41.9N 71.8W 55 KT 65 MPH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Will the rain bands not grow expand in coverage when the waters have it slightly weaken? The models seem to think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: I wonder if it will just be similar to last years tropical twisty twist that came onshore and lashed us with one whip of a single rain band, and some 30 mph gusts. I don’t want to undersell or underestimate though You and Kevin are gonna get smoked with rain. We tried to tell him about the Messenger shuffle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 May you enter the eye, big moose from Moosup (trivia test, anyone know who that was)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Wow keeps moving east…. I acknowledge my bias since I forecasted a LF further west, but it seems odd to me that they mention going east again and said this: A turn toward the north-northwest and a slower forward speed are expected on Sunday, which should bring the center near or over southern New England or Long Island between 18-24 h. With the more eastward initial position, the forecast track is shifted a bit to the east of the previous forecast. However, there is still some uncertainty of the landfall point, as several of the guidance models are to the left of the official forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Marginally? Around the eyewall will be akin to a Midwest derecho for hours with a 3-6’ storm surge. This will definitely be a hell of a hit You have to understand interior Massachusetts peeps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said: May you enter the eye, big moose from Moosup (trivia test, anyone know who that was)? I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Also interesting to me that they seem to totally discount the GFS and Euro taking this further west over New England before turning east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I acknowledge my bias since I forecasted a LF further west, but it seems odd to me that they mention going east again and said this: A turn toward the north-northwest and a slower forward speed are expected on Sunday, which should bring the center near or over southern New England or Long Island between 18-24 h. With the more eastward initial position, the forecast track is shifted a bit to the east of the previous forecast. However, there is still some uncertainty of the landfall point, as several of the guidance models are to the left of the official forecast. We are only talking 10 to 20 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Absolutely no shot I think someone is going to hit 90, but it will likely be east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: We are only talking 10 to 20 miles Yeah. I really mean this part 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Also interesting to me that they seem to totally discount the GFS and Euro taking this further west over New England before turning east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Told you guys last night NHC would sway back east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris9277 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Just now, MarkO said: I think someone is going to hit 90, but it will likely be east. I don't. I think 75-80 would be the top. My guess would be Newport/Fall River/New Bedford. Numerous 50-60-70 mph gusts all over RI/Eastern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 In the bullseye...........for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah. I really mean this part The first half of their track matches 0Z FV3 to a tee then it veers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 It's possible this thing misses us completely it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: It's possible this thing misses us completely it seems Beer 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris9277 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Just now, Whineminster said: It's possible this thing misses us completely it seems Doubt it. If it heads more eastward than what I am projecting it to hit (I am projecting a Newport RI vicinity landfall, at about 70-75 mph sustained winds), I would think the heavier rain would replace the heavier winds in Massachusetts/Rhode Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Nice, almost looks like IRC which would spread out the winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 21 minutes ago, dendrite said: Looks like an eyewall may be trying to form at the end of that loop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Looks like an eyewall may be trying to form at the end of that loop. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 1m Eye is forming on Henri. Warm water not only parameter as upper outflow will improve all the way to landfall. still no big pressure drops but if eye clears out would likely be a sign its happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Looks like an eyewall may be trying to form at the end of that loop. The rain is visibly organizing at the very least. I don’t think I’m in a very safe place because I’m IN the river but I’m not going to sleep until the storm is over and there’s a nice long urban hill with lots of side streets of which access is easy, it’s a 15 minute walk or 2 minute drive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice, almost looks like IRC which would spread out the winds There's a double wind max on recon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Just now, OSUmetstud said: There's a double wind max on recon. Sweet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, Whineminster said: It's possible this thing misses us completely it seems The low is not going to go out to sea. It is moving due north right now, if it were going out to sea you would already see signs of the low slipping to the east, but that isn’t happening. An eye is forming which suggests the strength of the low is also increasing. 4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Looks like an eyewall may be trying to form at the end of that loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Looks like not only is Forky not getting a cane he's not getting the Pre flash flooding. Congrats Ant 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Small core and circulation but continues to improve on IR 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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