MJO812 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Euro gives me a few inches of rain and GFS nothing . Models still don't have a clue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 The GFS would be massive hydro problems in CT and W Mass. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Gfs would create a waterslide from Kevin to electric blue 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Summer Shanty in Dennis. Clouds starting to roll in. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man.. this is going to be wild in CT I'm pretty convinced a lot of the mehing is because significant impacts might be mainly limited to CT/RI. Maybe it's the 3 IPAs talking, but I'm not meh on this for myself. It's going to be a direct hit of a mid/high tropical storm where we should be getting torrential rain followed by a hook left and the llc going over our head. Sounds like power outages to me 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 That’s probably worse for CT if that GFS played out. I’ll take the 50 mph gusts over drowning rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That’s probably worse for CT if that GFS played out. I’ll take the 50 mph gusts over drowning rains. Wagons east paging Kev 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Yup, was just about to say what everyone else did. That’s a worse solution for CT overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 40 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: With the caveat that recon would be an even better indicator, the eye of Henri looks pretty good as it begins to cross into the Gulf Stream. It looks circular with convection (albeit weak) wrapping around it. You can also see fast low level motion that may be indicative of a tighter and stronger wind field. Of course, we don't know if winds are mixing down or if the pressure is dropping, but it looks good. If crossing the GS can pop some hot towers and evacuate some of the residual dry air, it could quickly improve in presentation and organization in the few hours before reaching cooler waters. Are you channeling James? 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That’s probably worse for CT if that GFS played out. I’ll take the 50 mph gusts over drowning rains. Well, at least the lights would stay on so we can see how much rain Kevin gets. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Really appears to me that the sensitivity in the models in the west vs east is almost entirely been connected to the storm's intensity - Sronger has majority west solutions, vs weaker east. I 'think'/suspect that is related to the total vertical integration; more so is more entangle with the cutting trough ..less allows it to partially escape capture and ends up farther up the coast. Fascinating - If this does "quasi" RI for a stint and makes it into the init of the evening runs, might be interesting to see that east trend stops at that point and this stabilizes - or if it even goes back west a tick or two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: Wagons east paging Kev 5pm track just in: Henri still a cat 1 hurricane 75mph top wind. Latest track a bit EAST of previous run. All of coastal RI & Block Island on the dangerous eastern side. Surge & wind big concerns for us. Look out RI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, weathergoat said: Hey Ginx... with the trajectory Henri is forecast to take towards the SNE coast and the astronomical high tides, do you think Misquamicut could see structural damage from surge similar to Sandy? Yes structural damage, surge from Sandy was 5 feet but Sandy had 50 ft seas. 5 ft surge and 20 feet this time. Totally dependent on high tide and surge arrival also wind. I know Misquamicut had 90 mph gusts in Sandy being fully exposed. Probably 75 this time. Sandy surge arrived at high tide during as we thought a full moon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, moneypitmike said: Are you channeling James? God rest his soul. No I'm not. Just pointing to the possibility that there's enough of an inner core to organize at a faster clip. I don't think that's too far out there as virtually all the guidance has some deepening over the next few hours. I'm not calling for a 2 or 3 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yes structural damage, surge from Sandy was 5 feet but Sandy had 50 ft seas. 5 ft surge and 20 feet this time. Totally dependent on high tide and surge arrival also wind. I know Misquamicut had 90 mph gusts in Sandy being fully exposed. Probably 75 this time. Sandy surge arrived at high tide during as we thought a full moon. Simple and to the point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 What happened to James? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: God rest his soul. No I'm not. Just pointing to the possibility that there's enough of an inner core to organize at a faster clip. I don't think that's too far out there as virtually all the guidance has some deepening over the next few hours. I'm not calling for a 2 or 3 lol. Anyone who references the gulf stream gets a James recognition. What do people think of surge on Fire Island? Would you be concerned if you were there? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What happened to James? Check your DM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I'm pretty convinced a lot of the mehing is because significant impacts might be mainly limited to CT/RI. Maybe it's the 3 IPAs talking, but I'm not meh on this for myself. It's going to be a direct hit of a mid/high tropical storm where we should be getting torrential rain followed by a hook left and the llc going over our head. Sounds like power outages to me I’m not sure what other areas are thinking or expecting. But I will put my thoughts out for our specific area and I’ll include you and me. 50-60 mph gusts everywhere east of the river. As high as 65 in squalls and SE of you has potential to gust as high as 70-75mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Anyone who references the gulf stream gets a James recognition. What do people think of surge on Fire Island? Would you be concerned if you were there? Oh man, how could I forget. Good times. Bun me good sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Simple and to the point. I don't expect this to happen again but damn right now its probably max surge zone. The way the coastline is like a bowl it concentrates the energy from Watch Hill To Weekapaug and Misquamicut is dead center of the bowl and of course the lowest point. Barrier islands being barrier islands and all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 While the trend east should help mitigate some power outages & wind damage, it supports significant rainfall totals for CT. It's impossible to say where the heaviest axis sets up, so don't focus on totals in specific areas, but rather the idea that some will likely get walloped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Check your DM Now I'm concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m not sure what other areas are thinking or expecting. But I will put my thoughts out for our specific area and I’ll include you and me. 50-60 mph gusts everywhere east of the river. As high as 65 in squalls and SE of you has potential to gust as high as 70-75mph Is it still trending west? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I don't expect this to happen again but damn right now its probably max surge zone. The way the coastline is like a bowl it concentrates the energy from Watch Hill To Weekapaug and Misquamicut is dead center of the bowl and of course the lowest point. Barrier islands being barrier islands and all Yeah...but you have the right idea on a different scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Oh man, how could I forget. Good times. Bun me good sir. Arent you fka ski sheep or am I thinking of someone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, kdxken said: Is it still trending west? I don’t know what you’re expecting. What is your forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: I don't expect this to happen again but damn right now its probably max surge zone. The way the coastline is like a bowl it concentrates the energy from Watch Hill To Weekapaug and Misquamicut is dead center of the bowl and of course the lowest point. Barrier islands being barrier islands and all What's your take on Fire Island, Steve? My brother's weighing stay/go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m not sure what other areas are thinking or expecting. But I will put my thoughts out for our specific area and I’ll include you and me. 50-60 mph gusts everywhere east of the river. As high as 65 in squalls and SE of you has potential to gust as high as 70-75mph Reasonable at this time, beware the Messenger shuffle which would put you in more rain less wind. Tight wind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m not sure what other areas are thinking or expecting. But I will put my thoughts out for our specific area and I’ll include you and me. 50-60 mph gusts everywhere east of the river. As high as 65 in squalls and SE of you has potential to gust as high as 70-75mph Yeah sounds about right. Not a cat 1 hurricane or anything but enough to be disruptive out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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