George001 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I haven’t noticed any east trend at all. On the euro, navy, and short range guidance like the nam, rgem, href ect the low makes landfall around eastern long island, comes up right over Rhode Island and then moves west into the Berkshires and right over the Hudson Valley. This storm will be extremely powerful, blowing it off is a big mistake in my opinion, with how far west the low is moving we could see tropical storm conditions as far west as Albany. The low has actually moved west since yesterday, before they were saying it was going right over eastern mass and now it’s going over western mass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What are your thoughts on the EPS overall? They still have some decent spread which shows the uncertainty even at 24-36h. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, natedizel said: Probably another afghani soldier Enough. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: They still have some decent spread which shows the uncertainty even at 24-36h. Ok thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, salbers said: More eyewall development - an inside view: That looks extremely powerful. When you see an eye like that it’s a sign that the low is going to strengthen more than expected. I have never in my life seen a storm with an eye end up being weaker than expected. In my opinion the models will start increasing the strength of the low. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: They still have some decent spread which shows the uncertainty even at 24-36h. SREF showing greater spread now as well. ARW members clustered NW, but NMM farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 new convection blowing up where it seems the S/SE eyewall is 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 5 PM NHC advisory puts landfall on my head. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I already told my family there is going to be a massive hurricane headed for us. With a storm like this id rather be overprepared than underprepared. I noticed that some posters here aren’t really taking the storm that seriously, which I kinda get because the low doesn’t look all that strong on the models. If anyone is planning on going on like normal with their plans tomorrow, I strongly recommend reconsidering, even if it’s unlikely you do not want to get stuck driving home in the middle of a stronger than expected category 2 hurricane. I am aware that is not the forecast right now, but with how the storm looks right now the possibly that it strengthens more than expected is there. I hope it doesn’t get that strong because I’m not a big fan of hurricanes like I am blizzards, but I just can’t see how this ends up being weaker than expected looking at the storm right now. 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 RGEM no change vs 12z ICON significantly east vs 12z. Landfall over the eastern end of LI vs western LI. Similar track to the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 It's model noise now. Time for now cast 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 With the caveat that recon would be an even better indicator, the eye of Henri looks pretty good as it begins to cross into the Gulf Stream. It looks circular with convection (albeit weak) wrapping around it. You can also see fast low level motion that may be indicative of a tighter and stronger wind field. Of course, we don't know if winds are mixing down or if the pressure is dropping, but it looks good. If crossing the GS can pop some hot towers and evacuate some of the residual dry air, it could quickly improve in presentation and organization in the few hours before reaching cooler waters. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Appearances can be deceiving, but Henri looks the best he has ever looked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, George001 said: I already told my family there is going to be a massive hurricane headed for us. With a storm like this id rather be overprepared than underprepared. I noticed that some posters here aren’t really taking the storm that seriously, which I kinda get because the low doesn’t look all that strong on the models. If anyone is planning on going on like normal with their plans tomorrow, I strongly recommend reconsidering, even if it’s unlikely you do not want to get stuck driving home in the middle of a stronger than expected category 2 hurricane. I am aware that is not the forecast right now, but with how the storm looks right now the possibly that it strengthens more than expected is there. I hope it doesn’t get that strong because I’m not a big fan of hurricanes like I am blizzards, but I just can’t see how this ends up being weaker than expected looking at the storm right now. Ah yes. I too remember my weenie days. Oh wait, they never ended. I’d consider chasing it, but still saving up for winter chasing and/or move to Worcester baby! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Recon mission 12 will be there in an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 18z RGEM up over Point Judith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I knew I'd get a weenie for that post 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 18z RGEM up over Point Judith east? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: east? Ever so slightly I guess. 5-10mi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 24 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: It's model noise now. Time for now cast Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergoat Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 59 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: RFQ is more important than LF spot, that is why GON to Watch Hill are in the cross hairs Hey Ginx... with the trajectory Henri is forecast to take towards the SNE coast and the astronomical high tides, do you think Misquamicut could see structural damage from surge similar to Sandy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 18z gfs solidly east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 GFS went east again. Starting to look like more of a Rhode Island storm CT is probably going to be a bust with the wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Yeah, big big trouble for those wild CT calls if the east envelope is correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: 18z gfs solidly east! And very weak Yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: 18z gfs solidly east! Not liking this trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS went east again. Starting to look like more of a Rhode Island storm CT is probably going to be a bust with the wind. Eastern CT should get slammed regardless. These trends make a difference for for central/western CT though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Yah Im going to be without power a while with this east shift. Probably for the best, we are better at getting our power back faster than Eversource in conn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Guess OKX just isn't gonna bother putting out an updated forecast for tonight and tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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