Tropical Storm Henri

[jbenedet]

Looking more and more “crappy” but surface pressure falling... all day...

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Pluffmud said:

What happened to Henri? Seems like as soon as they declared Henri a hurricane he has degraded ever since. Maybe he can juice up during dimax but there’s not much moisture in the storm right now.

It’s hard to tell with these systems that are this far north and impact us up here.  The IR sat can look bad while the inner core is actually improving 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, amarshall said:

Trying to talk my sister off a cliff about pulling her boat in Duxbury. SE wind for cape cod bay. Unless there’s a hard right turn im advising not to.


.

If it’s ok in SE winds she will be fine. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Looking more and more “crappy” but surface pressure falling... all day...

Yeah starting to look like Dorian.

[Patfan1987]

Zzzzzz

Why even post this? Great addition to the thread.

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, Patfan1987 said:

Why even post this? Great addition to the thread.

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Significant expansion of the wind field right upon closest approach, as phase completed. AWT. New England being New England.

Model huggers flummoxed.

 

I wonder if they will disappear for months following a bad forecast?

[ORH_wxman]

19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

One day Emass might get something interesting tropical wise.  Basically missed all.of Sandy Irene Isiasis 

Irene’s strongest winds might have been down on the cape. I had my highest personal measured there with the handheld. I think Phil and I got 63 knots at West Dennis beach. 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder if they will disappear for months following a bad forecast?

Boom

[Dalmatian90]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That logic tends to indict the maintenance.  Which "maintenance" is kind of a loaded term. 

 

The last number of storms, dating back at least to the 2008 ice storm, the municipally owned utilities in southern New England were up in around three days, the investor owned ones took two weeks.

My favorite example for folks who may think, "But investor owned has more territory|the towns are all different|think of an excuse" ...Norwalk, Connecticut is divided just about in half.  The municipal side was up in three days after Irene (or Sandy?) while the investor owned side was two weeks.  There's several rural Massachusetts towns I know that have municipal systems that perform similarly -- so it's not just a "rural/urban" issue and the investor owned is busy fixing rural towns.  

Best I can figure, the municipals are smaller with fewer employees -- but have more employees per customer so they can respond to trouble calls and new service requests on a timely basis with their smaller staffs.  When they're not responding to customer issues, the linemen keep busy updating stuff like replacing old cross arms and such.  

Eversource (the one I'm most familiar with) seems to really like their contractors, and keep their own linemen spread thin.  They have been putting a lot of contractors into improving grid reliability against regular storms but that doesn't do that much when you're about to have a lot more damage to the grid than the ordinary wind storm.  My own house is very reliable -- out of power for more than 8 hours twice in 22 years; once for Irene then for Isasis and that last one I was actually a victim of the grid improvements; they built a new second feed into the center of my town so they didn't have to fix the older main distribution lines in front of my house first before the rest of town.

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah starting to look like Dorian.

You're killing me   

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Irene’s strongest winds might have been down on the cape. I had my highest personal measured there with the handheld. I think Phil and I got 63 knots at West Dennis beach. 

Nice. 63kts on the ground is nothing to sneeze at. 

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder if they will disappear for months following a bad forecast?

Or reappear on a high horse with no claim to fame but a free website? 
 

 

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Any appreciable tornado risk on the east side?

There will be a risk...good low level shear. But with the wind field kind of meh, it is probably mostly like weak EF0 spin-ups. We don’t have like 100-120 knots just off the deck to tap into like we might in a stronger system. 

Still gotta watch though. Even weak ones will be damaging...esp with recent rains. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

You're killing me   

Nice. 63kts on the ground is nothing to sneeze at. 

Yeah there was like a 1-2 hour period that it ripped pretty good down there. The sun actually came out for a time which probably helped destabilize the low levels a bit and then shortly after that we got some pretty big gusts. 

Usually it’s hard to get much better than 40-50 knots at ground level in my own experience (which admittedly doesn’t include a “real” tropical hurricane)

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Or reappear on a high horse with no claim to fame but a free website? 

Shots fired from all directions

[Ginx snewx]

Highest gusts at 41001 are on SW winds, have to wonder about dry slot mixing as the center passes. Understanding tropical air now but mixed after.

[Typhoon Tip]

I wonder if that's a quasi PRE axis arcing off the Del Marv/L.I. there.  

[USCG RS]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... I have a neighbor who is a retired "Journeymen" - that's grid's old-school title for line guys.  I can ask..

These may in fact be the factors as you outline.  It's interesting to parse that out - I mean... electricity doesn't care ( heh ) where it goes.  Population is big and too big, no doubt, but in a sense, if the grid matures along with it, ...doesn't matter. That logic tends to indict the maintenance.  Which "maintenance" is kind of a loaded term.   It's not just cleaning up after a storm.  Obviously where I am going with this, it's as much preventative. Maybe if the ethic was there, it's thus not being complacent, and continuing to develop new technologies ...etc...etc. and there becomes a lot of complexity to what maintenance really "should" mean.  But you look out there, you see the same cables strung between poles like I remember when I was kid back when the dinosaurs roamed...

 

The maintenence I was referring to was in regard to preventative maintenance. Too many trees are dead and are not taken away. 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah there was like a 1-2 hour period that it ripped pretty good down there. The sun actually came out for a time which probably helped destabilize the low levels a bit and then shortly after that we got some pretty big gusts. 

Usually it’s hard to get much better than 40-50 knots at ground level in my own experience (which admittedly doesn’t include a “real” tropical hurricane)

I'm kind of like Josh at this point where I can't get enough of it. When I measured 56kts down on Long Island for Isaias I was pretty stoked, then I got into the eyewall of Laura a few weeks later. There's really nothing like it, and yes I know I'm insane lol. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Shots fired from all directions

Find one person to claim I have dissapeared following a bad forecast, and I'll own it. As for having a blog in relation to a hobby without being famous...guilty.

[Quincy]

20 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Any appreciable tornado risk on the east side?

There will be a modest risk zone in the right front quadrant. Wind profiles are favorable and you don’t need much instability with tropical systems, given rich moisture profiles, but you’ll see a nose of skinny CAPE advect into southeastern SNE. Timing is favorable during peak heating Sunday afternoon to locally boost instability, particularly between rain bands.

Since the system is slowing down and weakening, don’t expect the threat to make it too far inland. 

Picked a sounding near PVD at 18z Sunday and you’ll see a marginally favorable environment. Low level shear supports a brief spin up or two, but without a larger, more intense wind field, the threat should be fairly localized.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah there was like a 1-2 hour period that it ripped pretty good down there. The sun actually came out for a time which probably helped destabilize the low levels a bit and then shortly after that we got some pretty big gusts. 

Usually it’s hard to get much better than 40-50 knots at ground level in my own experience (which admittedly doesn’t include a “real” tropical hurricane)

Outerbands of Irene were spectacular here in ECt and why we suffered the most damage and longest outages.

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder if that's a quasi PRE axis arcing off the Del Marv/L.I. there.  

I was wondering the same earlier when hints of an eye were trying to show up.

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder if that's a quasi PRE axis arcing off the Del Marv/L.I. there.  

 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Find one person to claim I have dissapeared following a bad forecast, and I'll own it.

I said shots fired, not targets hit. Never seen you run away.

[Modfan2]

46 minutes ago, Quincy said:

The fixation and on surface winds away from the immediate coast always seemed silly. I’ve been trying to stress the somewhat overlooked coastal flooding/surge topic for a while, but it seems like some are more interested with peak wind gust potential atop Mount Tolland.

Define “fixation” on winds; I don’t think anyone is expecting 90 mph sustained or gusts to 100+ but I do think sustained to 45 and gust to 70 are possible to Mt Tolland and given the rainfall in sections of CT the last few months that’s enough to cause some damage. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, Quincy said:

There will be a modest risk zone in the right front quadrant. Wind profiles are favorable and you don’t need much instability with tropical systems, given rich moisture profiles, but you’ll see a nose of skinny CAPE advect into southeastern SNE. Timing is favorable during peak heating Sunday afternoon to locally boost instability, particularly between rain bands.

Since the system is slowing down and weakening, don’t expect the threat to make it too far inland. 

Picked a sounding near PVD at 18z Sunday and you’ll see a marginally favorable environment. Low level shear supports a brief spin up or two, but without a larger, more intense wind field, the threat should be fairly localized.

 

Oh I LOVE that cross-over product!  man...geeks dream.   That's really pretty cool

[tiger_deF]

Reports of Henri's death have been greatly exaggerated 

[Spaizzo]

(CT) Just drive from Derby to North Branford. To note grocery stores are packed. Gas lines are formed. Local gas stations running out of gas.  Water is flying off the shelves. Madison and Groton areas are being told to evacuate. We had a hard time getting fast after sandy so I’m not shocked at the gas stuff..

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I said shots fired, not targets hit. Never seen you run away.

Yea, I was talking to you, not at.