jbenedet Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Looking more and more “crappy” but surface pressure falling... all day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 6:55 PM, Pluffmud said: What happened to Henri? Seems like as soon as they declared Henri a hurricane he has degraded ever since. Maybe he can juice up during dimax but there’s not much moisture in the storm right now. Expand It’s hard to tell with these systems that are this far north and impact us up here. The IR sat can look bad while the inner core is actually improving 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 6:55 PM, amarshall said: Trying to talk my sister off a cliff about pulling her boat in Duxbury. SE wind for cape cod bay. Unless there’s a hard right turn im advising not to. . Expand If it’s ok in SE winds she will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 6:58 PM, jbenedet said: Looking more and more “crappy” but surface pressure falling... all day... Expand Yeah starting to look like Dorian. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 6:31 PM, A-L-E-K said: ZzzzzzWhy even post this? Great addition to the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 7:01 PM, Patfan1987 said: Why even post this? Great addition to the thread. Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 6:17 PM, jbenedet said: Significant expansion of the wind field right upon closest approach, as phase completed. AWT. New England being New England. Model huggers flummoxed. Expand I wonder if they will disappear for months following a bad forecast? 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 6:45 PM, Ginx snewx said: One day Emass might get something interesting tropical wise. Basically missed all.of Sandy Irene Isiasis Expand Irene’s strongest winds might have been down on the cape. I had my highest personal measured there with the handheld. I think Phil and I got 63 knots at West Dennis beach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 7:04 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wonder if they will disappear for months following a bad forecast? Expand Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalmatian90 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 4:57 PM, Typhoon Tip said: That logic tends to indict the maintenance. Which "maintenance" is kind of a loaded term. Expand The last number of storms, dating back at least to the 2008 ice storm, the municipally owned utilities in southern New England were up in around three days, the investor owned ones took two weeks. My favorite example for folks who may think, "But investor owned has more territory|the towns are all different|think of an excuse" ...Norwalk, Connecticut is divided just about in half. The municipal side was up in three days after Irene (or Sandy?) while the investor owned side was two weeks. There's several rural Massachusetts towns I know that have municipal systems that perform similarly -- so it's not just a "rural/urban" issue and the investor owned is busy fixing rural towns. Best I can figure, the municipals are smaller with fewer employees -- but have more employees per customer so they can respond to trouble calls and new service requests on a timely basis with their smaller staffs. When they're not responding to customer issues, the linemen keep busy updating stuff like replacing old cross arms and such. Eversource (the one I'm most familiar with) seems to really like their contractors, and keep their own linemen spread thin. They have been putting a lot of contractors into improving grid reliability against regular storms but that doesn't do that much when you're about to have a lot more damage to the grid than the ordinary wind storm. My own house is very reliable -- out of power for more than 8 hours twice in 22 years; once for Irene then for Isasis and that last one I was actually a victim of the grid improvements; they built a new second feed into the center of my town so they didn't have to fix the older main distribution lines in front of my house first before the rest of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 7:01 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah starting to look like Dorian. Expand You're killing me On 8/21/2021 at 7:05 PM, ORH_wxman said: Irene’s strongest winds might have been down on the cape. I had my highest personal measured there with the handheld. I think Phil and I got 63 knots at West Dennis beach. Expand Nice. 63kts on the ground is nothing to sneeze at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 7:04 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wonder if they will disappear for months following a bad forecast? Expand Or reappear on a high horse with no claim to fame but a free website? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 6:58 PM, Cyclone-68 said: Any appreciable tornado risk on the east side? Expand There will be a risk...good low level shear. But with the wind field kind of meh, it is probably mostly like weak EF0 spin-ups. We don’t have like 100-120 knots just off the deck to tap into like we might in a stronger system. Still gotta watch though. Even weak ones will be damaging...esp with recent rains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 7:07 PM, WxWatcher007 said: You're killing me Nice. 63kts on the ground is nothing to sneeze at. Expand Yeah there was like a 1-2 hour period that it ripped pretty good down there. The sun actually came out for a time which probably helped destabilize the low levels a bit and then shortly after that we got some pretty big gusts. Usually it’s hard to get much better than 40-50 knots at ground level in my own experience (which admittedly doesn’t include a “real” tropical hurricane) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 7:09 PM, jbenedet said: Or reappear on a high horse with no claim to fame but a free website? Expand Shots fired from all directions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Highest gusts at 41001 are on SW winds, have to wonder about dry slot mixing as the center passes. Understanding tropical air now but mixed after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I wonder if that's a quasi PRE axis arcing off the Del Marv/L.I. there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 4:57 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah... I have a neighbor who is a retired "Journeymen" - that's grid's old-school title for line guys. I can ask.. These may in fact be the factors as you outline. It's interesting to parse that out - I mean... electricity doesn't care ( heh ) where it goes. Population is big and too big, no doubt, but in a sense, if the grid matures along with it, ...doesn't matter. That logic tends to indict the maintenance. Which "maintenance" is kind of a loaded term. It's not just cleaning up after a storm. Obviously where I am going with this, it's as much preventative. Maybe if the ethic was there, it's thus not being complacent, and continuing to develop new technologies ...etc...etc. and there becomes a lot of complexity to what maintenance really "should" mean. But you look out there, you see the same cables strung between poles like I remember when I was kid back when the dinosaurs roamed... Expand The maintenence I was referring to was in regard to preventative maintenance. Too many trees are dead and are not taken away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 7:12 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah there was like a 1-2 hour period that it ripped pretty good down there. The sun actually came out for a time which probably helped destabilize the low levels a bit and then shortly after that we got some pretty big gusts. Usually it’s hard to get much better than 40-50 knots at ground level in my own experience (which admittedly doesn’t include a “real” tropical hurricane) Expand I'm kind of like Josh at this point where I can't get enough of it. When I measured 56kts down on Long Island for Isaias I was pretty stoked, then I got into the eyewall of Laura a few weeks later. There's really nothing like it, and yes I know I'm insane lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 7:14 PM, JC-CT said: Shots fired from all directions Expand Find one person to claim I have dissapeared following a bad forecast, and I'll own it. As for having a blog in relation to a hobby without being famous...guilty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 6:58 PM, Cyclone-68 said: Any appreciable tornado risk on the east side? Expand There will be a modest risk zone in the right front quadrant. Wind profiles are favorable and you don’t need much instability with tropical systems, given rich moisture profiles, but you’ll see a nose of skinny CAPE advect into southeastern SNE. Timing is favorable during peak heating Sunday afternoon to locally boost instability, particularly between rain bands. Since the system is slowing down and weakening, don’t expect the threat to make it too far inland. Picked a sounding near PVD at 18z Sunday and you’ll see a marginally favorable environment. Low level shear supports a brief spin up or two, but without a larger, more intense wind field, the threat should be fairly localized. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 7:12 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah there was like a 1-2 hour period that it ripped pretty good down there. The sun actually came out for a time which probably helped destabilize the low levels a bit and then shortly after that we got some pretty big gusts. Usually it’s hard to get much better than 40-50 knots at ground level in my own experience (which admittedly doesn’t include a “real” tropical hurricane) Expand Outerbands of Irene were spectacular here in ECt and why we suffered the most damage and longest outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 7:16 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I wonder if that's a quasi PRE axis arcing off the Del Marv/L.I. there. Expand I was wondering the same earlier when hints of an eye were trying to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 7:16 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I wonder if that's a quasi PRE axis arcing off the Del Marv/L.I. there. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 7:17 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Find one person to claim I have dissapeared following a bad forecast, and I'll own it. Expand I said shots fired, not targets hit. Never seen you run away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 6:30 PM, Quincy said: The fixation and on surface winds away from the immediate coast always seemed silly. I’ve been trying to stress the somewhat overlooked coastal flooding/surge topic for a while, but it seems like some are more interested with peak wind gust potential atop Mount Tolland. Expand Define “fixation” on winds; I don’t think anyone is expecting 90 mph sustained or gusts to 100+ but I do think sustained to 45 and gust to 70 are possible to Mt Tolland and given the rainfall in sections of CT the last few months that’s enough to cause some damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 7:17 PM, Quincy said: There will be a modest risk zone in the right front quadrant. Wind profiles are favorable and you don’t need much instability with tropical systems, given rich moisture profiles, but you’ll see a nose of skinny CAPE advect into southeastern SNE. Timing is favorable during peak heating Sunday afternoon to locally boost instability, particularly between rain bands. Since the system is slowing down and weakening, don’t expect the threat to make it too far inland. Picked a sounding near PVD at 18z Sunday and you’ll see a marginally favorable environment. Low level shear supports a brief spin up or two, but without a larger, more intense wind field, the threat should be fairly localized. Expand Oh I LOVE that cross-over product! man...geeks dream. That's really pretty cool 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Reports of Henri's death have been greatly exaggerated 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 (CT) Just drive from Derby to North Branford. To note grocery stores are packed. Gas lines are formed. Local gas stations running out of gas. Water is flying off the shelves. Madison and Groton areas are being told to evacuate. We had a hard time getting fast after sandy so I’m not shocked at the gas stuff.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 7:19 PM, JC-CT said: I said shots fired, not targets hit. Never seen you run away. Expand Yea, I was talking to you, not at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now