ma blizzard Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 If Henri is going to intensify, convection will have to start firing up soon near the center .. otherwise it is what it is at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, jbenedet said: I’m not opining based on impact to SE New Hampshire. I’m fascinated and tracking out of interest for south coast, Long Island and SNE (for flooding risks). wind absolutely not the big story—it’s storm surge layered on very high seas—coastal flooding. Heavy rainfall. The fixation and on surface winds away from the immediate coast always seemed silly. I’ve been trying to stress the somewhat overlooked coastal flooding/surge topic for a while, but it seems like some are more interested with peak wind gust potential atop Mount Tolland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Zzzzzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Every TC that comes up this way looks like shit on IR. Even Sandy looked like shit. No rain on the entire eastern half. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, A-L-E-K said: Zzzzzz An Andy Dalton led offense? Yep. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 18 minutes ago, Whineminster said: going to be a nothing burger for you too One would hope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, jbenedet said: Every TC that comes up this way looks like shit on IR. Even Sandy looked like shit. No rain on the entire eastern half. Sandy was about 50mb deeper lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Sandy was about 50mb deeper lol Obviously. Man. And still looked like shit on IR. We’re not in the tropics bro. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Obviously. Man. And still looked like shit on IR. We’re not in the tropics bro. Sandy got an ET boost. With this going into cooler waters and looking like crap with limited ET boost, I don’t see this getting much stronger. That’s all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Obviously. Man. And still looked like shit on IR. We’re not in the tropics bro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Obviously. Man. And still looked like shit on IR. We’re not in the tropics bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 One day Emass might get something interesting tropical wise. Basically missed all.of Sandy Irene Isiasis 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Aren't you a coin or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Yeah... I tend to agree with Scott here. Looks like the window shut on this ordeal. Snowgoose69 was good to mention yesterday, ... ya know, the last 20 .. 30 years, seems we've fielded these slow astride the coast coughing systems and it really is true, in just about every one of them that I can recall ...the lead modeling tried to bomb them ( in relative measure - strengthen markedly tho) as it was lifting. 0 for what ... 7 of 'em. Now, past blah blah doesn't depict the future ..but one is dumb not to learn from it, or they will repeat. That's the rub. Lol. But in this case, it's like we need the title of next ordeal to say, "Model's lying about a deepening a TC" and then let ourselves be wrong before this bs will ever allow us to be right. I'm partially kidding. But I do believe there is something to the models consistently attempting to do this and we end up with pedestrian sort of light to moderate impactors. We'll see what now cast reveals this evening ... ( If that doesn't trigger this thing to suddenly strengthen to category 2 or 3 ...) nothing will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: One day Emass might get something interesting tropical wise. Basically missed all.of Sandy Irene Isiasis They compensate with massive October nor'easters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: One day Emass might get something interesting tropical wise. Basically missed all.of Sandy Irene Isiasis Basically the same. Maybe 5kts lower in Isis? 2019 was a cat 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, Sn0waddict said: That looks more reasonable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: One day Emass might get something interesting tropical wise. Basically missed all.of Sandy Irene Isiasis No canes 4 millenials Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 It’s probably better to look at this more like a sub tropical cyclone at this stage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Biggest question is wind field IMO. I also think surge (esp away from center) will not be as high as forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 18 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Obviously. Man. And still looked like shit on IR. We’re not in the tropics bro. Bro!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 We are thinking still too warm for snow, right? Right? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Trying to talk my sister off a cliff about pulling her boat in Duxbury. SE wind for cape cod bay. Unless there’s a hard right turn im advising not to.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, JC-CT said: We are thinking still too warm for snow, right? Right? Have to watch Maple Hollow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 What happened to Henri? Seems like as soon as they declared Henri a hurricane he has degraded ever since. Maybe he can juice up during dimax but there’s not much moisture in the storm right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Hurricane Belle part 2 45 years later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I loathe each and every one of you My thoughts haven't really changed much after the midday guidance for CT. Maybe I'd go a bit lower on inland winds, but I never thought we needed higher end gusts to create a high impact event because of a combination of heavy rainfall (my main concern), already saturated soils, and the duration of wind gusts. With the center likely to pass over CT I think it's going to be windy everywhere, but obviously worse at the shore and closer to the center before full on decay. Heavy rain, coastal flooding/surge, and enough wind to cause widespread power outages. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Any appreciable tornado risk on the east side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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