Tropical Storm Henri

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Babies and beer. I told them Watch Hill Lighthouse 

Block Island Ferry it.  

[WxWatcher007]

Still a fair amount of spread on the 12z GEFS

[NeonPeon]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is true. Our grid sucks where I am currently.....but CT seems on another scale up though. We saw the massive contrast in both Irene and the Oct 2011 storms too...like towns right next to each other on the border...the MA side would only have scattered outages and the CT side would be like 90-100% out. 

I have a substation near my house. It is out of the 1960s. That's not an exaggeration. That's when it was built. It uses an entire house lot.

My parents have the exact same load of substation in the UK. It is smaller than a garden shed and is an enclosed box.

[USCG RS]

Just now, bristolri_wx said:

This could also be because the grid has weird boundaries with the way the power flows.  Most of the towns on the border in RI don't have direct connections with the towns in MA.  You think it would in 2021, especially when the same company owns the distribution lines on both sides of the border.

Part of that is also because of what happened in 2003. An effort was made to isolate certain parts of the grid, while also having infrastructure to divert power to in case of emergency. 

The former was much easier than the later.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Quincy said:

Highest inland wind gusts from GFS look like maybe 60 MPH. Still robust and damaging, but model simulated wind gusts near the surface are almost always overdone in similar situations. 

One thing to maybe consider too is enhanced mixing given it is daytime. Llvl lapse rates are kinda meh (steep llvl lapse rates helped with Isaias) but I would think we should have no problem really mixing to 925 tomorrow...especially under convective elements. 

Again too...this is all dependent on how strong Henri is when/if it makes landfall along eastern LI and slings into CT. I think if it's as strong as what NHC has it...we have big problems. If it ends up stronger then we will have very serious problems. 

[wxeyeNH]

For a hurricane, Henri looks like crap right now.  Dry air ingesting from the SW?  Sure not a classic looking cane coming up the coast.  I thought it would look much better today. 

[NeonPeon]

4 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Rut roh...

More comfortable digs.

[drstuess]

I have a substation near my house. It is out of the 1960s. That's not an exaggeration. That's when it was built. It uses an entire house lot.
My parents have the exact same load of substation in the UK. It is smaller than a garden shed and is an enclosed box.

I live in Narragansett and lost power 4 times this summer and about 7 times this year so far. US grid average is ~1.3 a year. Kinda pathetic.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[JC-CT]

41 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

The GFS track would probably be not great for my area, heavy rain and wind and then the thing just hooks right over my head.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is true. Our grid sucks where I am currently.....but CT seems on another scale up though. We saw the massive contrast in both Irene and the Oct 2011 storms too...like towns right next to each other on the border...the MA side would only have scattered outages and the CT side would be like 90-100% out. 

I almost wonder if it's regional?    When I moved to this area of the country back in 1984 ... I was amazed at how often "black outs" - they used to be called .. - were here, compared to those earlier years of my fledgling life back in Michigan.

Not saying Michigan is structurally more sound ...but, the power only 'pulsed' on and off during strobe lighting severe thunder, and only one other time did I remember Kalamazoo's grid going down ... I'm not claiming they don't have fragility - just from what I can recall.

But it's like once a year or more around here. 

I wonder why that is -

Sometimes we'll get a 'Cane, or a severe ice storm... or a really weird October snow on oak-leafed sag over power lines ( kind of give that one a pass), and we talk about "pruning" so it won't be as bad on the next one.  But, powers out again ...some way, some how. So much for pruning.  

I mean, it's all fragile when you think about it.  Carrington event would be a hoot -

[bristolri_wx]

Just now, NeonPeon said:

More comfortable digs.

True... but they could have camped out at some nice places on the CT coast as well...

[CoastalWx]

Jay go to the south shore. They lose power for days in every blizzard lol. A lot of it due to heavy wooded areas. CT is also heavily wooded and that just adds to the issue with 60mph winds and foliated  trees. 

[Quincy]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Beg to differ Isiasis overpreformed last year so did Oct 17, April 20.

Pretty sure there was ET going on there. I’m talking about a more “pure” tropical system with a relatively small core wind field. 

[USCG RS]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I almost wonder if it's regional?    When I moved to this area of the country back in 1984 ... I was amazed at how often "black outs" - they used to be called .. - were here, compared to those earlier years of my fledgling life back in Michigan.

Not saying Michigan is structurally more sound ...but, the power only 'pulsed' on and off during strobe lighting severe thunder, and only one other time did I remember Kalamazoo's grid going down ... I'm not claiming they don't have fragility - just from what I can recall.

But it's like once a year or more around here. 

I wonder why that is -

Sometimes we'll get a 'Cane, or a severe ice storm... or a really weird October snow on oak-leafed sag over power lines ( kind of give that one a pass), and we talk about "pruning" so it won't be as bad on the next one.  But, powers out again ...some way, some how.  

I mean, it's all fragile when you think about it.  Carrington event would be a hoot -

It's a combination or weather, lack of maintenance and over population. 

The grids were built a long time ago. They are yet to be update in a true fashion. Meanwhile the NE and W coasts (TX also) continue to become increasingly populated. Strain increases, maintancece continues to decrease and the situation spirals. 

[Torch Tiger]

Not sure it was mentioned, GGEM is pretty close to BID landfall

[fourseasons]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Whats work?

Did the job would probably be a better way to put it.  There was a massive tree-trimming undertaking in the DC area around a decade ago to prevent power outages from trees and branches falling on overhead power lines, and while things still aren't perfect it did help quite a bit in some outage-prone areas.

[amarshall]

Jay go to the south shore. They lose power for days in every blizzard lol. A lot of it due to heavy wooded areas. CT is also heavily wooded and that just adds to the issue with 60mph winds and foliated  trees. 

Every week


.

[moneypitmike]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They get fined per household that’s out after 3 days. And it’s significant . There’s an ES branch a few minutes from here . I see a boatload of out of state trucks filing in 

I hope the fine is paid to the household and not the state.

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I like that track on the gfs as far as how I feel it goes. Big winds for RI.

Great--the power grid is saved!!

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I don’t think people realize how fragile it is.

I think we all do, Scott--that's why we're always joking about it.

19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol nice beach day here

 

Did you break out the old phone for that? 

 

[dendrite]

Feels like my time in APF right now with the deep tropical blues, tall towers, and occasional downpours.

[Quincy]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

One thing to maybe consider too is enhanced mixing given it is daytime. Llvl lapse rates are kinda meh (steep llvl lapse rates helped with Isaias) but I would think we should have no problem really mixing to 925 tomorrow...especially under convective elements. 

Again too...this is all dependent on how strong Henri is when/if it makes landfall along eastern LI and slings into CT. I think if it's as strong as what NHC has it...we have big problems. If it ends up stronger then we will have very serious problems. 

If intensity is AOA NHC progs, then there will be major problems. I just think the realistic scenario is still bad, but a land falling TS with gusts of 50-60 MPH, mainly SE of I-95/395. If there was a solid cat 1 coming onshore at GON, that would be very bad. 

[moneypitmike]

Just now, Torch Tiger said:

Not sure it was mentioned, GGEM is pretty close to BID landfall

Does hitting Block Island constitute land?  

[NeonPeon]

3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

For a hurricane, Henri looks like crap right now.  Dry air ingesting from the SW?  Sure not a classic looking cane coming up the coast.  I thought it would look much better today. 

It's reassuring how bad it has looked. It looked more impressive this morning. I don't see it ever overcoming its asymmetry.

 

 

[TalcottWx]

 

[Patrick-02540]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Massive forest highest density in history of record. Multiple years of ravage by Gypsy moths, ash borer. Leaf growth this year is off the hook due to so much rain. 

Yes, the Ash trees tend to be "road liners" as well.  My neighbor runs a tree service company and he said 50% of the power line damage he saw last year was from the diseased Ash trees.  Gotta get them down. 

[OSUmetstud]

I can see on a eye on the vis now. 

[hlcater]

Not seeing any observations to indicate henri is a hurricane right now. 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

...

Again too...this is all dependent on how strong Henri is when/if it makes landfall along eastern LI and slings into CT. I think if it's as strong as what NHC has it...we have big problems. If it ends up stronger then we will have very serious problems. 

Agree ... and part of that 'strength' is size.   Obviously, smaller total ISE entities will succumb to weakening forces faster than those with more ISE - there's just more momentum in the large -sized scenarios.  

Henri isn't 'big' in that sense.  I think the low level soundings between the Gulf interface and the south coast might be an interesting study if/when then compared to the wind realization down to buoy towers then subsequently whatever comes on land. I wonder if a smaller ISE may end up lifting the cyclostrophic motion above the stabled cool of that zone of oceanic boundary layer - but again, if the sounding is not representative, maybe not either.  Interesting.

[Joe4alb]

Hamptons on Long Island beautiful sky. Lots of low lvl clouds screaming northward

[Wonkis]

17 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

Maybe one of these centuries the usa will behave like it's not a colonial outpost and begin burying power lines.

Itll make everywhere look much more attractive too. I wouldn't tolerate such shitty cable management inside my computer, or behind my tv, but the usa does worse on a national scale. It's absolutely repugnant.

 

Maybe they're waiting to invest in the evolution of grid tech—microgrids or whatever's next.

[George001]

The models are looking weaker with the winds than they were yesterday due to a decrease in the strength of the low. This will still be a severe tropical storm, but maybe with 70-80 mph winds instead of 90-100 mph.