Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: The model strength of the ULL and how far it digs down and also strength intensity. I think if the storm is stronger it may help it get tugged west due to the mid and upper level flow helping to steer the storm along path of least resistance. That's exactly what I was thinking Scott yeah. I mean they're adding 5 mph to get the hurricane sash on this thing - okay. But I almost wonder if that's more ( you know ) part of the NHC's PR jolt to a distracted thankless population that doesn't deserve their service... Seriously though, the so-so look at satellite: it is an interesting coincidence with some guidance trending back E. Internal monologue was thinking that may be because it is shallower and so not as deeply/fully integrated into the U/A circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: C LI to HVN . Staying course Still going with the strong Cat 1 at LF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: You in Bristol right now? My daughter is. Right now - I'm in Providence at work at job #2, but it is where I reside (and have for most of my life). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Hurricane now Icon is into central LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Jay's worried about being under TS Warning vs not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Stolen from Phil’s Twitter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: That's exactly what I was thinking Scott yeah. I mean they're adding 5 mph to get the hurricane sash on this thing - okay. But I almost wonder if that's more ( you know ) part of the NHC's PR jolt to a distracted thankless population that doesn't deserve their service... Seriously though, the so-so look at satellite: it is an interesting coincidence with some guidance trending back E. Internal monologue was thinking that may be because it is shallower and so not as deeply/fully integrated into the U/A circulation. There's total distrust of everyone and everything now. If it was someone's or some groups plan to seed so much doubt into the population that they've brainwashed them into not believing anything, then they've succeeded. Even at a high end tropical storm there's gonna be people surprised about the damage caused... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Jay's worried about being under TS Warning vs not. Lol no I just went to read the details and it wasn't there. I'm actually in Boston right now. Not sure if I will be called in to work. If I'm not ill be chasing this if it's a cane at landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hurricane now Icon is into central LI It's east and slower than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Our son is missing this by a week sadly. One of his roommates is already on campus. Yeah...She has been renting since June. Downtown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 A simple garden variety "winter" Noreaster has more impact then Henri will have. I'm not buying the hype. If you don't experience the above roar of the wind whistle is it really a hurricane? The whistle to the wind is scary because you don't even hear the trees crashing all around. Collapsing thunderstorms around here have more punch. A CT/RI landfall. Still thinking flooding will be the headliner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 BOX 10AM AFD: Quote .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Henri is expected to move into southern New England at some point late tonight into Sunday. Still expecting the axis of heaviest rainfall to be just west of the track. The strongest winds and surge will be to the east of the track. Still plenty of uncertainty regarding the exact track and timing, as evidenced by the slight eastward jog in the 00Z guidance. Probabilities favor a track somewhere between eastern Long Island and Block Island, before reaching the south coast of New England. Expecting rainfall chances to increase this evening, and should be going in earnest after midnight tonight into Sunday. Lots of factors leading to torrential rainfall rates; such as very high precipitable water values and a deep layer of warm rain processes. The big question is where will the heaviest rain occur? This is again tied into the uncertainty in the track of henri. Issued a Flood watch where we are most concerned for heavy rainfall and possible flooding. Based on the latest forecast, we expanded a Tropical Storm Warning into northern CT for a period of low-end tropical storm force winds. May need to consider further adjustments with later forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 This thing took a nosedive off the ugly tree. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 13 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: This was last year's track model verification for those curious. Gfs outperformed the euro at most lead times. It was the best track model from 36-72 overall last season per NHC verification. @CoastalWx I'm a little west of you on LF. Still thinking New Haven to Westerly but closer to the right side of that zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, Cold Miser said: Yeah...She has been renting since June. Downtown Call me biased but Bristol is one of the nicest places you can be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 This was 06z GFS 925mb winds. That would be a nasty little bugger in SE MA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: A simple garden variety "winter" Noreaster has more impact then Henri will have. I'm not buying the hype. If you don't experience the above roar of the wind whistle is it really a hurricane? The whistle to the wind is scary because you don't even hear the trees crashing all around. Collapsing thunderstorms around here have more punch. A CT/RI landfall. Still thinking flooding will be the headliner. Leaves…lots of rain this summer. There could be issues 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's comical how each forecasting source/geography is taking ownership of the track guidance. It's making me actually giggle. It's as though advertising the exciting strike zone as better in our store, competing for ratings has turned weather events into that faux panache of marketing tricks. All these offices ( media ) have software and skill to formulate their own graphics these days ... so, they plug the ensemble member into the graphics engine that is the most dystopian excitement for their own ratings? That's what it comes off as. I have not seen a concensus that supports that far West, and nothing about now cast evinces that as the most likely either. Possible, sure .. All there is, is a couple ensemble members from whichever lusty appeal doing that. The problem is a sociological one. Media has come to an understanding that there are no penalties for false impressions - the forgetfulness of feckless society becomes a marvelous buffer. However, there is huge huge pay-back dividends for getting it right if they roll dice on a scenario and it happens to come true. It's like all of corporate media engages in Bastardiism 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, ROOSTA said: A simple garden variety "winter" Noreaster has more impact then Henri will have. I'm not buying the hype. If you don't experience the above roar of the wind whistle is it really a hurricane? The whistle to the wind is scary because you don't even hear the trees crashing all around. Collapsing thunderstorms around here have more punch. A CT/RI landfall. Still thinking flooding will be the headliner. Yeah, but the archaic power grid in CT bows to 35-40 mph gusts. We have lost power 3 times this summer to much less than a classic nor easter as far as winds go. It's vulnerable locations and businesses and places of residence for certain people that will be the issue, regardless of what sound is heard above. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Call me biased but Bristol is one of the nicest places you can be. We have thought about retiring near/in there, but the tax implications for us might prevent it. Still a ways off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: There's total distrust of everyone and everything now. If it was someone's or some groups plan to seed so much doubt into the population that they've brainwashed them into not believing anything, then they've succeeded. Even at a high end tropical storm there's gonna be people surprised about the damage caused... the best one I saw today was the News station here on LI showing the 06z nam wind speeds and track. I mean is that deliberate to get ratings and wows or was it purely the meteorologist not knowing you never should use the NAM for tropicals or use what was the notable outlier for a model cycle but that just made me boil because I got like 5 phone calls afterwards from people in NYC thinking they’d see 60mph gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: This was 06z GFS 925mb winds. That would be a nasty little bugger in SE MA. If this east jog is to be taken seriously, would need ts warnings for interior se ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Call me biased but Bristol is one of the nicest places you can be. Yeah. Is a nice town...I lived there for 5 years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: A simple garden variety "winter" Noreaster has more impact then Henri will have. I'm not buying the hype. If you don't experience the above roar of the wind whistle is it really a hurricane? The whistle to the wind is scary because you don't even hear the trees crashing all around. Collapsing thunderstorms around here have more punch. A CT/RI landfall. Still thinking flooding will be the headliner. While I agree, I think many are down playing the current wet soil conditions In many places, and you won’t need big winds to bring down some trees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 We have seen blizzards with a lower pressure than what the storm is predicted to be up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Still going with the strong Cat 1 at LF? Yes.. 90 Mph 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Stolen from Phil’s Twitter Looks like really ramping up . Nice presentation 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: We have seen blizzards with a lower pressure than what the storm is predicted to be up here. Yeah but how much foliage is on your trees during a blizzard? Lot weaker winds can take down a whole lot more trees in this scenario. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Jay's worried about being under TS Warning vs not. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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