Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 We’ve got an official cane!!! Now let’s continue rapid intensification! 1 1 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Nick's right to point out that the track guidance is actually NHC's at this point - thanks Nick, I was not aware when I was a snarking LOL. However, the essence of what I was saying is true - media sources do 'hedge' for impressions and I hate it - What is interesting is that they, NHC, appear to be aligning their "consensus" with EPS almost like cut-and-paste. The GEFs don't look that way?? Maybe because the EPS has better verification skills than GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Don’t remember if this was posted but still a general consensus for west. That doesn't look right - only because the UKMET and HWRF aren't showing tracks that far west. UKMET was way east of that last night... unless I'm misunderstanding "UKX2" and "HWF2" abbreviations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’ve got an official cane!!! Now let’s continue rapid intensification! 3mb in 24 hours 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Nick's right to point out that the track guidance is actually NHC's at this point - thanks Nick, I was not aware when I was a snarking LOL. However, the essence of what I was saying is true - media sources do 'hedge' for impressions and I hate it - What is interesting is that they, NHC, appear to be aligning their "consensus" with EPS almost like cut-and-paste. The GEFs don't look that way?? It's literally what pays their bills. I will never understand this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Hurricane warning expanded east to Westport, MA and include all of RI coast & Block Island 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 12z NSSL WRF still likes the west camp: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 11:00 AM update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Looks like the NHC track came a smidge east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, Quincy said: 12z NSSL WRF still likes the west camp: FV3 went from NYC on 0z to New London on the 12z. But ya that above track would not be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 They expanded east probably to acknowledge trends but didn’t move track much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: 3mb in 24 hours At least he stole it back from Forky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, Sn0waddict said: FV3 went from NYC on 0z to New London on the 12z. But ya that above track would not be great. Not sure convective allowing models are good for TCs. The same models in 2015 that PF used to bring snow as he rocked back and forth violently with Heady Topper in hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: They expanded east probably to acknowledge trends but didn’t move track much. I guess they have the benefit of waiting until later to see more guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Quincy said: 12z NSSL WRF still likes the west camp: Yes... also in the much stronger camp too... guessing that's about 975 mb on that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: At least he stole it back from Forky. 20 hours ago, forkyfork said: this is my hurricane now thx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: They expanded east probably to acknowledge trends but didn’t move track much. We've seen them not move the cone as well, saying the current cone covers the uncertainty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Nick's right to point out that the track guidance is actually NHC's at this point - thanks Nick, I was not aware when I was a snarking LOL. However, the essence of what I was saying is true - media sources do 'hedge' for impressions and I hate it - What is interesting is that they, NHC, appear to be aligning their "consensus" with EPS almost like cut-and-paste. The GEFs don't look that way?? Got me too with the graphics. I was just looking back on the east trend that started around 18z and tried to figure out why the NHC moved it west and have not adjusted east. My more emotionally regulated thought was in uncertainty, if it is close to such a large population center, sit on it and get everyone prepared until more confidence in the alternative to avoid the mental whiplash/windshield wiper effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 It appears there is an eye beginning to form on satellite. Not surprised it was upgraded to a 'cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Not sure convective allowing models are good for TCs. The same models in 2015 that PF used to bring snow as he rocked back and forth violently with Heady Topper in hand. It also looks like that as soon as the convective models see weaker system development they kick it a little farther east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 The EPS is heavily factored into their forecasts . If it still remains west and consistent at 12z, they won’t knee jerk to a couple op runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 RGEM a bit west from 6z. Now with a BID track. That's my thinking in the end 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’ve got an official cane!!! Now let’s continue rapid intensification! Seems like we would need a much quicker mover than this in order to maintain hurricane strength as it breaches the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They expanded east probably to acknowledge trends but didn’t move track much. 1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said: I guess they have the benefit of waiting until later to see more guidance. Good call IMO. You can’t waffle back and forth with every model suite. Sure there are trends, but there’s also model noise too. We may see another adjustment through today. Best to maintain continuity and not make drastic shift changes every few hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 24 minutes ago, Quincy said: Maybe because the EPS has better verification skills than GEFS? Uh... if so, I'd like to see their database because the Euro "genome" sucks major donkey balls with tropical genesis/physics, always late to the party, and then that of course is observable out here as user community, when it subsequently can't really "see" it in future charts as a result of that - Bottom line, existentially the op and mean are not really 'better' in the tropics - but don't quote me ... The EPS is superior to the GFS above tropical phenomenon at most scales. The operational has it's own idiosyncrasies, particularly beyond D4.5 ... by in the early mid range, in my experience it is more reliable than the GFS. But I would consider the consensus of all products not including the Euro, before the Euro/EPS, when it comes to tropical handling. You know, ...as an afterthought, it may be a 'morphology of usefulness' - now that Henri is entangled in the larger synoptic conductors, suddenly the EPS "gets" to be more right LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Looks like hurricane force wind probs increased a bit across SE CT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 hours ago, MattPetrulli said: But my hurricane doesn't look like Hayian! Must be a bust! Buzzsaw or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Man, what a classic hurricane sky. Deep blues with crisp-edged cumulus and wisps of cirrus above. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Man, what a classic hurricane sky. Deep blues with crisp-edged cumulus and wisps of cirrus above. Are you on Fisher's right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Quick video update on Henri https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUBabTsQpso 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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