weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said: This is the all timer list. If the NAM is right this wouldn’t make the list. Few days ago we were thinking it could be worse than Isaias. Hopefully the trend is right. Yeah we certainly wouldn’t make the list on that track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Wind impacts look minimal there. They have it covered under storm surge. Would you say there is a better chance for tropical storm conditions at New Haven or Falmouth? You know my answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 allot of rain in Jersey/Eastern PA on that NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We will certainly lose a few It's comical how each forecasting source/geography is taking ownership of the track guidance. It's making me actually giggle. It's as though advertising the exciting strike zone as better in our store, competing for ratings has turned weather events into that faux panache of marketing tricks. All these offices ( media ) have software and skill to formulate their own graphics these days ... so, they plug the ensemble member into the graphics engine that is the most dystopian excitement for their own ratings? That's what it comes off as. I have not seen a concensus that supports that far West, and nothing about now cast evinces that as the most likely either. Possible, sure .. All there is, is a couple ensemble members from whichever lusty appeal doing that. The problem is a sociological one. Media has come to an understanding that there are no penalties for false impressions - the forgetfulness of feckless society becomes a marvelous buffer. However, there is huge huge pay-back dividends for getting it right if they roll dice on a scenario and it happens to come true. It's like all of corporate media engages in Bastardiism 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Quincy said: No wind damage for Kev and no more damaging tor threat. What’s he got left to hope for, maybe damaging rain? He may lose a few branches with southerly flow. Think about quickly and easily it rips through there in the winter to scour out the cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 SREF spread is tightening up. Solid consensus on landfall near eastern LI/BID. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Would you say there is a better chance for tropical storm conditions at New Haven or Falmouth? You know my answer. New Haven 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Pressure has been falling a bit this morning. Some conflicting data from the dropsondes but maybe somewhere below 990mb now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's comical how each forecasting source/geography is taking ownership of the track guidance. It's making actually giggle. All these offices ( media ) have software and skill to formulate their own graphics these days ... so, they plug the ensemble member into the graphics engine that is the most dystopian excitement for ratings? That's what it comes off as. I have not seen a concensus that supports that far West, and noting about now cast evinces that as the most likely either. All there is, is a couple ensemble members from whichever lusty appeal doing that. The problem is a sociological one. Media has come to an understanding that there are no penalties for false impressions - the forgetfulness of feckless society becomes a marvelous buffer. However, there is huge huge pay-back dividends for getting it right if they roll dice on a scenario and it happens to come true. It's like all of corporate media engages in Bastardiism That was the 5am NHC forecast. Bob is straight up. You are off the mark here. Things change over time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Quincy said: SREF spread is tightening up. Solid consensus on landfall near eastern LI/BID. Where are you forecasting it from there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I love how Sam has traded his earlier saggy boob snow maps in New Hampshire for his fancy Tron themed maps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's comical how each forecasting source/geography is taking ownership of the track guidance. It's making actually giggle. All these offices ( media ) have software and skill to formulate their own graphics these days ... so, they plug the ensemble member into the graphics engine that is the most dystopian excitement for ratings? That's what it comes off as. I have not seen a concensus that supports that far West, and noting about now cast evinces that as the most likely either. All there is, is a couple ensemble members from whichever lusty appeal doing that. The problem is a sociological one. Media has come to an understanding that there are no penalties for false impressions - the forgetfulness of feckless society becomes a marvelous buffer. However, there is huge huge pay-back dividends for getting it right if they roll dice on a scenario and it happens to come true. It's like all of corporate media engages in Bastardiism It's the nhc track. Come on. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 NHC forecast is directly fed into their graphics. Isn’t it good to have some uniformity? You don’t want stations going rogue like some do in Oklahoma and start using their own made up warnings, for example. Let’s give ‘em a break. Don’t think that’s a fair criticism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Where are you forecasting it from there? I don’t see any reason to deviate much from the official NHC track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Yeah... the last 12 pages and all that.. I just remember a TS landfalling and weakening smear through the area last year, and it was S winds gusting in squally rains for a couple of hours ..even up here along Rt 2 in N-NE Massachusetts... It ended abruptly and the sun came out ..with the soothing tropical sort of ointment air you get when it gets sort of calmer with more gentler wind gusts after the primitive cool boundary of the underbelly brings in clearing rather abruptly. How could I resist! Perfect cycling... just some wet roads but whatever. Unfortunately, the bike path had a felled large limb if not tree every mile or so along the entire 12. It was a pain in the ass. Power was also out along some adjacent roads I could use as go-arounds, because traffic lights were off or blinking from battery. It was weird, I thought, " ..The winds did not seem really quite that bad... I remember thunderstorms with stronger outflows" etc.. That was winds gusting to may 42 mph in about 2" of rain and some loosely bound rad-based tor warnings. Similar actually to the band that came through yesterday and brought the EOF to Clinton...etc...etc... It occurred to me then that although the entire cinema of it was a disappointing as an "entirely responsible intellect in storm enthusiasm" ( haha ), we cannot really down play 'threat' or negate it too far, just because it's not got the badge of hour Category. 50mph wind gusts in heavy rain and seasonally wet root balls can be hugely problematic. And, ironically ..this strength of TS probably brings a more prolific coverage/realization of tor warning rad trips and dangling ropes sawing off tree tops. There's still plenty to be "responsible" over - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I’ve been using this to make my track forecast. If it’s wrong then mine will too far west and I’ll be wrong on LF. But it still moves NW thru CT and W/ C Mass 6z EPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The accordion player melted hard and fast last night over the west trends too. WHY, Why does everyone think that was a Meltdown? Goes to door how No One understands how I type to my personality. A. I DO NOT want a Tropical System. They take down trees. Good riddance to it. Only good thing is I can go find out find & play for Jim Cantore & maybe get on air. B. It was an Affirmation of my Correct Prediction whichI told all my friends asking, that it would end up Well West of where all models had it Wednesday. It was a VICTORY LAP, not a Meltdown. Jeez. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 While I'm sure I'll still lose power for a few days, I'm glad this thing looks like crap. Was worried about it being an actual hurricane and going right over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's comical how each forecasting source/geography is taking ownership of the track guidance. It's making me actually giggle. It's as though advertising the exciting strike zone as better in our store, competing for ratings has turned weather events into that faux panache of marketing tricks. All these offices ( media ) have software and skill to formulate their own graphics these days ... so, they plug the ensemble member into the graphics engine that is the most dystopian excitement for their own ratings? That's what it comes off as. I have not seen a concensus that supports that far West, and nothing about now cast evinces that as the most likely either. Possible, sure .. All there is, is a couple ensemble members from whichever lusty appeal doing that. The problem is a sociological one. Media has come to an understanding that there are no penalties for false impressions - the forgetfulness of feckless society becomes a marvelous buffer. However, there is huge huge pay-back dividends for getting it right if they roll dice on a scenario and it happens to come true. It's like all of corporate media engages in Bastardiism Literally just had this convo with my wife. There is such a psychology piece to this. I would like to think it is about getting people prepared "just in case" but I'm sure it is all about clicks, likes, and views. If you're a little off and it is not as bad, whatever, the weathermen are always wrong. But if you're right, people remember and then you have a viewer/subscriber for life. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 NHC will have to shift track east I think unless we see a big shift back on the 12z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, PowderBeard said: Literally just had this convo with my wife. There is such a psychology piece to this. I would like to think it is about getting people prepared "just in case" but I'm sure it is all about clicks, likes, and views. If you're a little off and it is not as bad, whatever, the weathermen are always wrong. But if you're right, people remember and then you have a viewer/subscriber for life. The stations are running their graphics from official sources. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 23 minutes ago, Quincy said: 3km NAM pegs eastern LI for landfall Just for trend purposes... the 3km is way east of it's runs yesterday evening.... it's about two runs behind the 12k nam on track and strength at the moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Tip will never acknowledge our points about it being the NHC track and a totally unfair shot at Bob. They literally have to use the NHC track. But as Will says look for adjustments in track and strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 HRRR has been ticking slightly east over time, probably just correcting for the far left track. 12z run shows a slightly more robust wind field, but still takes the center from central LI to near Danbury. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Don’t remember if this was posted but still a general consensus for west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Henri is a hurricane as of 11am ..HENRI IS NOW A HURRICANE... ...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.4N 72.5W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Literally just had this convo with my wife. There is such a psychology piece to this. I would like to think it is about getting people prepared "just in case" but I'm sure it is all about clicks, likes, and views. If you're a little off and it is not as bad, whatever, the weathermen are always wrong. But if you're right, people remember and then you have a viewer/subscriber for life. Nick's right to point out that the track guidance is actually NHC's at this point - thanks Nick, I was not aware when I was a snarking LOL. However, the essence of what I was saying is true - media sources do 'hedge' for impressions and I hate it - What is interesting is that they, NHC, appear to be aligning their "consensus" with EPS almost like cut-and-paste. The GEFs don't look that way?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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