WinterWolf Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: It's going to come down to intensity. This explodes, it's going west. This stays weak, it's going East. Personally, I'm camp w. Agreed. Pretty simple. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just looking at the ships products I think the window to strengthen closes near or just before 06z tonight. Conditions are solid between now and then...its more about the storm at this point than the environment. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 This was Elsa for us. Most of you know I live in this building. Most river energy runs parallel and safely passes us but you know, I’m not poo pooing this storm or taunting it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, USCG RS said: It's going to come down to intensity. This explodes, it's going west. This stays weak, it's going East. Personally, I'm camp w. Explodes is relative of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, radarman said: Sort of agree here. It could end up a landphoon redux and we'd get significant impact. Despite rainfall and saturated ground I think most tree damage is CT/RI. Small windfield and winds are going to decrease pretty quickly as this moves N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You realize who you’re talking to? I know lol..just messin around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On second glance, looking at that NE to SW pass while still a bit broad that's probably the best wind field we've seen yet with Henri. Interested to see the VDM there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: As someone who managed a utility company staging area post Hurricane Michael, it's better to overestimate power loss and have reserves ready to go than be short. Yup. Thank you. So many do not understand this. Underestimating can cost a tremendous increase in the length of outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I can’t decipher much of a synoptic level trend, but I do wonder how intensity affects this thing. Keep an eye on that today for any last minute effects on the track. Maybe a subtle trend for the ridge to be slightly stronger at the end? Could just be noise too: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Yup. Thank you. So many do not understand this. Underestimating can cost a tremendous increase in the length of outages My sister-in-law works at Eversource. Trust me, they are preparing big time. I also heard the communications in CT aren’t the greatest and were exposed during Isaias. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Other recon plane (mission 10) finds the same extrapolated pressure of 992.7 with a similar (albeit flagged) SFMR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: My sister-in-law works at Eversource. Trust me, they are preparing big time. I also heard the communications in CT aren’t the greatest and were exposed during Isaias. Ya my stepmom works for them. They have a huge response prepared 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: Ya my stepmom works for them. They have a huge response prepared Ya they need to, they were horrid last year with Isaias. So they don’t want any type of repeat like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: My sister-in-law works at Eversource. Trust me, they are preparing big time. I also heard the communications in CT aren’t the greatest and were exposed during Isaias. They get fined per household that’s out after 3 days. And it’s significant . There’s an ES branch a few minutes from here . I see a boatload of out of state trucks filing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Anyone expect that slug of rain of NJ to work up in here later? May need to attend to my gutters now if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Center dropsonde here. Might have seen another 1-2mb drop between passes based on the surface wind. Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 13:00ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: HenriStorm Number: 08 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 9Observation Number: 17 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 13Z on the 21st day of the monthHighest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mbCoordinates: 33.7N 72.3WLocation: 213 statute miles (343 km) to the ESE (120°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.Marsden Square: 116 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -59m (-194 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 993mb (29.33 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 26.0°C (79°F) 280° (from the W) 21 knots (24 mph) 925mb 631m (2,070 ft) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 21.2°C (70°F) 275° (from the W) 18 knots (21 mph) 850mb 1,371m (4,498 ft) 20.2°C (68.4°F) 18.8°C (66°F) 275° (from the W) 16 knots (18 mph) Information About Radiosonde:- Launch Time: 12:44Z- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.Highest altitude where wind was reported:- Location: 33.74N 72.28W- Time: 12:44:11ZLowest altitude where wind was reported:- Location: 33.74N 72.26W- Time: 12:48:05ZMean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 275° (from the W)- Wind Speed: 21 knots (24 mph)Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 280° (from the W)- Wind Speed: 14 knots (16 mph)- Depth of Sounding: From 751mb to 993mbAverage Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:- Lowest 150m: 156 gpm - 6 gpm (512 geo. feet - 20 geo. feet)- Wind Direction: 275° (from the W)- Wind Speed: 23 knots (26 mph)Sounding Software Version: AEV 30406 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 993mb (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 26.0°C (79°F) 953mb 24.6°C (76.3°F) 24.1°C (75°F) 921mb 24.8°C (76.6°F) 21.0°C (70°F) 850mb 20.2°C (68.4°F) 18.8°C (66°F) 751mb 16.2°C (61.2°F) 12.2°C (54°F) Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 993mb (Surface) 280° (from the W) 21 knots (24 mph) 978mb 275° (from the W) 23 knots (26 mph) 895mb 270° (from the W) 14 knots (16 mph) 850mb 275° (from the W) 16 knots (18 mph) 801mb 280° (from the W) 10 knots (12 mph) 751mb 15° (from the NNE) 12 knots (14 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: you posted that yesterday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 It’s not making a landfall in western CT as a cat 1, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: They get fined per household that’s out after 3 days. And it’s significant . There’s an ES branch a few minutes from here . I see a boatload of out of state trucks filing in I mean that fine is silly after a certain point. What if a 38 comes? It’s not Eversource that is an issue. I get it for a TS, but eventually we will be knocked into the Stone Age and I wouldn’t blame grid companies. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: You posted that yesterday already but we’re relieved with the weaker and east trends. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, Bostonseminole said: you posted that yesterday So? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, Quincy said: It’s not making a landfall in western CT as a cat 1, lol. NHC had it as a TS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 So what is the issue with Henri? Decoupling of the LLC/MLC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Quincy said: It’s not making a landfall in western CT Fixed your post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: My sister-in-law works at Eversource. Trust me, they are preparing big time. I also heard the communications in CT aren’t the greatest and were exposed during Isaias. Plain and simple....Not enough underground infrastructure and/ or trees removed around the lines. People from other parts of the world, including rural zones laugh at our toothpick, above ground power grid. My 3 friends who work for Eversource will be looking forward to days of overtime incoming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You posted that yesterday already but we’re relieved with the weaker and east trends. I think you’ll be out 4-5 days there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: So? why are you posting it again? Maybe we should break a new thread and separate analysis and CT day after tomorrow posts. Not poking at you, but probably going to get busy here as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Something to think about. As this goes ET near landfall or shortly after, we may see dry air and breaks developing in the overcast. If that happens we may mix some stronger winds down east of track. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: So what is the issue with Henri? Decoupling of the LLC/MLC? Decoupling and then fighting some shear and dry air as it tries to organize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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