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Tropical Storm Henri


wxeyeNH
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I still find it hard to believe in 2021 models could be that far off with the track this close in.  Their cone seems somewhat absurd to me at 2pm tomorrow of NYC or Cape Cod.  It’s probably 98% it ends up within 10-20 miles of their current position forecast at that time 
It's not that bad considering the simulation of binary trough interactions vary. Even slight variance and position a few hours post initialization can lead to big differences 24-36 hrs out in capture, recurve, slow down, landfall point, etc. These are just difficult to model and forecast.
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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I still find it hard to believe in 2021 models could be that far off with the track this close in.  Their cone seems somewhat absurd to me at 2pm tomorrow of NYC or Cape Cod.  It’s probably 98% it ends up within 10-20 miles of their current position forecast at that time 

To be fair, this recurve scenario close to landfall means uncertainty is quite high, at very short lead times. This is just a general rule of thumb. Accuracy goes up once new forward velocity attained. 

What it implies here is a capture (phase). When does that happen and to what degree? It’s a very complex interaction, unfortunately. 

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7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I still find it hard to believe in 2021 models could be that far off with the track this close in.  Their cone seems somewhat absurd to me at 2pm tomorrow of NYC or Cape Cod.  It’s probably 98% it ends up within 10-20 miles of their current position forecast at that time 

Models had Fred going as far west as Mobile Al and corrected back east to Panama City

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the wind threat is decreasing on this unless it really gets going fast. 

 

This seems like the biggest wildcard to me at this point. Track is relatively locked in but I can see a pretty wide range in impacts right now with uncertainty wrt strength. 

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No doubt in my mind it becomes a hurricane. It was just shy yesterday and it's more organized so far today.

For a shot at anything higher than a mid level cat 1 it would need to start intensifying very soon IMO, but keep in mind that intensification is a dynamic process. Sometimes you develop an inner core that's steady state or gradually intensifies (forecasted here), and sometimes--usually due to hot towers developing and rotating around an eyewall--you get a more robust pace of intensification.  

Given the propensity of Henri to fire deep and consistent convection near what is at least a mid level center, and the difficulty it has had so far to fully develop an inner core, I think it's too soon to make any declaratory statements about how intensification will play out. 

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I’m seeing some early signs that Henri is finally organizing around ONE center of circulation. He’s got a lot of work to do, but this very disheveled appearance looks like a “shedding” of the competing MLC, LLC state and evolution into a structure that is vertically stacked. Time is the limiting factor now.

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

I’m seeing some early signs that Henri is finally organizing around ONE center of circulation. He’s got a lot of work to do, but this very disheveled appearance looks like a “shedding” of the competing MLC, LLC state and evolution into a structure that is vertically stacked. Time is the limiting factor now.

Sounds like “too little too late” 

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

No doubt in my mind it becomes a hurricane. It was just shy yesterday and it's more organized so far today.

For a shot at anything higher than a mid level cat 1 it would need to start intensifying very soon IMO, but keep in mind that intensification is a dynamic process. Sometimes you develop an inner core that's steady state or gradually intensifies (forecasted here), and sometimes--usually due to hot towers developing and rotating around an eyewall--you get a more robust pace of intensification.  

Given the propensity of Henri to fire deep and consistent convection near what is at least a mid level center, and the difficulty it has had so far to fully develop an inner core, I think it's too soon to make any declaratory statements about how intensification will play out. 

Yes, very true.  He just can’t seem to do it. The shear can’t seem to kill him(resilient storm), but he can’t seem to bust out either.   We’ll see what today brings? Maybe he finally goes to town?  I’m thinking most likely not though. 

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6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

No doubt in my mind it becomes a hurricane. It was just shy yesterday and it's more organized so far today.

For a shot at anything higher than a mid level cat 1 it would need to start intensifying very soon IMO, but keep in mind that intensification is a dynamic process. Sometimes you develop an inner core that's steady state or gradually intensifies (forecasted here), and sometimes--usually due to hot towers developing and rotating around an eyewall--you get a more robust pace of intensification.  

Given the propensity of Henri to fire deep and consistent convection near what is at least a mid level center, and the difficulty it has had so far to fully develop an inner core, I think it's too soon to make any declaratory statements about how intensification will play out. 

Yup. Just saw the mission 9 data coming in, might have the winds this pass or the next. Thanks for sharing the link.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I love all the storm cancel posts. When it’s a cane at 11:00 and 85-90mph by 5:00 PM.. will be funny to see the backtracking 

No back tracking here bro…just conversation. Nothing wrong with that. We’ll see if he can turn the corner today and tonight. Maybe he does?  Would be very interesting if that does indeed happen. 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes, very true.  He’s just can’t seem to do it. The shear can’t seem to kill him(resilient storm), but he can’t seem to bust out either.   We’ll see what today brings? Maybe he finally goes to town?  I’m thinking most likely not though. 

I think going to town is unlikely too, but I'd probably still give it about a 20% chance FWIW. There is still a fair amount of space left for intensification. 

3 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Yup. Just saw the mission 9 data coming in, might have the winds this pass or the next. 

Maybe on the eastern side. It wouldn't take much to get over the threshold but they still need to sample that part. 

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