WeatherWilly Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Not surprised honestly with the way this has been moving west for a while. Until you see some stabilization in the track it's foolish to make a forecast. By tomorrow it will probably be near NYC. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Hurricane center just upped the northern part of CT’s southern counties to Hurricane Warnings! It’s getting serious now. Phone just went off with the Hurricane warning lol…startled the sh*t out of me. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Very interesting VDM Maybe an eye trying to form deeper in the convection per recon. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 3:28ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307Storm Name: HenriStorm Number & Year: 08 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 7Observation Number: 17 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 2:59:50ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 32.04N 73.60WB. Center Fix Location: 248 statute miles (400 km) to the SSE (153°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,417m (4,649ft) at 850mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 90° at 12kts (From the E at 14mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 38kts (43.7mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) of center fix at 2:49:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 148° at 52kts (From the SSE at 59.8mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix at 2:47:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 24kts (27.6mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) to the SW (229°) of center fix at 3:19:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 317° at 37kts (From the NW at 42.6mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the SW (230°) of center fix at 3:13:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 850mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical milesRemarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) which was observed 85 nautical miles (98 statute miles) to the SE (130°) from the flight level center at 1:32:00Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... SECONDARY EYE-LIKE FEATURE VISIBLE ON RADAR 48NM SE OF FL FIX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Well, we are going against Gov. Baker's wishes and heading to Cotuit Saturday morning. The house we're renting is on the south side of Shoestring Bay about a mile from Loop Beach. It's at about 25' asl, so I'm not worried about surge, just the gusty winds taking out power. Hopefully this doesn't end up being a mistake, but it sure will be an adventure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 27 minutes ago, TheSnowman said: ALSO - Grace being Forecasted as a Cat 1 a day ago for landfall. OF COURSE you knew it would be a Cat 2 or 3. Happens EVERY TIME. Michael being a Cat 5 at landfall being the Most Dangerous example. But they always underdo it. I think things overcorrected too far to the left...its not hitting NYC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 36 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Is it me or did the NHC nudge west with track with 11 PM update? Also increased surge in LIS to 3-5 feet along CT shore Yep, another 30 miles west, moving from about Southampton to Sayville since 5 pm. Was at the CT/RI border at 11 am and was at Newport at 5 am, so quite a change in 18 hours. Only 55 miles from Manhattan, so 2 more nudges west. If you had asked me yesterday if I thought NYC was really at risk I would've said it was theoretically possible, but not happening. Hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Very interesting VDM Maybe an eye trying to form deeper in the convection per recon. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 3:28ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307Storm Name: HenriStorm Number & Year: 08 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 7Observation Number: 17 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 2:59:50ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 32.04N 73.60WB. Center Fix Location: 248 statute miles (400 km) to the SSE (153°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,417m (4,649ft) at 850mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 90° at 12kts (From the E at 14mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 38kts (43.7mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) of center fix at 2:49:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 148° at 52kts (From the SSE at 59.8mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix at 2:47:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 24kts (27.6mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) to the SW (229°) of center fix at 3:19:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 317° at 37kts (From the NW at 42.6mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the SW (230°) of center fix at 3:13:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 850mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical milesRemarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) which was observed 85 nautical miles (98 statute miles) to the SE (130°) from the flight level center at 1:32:00Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... SECONDARY EYE-LIKE FEATURE VISIBLE ON RADAR 48NM SE OF FL FIX Was waiting for a plane to actually fly further SE and check out that area , kept checking recon Obs posted on another site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 GFS at 33 a tou ch east of 18z. heading for a landfall just east of LI i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Yup GFS gonna be east as well. Consistently 5mb to 8mb weaker than 18z run also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 SE CT landfall on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 The NHC often is slow to react to trends in an effort to avoid overreacting and windshield wipering....there is a lag, if you will....they will drift back eastward tmw. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Waterford FTW on the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The NHC often is slow to react to trends in an effort to avoid overreacting and windshield wipering....there is a lag, if you will....they will drift back eastward tmw. Didn’t want to say it myself, but ya pretty much this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, Sn0waddict said: Didn’t want to say it myself, but ya pretty much this. But the caveat to that idea is that they just nudged it west 45 minutes ago…??? So they must have a good reason for doing this basically just now. However, I don’t think it hits NYC directly either. But who knows? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Was waiting for a plane to actually fly further SE and check out that area , kept checking recon Obs posted on another site Hopefully recon can check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, WinterWolf said: But the caveat to that idea is that they just nudged it west 45 minutes ago…??? So they must have a good reason for doing this basically just now. However, I don’t think it hits NYC directly either. But who knows? Not that I’m saying the 0z changes everything. 6z could go back west, but I imagine they prepared the forecast package prior to the latest runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Midnight Video on Henrihttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbEsSU22fls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Not that I’m saying the 0z changes everything. 6z could go back west, but I imagine they prepared the forecast package prior to the latest runs. Let's look at facts in play: - We're now within 48 hours of landfall, so modeling should be improving in general. - That cut-off low west of Henri is now forming and no longer "theoretical" and is probably now better sampled from observation data. - We have multiple recon flights into Henri ingesting data into the models. The only thing probably not sampled as well is the ridge/blocking to the east of Henri. While nothing is ever certain, I think it's fair to say that @40/70 Benchmark is correct in the assumption that the west trend is ending and maybe overdone by some of the models and the correction is underway. Central to eastern CT is probably where landfall will occur, maybe a chance it gets as far as Westerly or Charlestown RI. While we need to see the Euro to be sure, probably just some "wobbles" or "blips" going forward on the major models and you'll probably see the crap models that are taking it into NJ and NYC correct farther east. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, bristolri_wx said: Let's look at facts in play: - We're now within 48 hours of landfall, so modeling should be improving in general. - That cut-off low is now forming and no longer "theoretical" and is probably now better sampled from observation data. - We have multiple recon flights into Henri ingesting data into the models. The only thing probably not sampled as well is the ridge/blocking to the east of Henri. While nothing is ever certain, I think it's fair to say that @40/70 Benchmark is correct in the assumption that the west trend is ending and maybe overdone by some of the models and the correction is underway. Central to eastern CT is probably where landfall will occur, maybe a chance it gets as far as Westerly or Charlestown RI. While we need to see the Euro to be sure, probably just some "wobbles" or "blips" going forward on the major models and you'll probably see the crap models that are taking it into NJ and NYC correct farther east. Yes agreed. Though where/if it takes a last second turn left before landfall is gonna make quite the difference for some people. That will be a nowcast situation for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: But the caveat to that idea is that they just nudged it west 45 minutes ago…??? So they must have a good reason for doing this basically just now. However, I don’t think it hits NYC directly either. But who knows? They did in response to the trends of this past day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Montauk Point....watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 15 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Not that I’m saying the 0z changes everything. 6z could go back west, but I imagine they prepared the forecast package prior to the latest runs. I'm not criticizing NHC...you have to act conservatively in that position. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Wow this is an ugly sheared mess right now. LLC looks completely decoupled from MLC. If trends continue then there may not be much left of it by the weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 CMC right into the RI/Ct border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 This may be akin to tracking 5 days for an inch of snow... 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, weathafella said: This may be akin to tracking 5 days for an inch of snow... One for the ages Jerry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Lots of noise, but some more ensemble data… 21z SREF (latest) mean track is into central/eastern Long Island, but a few ARW members are clustered near RI/SE MA. The NMM members (blue) are more amped, as usual, resulting in more of a westward deviation. Meanwhile, 00z HREF mean track is more in line with the westward track: Not sure how useful the NSSL WRF is for a tropical system, but it is closer to the overall model consensus. It shows a landfall near Southampton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 This may be pulling a TS Chris right now. Looks completely sheared with full decoupling. I expect hurricane warnings to be dropped. Won't be more than a weak TS at landfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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