ORH_wxman Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 It's weird to see such a uniform wind pattern like that for a New England TC....so used to seeing the expanding windfield and the best winds well east of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well I'd probably revise my call here on that, but the NAM and tropicals don't have the best history. We'll see what the big boy models do. the nam is the absolute last model i'd use 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, forkyfork said: the nam is the absolute last model i'd use I know lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 NAM mudslides DIT into electric blue. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It's weird to see such a uniform wind pattern like that for a New England TC....so used to seeing the expanding windfield and the best winds well east of the center. Yeah I mentioned that too. I don't really see any signs much of ET transition until it really weakens. So weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, Heat Miser said: Agreed. I could have bought into that possibility yesterday, but the window is quickly closing on significant intensification. Category 2 is nothing. Really easily doable... have you guys lived through a category 2? A well-build cabin can withstand those conditions. It's insulting to say that we cannot reach it we are a cane town now just watch. We lost the snow but we gained the cane. Cancels out... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 There’s no reason to change any thoughts about intensity right now. This is a 70mph TS and even modest intensification would bring it near the NHC forecast. Don’t be a prisoner of the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Our head met at 7 just mentioned a potential run to category 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I mentioned that too. I don't really see any signs much of ET transition until it really weakens. So weird. It's like a really weak version of Carol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said: Our head met at 7 just mentioned a potential run to category 2 Rhino going wild? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said: Our head met at 7 just mentioned a potential run to category 2 JB says cat 2 and 25 billion in damage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Rhino going wild? Sounds like the 7 weather team is sounding the alarm. I hope people are taking it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's weird to see such a uniform wind pattern like that for a New England TC....so used to seeing the expanding windfield and the best winds well east of the center. Wow! NAM came east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the nam is the absolute last model i'd use Because it leaves NJ out 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 I would only trust the NAM for a TC in the scenario of “models trending west can models trending east” count. Other than that not very useful and too erratic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 First Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/hurricane-watch-issued-for-south-coast.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: First Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/hurricane-watch-issued-for-south-coast.html 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Nam has some subtle differences at h250 that might account for the shift east. Trough interacts with upstream features a tad more and can't go as negative. Allows for more bagginess offshore. Granted this is probably overanalysis, but something to keep an eye on when the GFS rolls in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Sounds like the 7 weather team is sounding the alarm. I hope people are taking it seriously. i'm watching 7 now 3-40mph gusts 1"-2" of rain for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Ryan’s got LF into HVN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Sounds like the 7 weather team is sounding the alarm. I hope people are taking it seriously. Well they have to for a large viewership. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 17 minutes ago, qg_omega said: This is a dangerous tweet, nothing supports cat 2, nothing He has really gone to crap since his accuweather days… sad… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 The NAM hitting a tropical system correctly is like the Toronto Maple Leafs winning a first round playoff series 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 599 WTNT43 KNHC 202042 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Henri appears to be slowly gaining strength. Deep convection has been increasing during the past few hours and the upper-level outflow continues to become better established on the east side of the circulation. However, the low-level center is still located near the northwestern edge of the deep convection due to ongoing northerly wind shear. An ASCAT-B pass from a few hours ago showed peak winds of around 55 kt, with the strongest winds on the southeast side of the circulation. Based on this data, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Henri again this evening and the data the plane collects will be very helpful in estimating the storm's strength and structure. The tropical storm appears to be making the advertised turn to the right, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 335/6 kt. A trough over the central Appalachians is expected to cut off tonight, and the combination of that feature and a building ridge to the east/northeast of Henri should cause the storm to accelerate to the north on Saturday. The latest model runs have generally trended to the left again and are a bit faster, with most showing landfall in about 48 hours. Most of the models now show a slight left turn before landfall as Henri gets caught in the circulation of the aforementioned trough. The latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble members continue to span a region from near New York City to Cape Cod for the landfall point. Based on the latest consensus aids, the official track forecast has again been nudged to the west of the previous one and shows landfall occurring on Sunday. After day 3, Henri is forecast to eject northeastward. The ongoing northerly shear is expected to decrease tonight, and the global models show a favorable upper-level wind pattern developing over the storm through the weekend. These more conducive atmospheric conditions combined with the warm Gulf Stream waters should allow Henri to strengthen to a hurricane tonight or early Saturday, with additional intensification expected into Saturday night. By early Sunday, however, Henri is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream, and that should end its opportunity for strengthening. Although steady to rapid weakening is forecast while Henri moves over cooler waters south of Long Island and New England, it will likely still be at or very near hurricane intensity when it reaches the coast. Post-tropical transition is forecast to occur by day 3 and the system should dissipate in 4 or 5 days. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible beginning Sunday in western portions of Long Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge Watch area. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin Sunday in portions of Long Island and Connecticut, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are possible Sunday across portions of Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday. 4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast of the U.S. through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 31.2N 73.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 32.8N 73.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 35.8N 72.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 38.9N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 40.8N 72.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 42.0N 72.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/1800Z 42.9N 72.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 24/1800Z 43.8N 68.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Well they have to for a large viewership. Going by that logic we should of kept orange dust around. Just enjoy the storm don't over-analyze the situation. There will be more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ryan’s got LF into HVN My friend who got a freelance job at Channel 8 is thinking of staying in Branford Sunday...I may join him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Boom 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: My friend who got a freelance job at Channel 8 is thinking of staying in Branford Sunday...I may join him! Bubble bubble toil trouble in hot tub? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well they have to for a large viewership. Yeah they have viewers in E CT and RI....even if SE MA is unlikely to get hit hard, those other areas definitely could. Can't really rule our areas near EWB getting it good yet either....if this tickles east then they are back in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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