bristolri_wx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That might actually bring surge waters into downtown Providence in that scenario. I think who's a 1938 aficionado ...I'm almost certain there's a high-water mark around Town Hall that has the 1938 ... I may be fantasizing that ... but, that Buzzard Bay in a bad bad spot for that stream line analysis - heh Definitely a storm surge up the bay alignment... thankfully the hurricane barrier is still functional for Providence... other areas without a barrier not as lucky... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Quote BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HENRI INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 200 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2021 ...HENRI ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 73.8W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MONTAUK * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM KINGS POINT TO MONTAUK * FLUSHING NEW YORK TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET, MARTHA'S VINEYARD, AND BLOCK ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET, MARTHA'S VINEYARD, AND BLOCK ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET NEW YORK * WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR NEW YORK * WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE, IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- AT 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST. HENRI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT, AND HENRI IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE IN THAT DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, HENRI IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND HENRI IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY AND BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM) FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.35 INCHES). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- KEY MESSAGES FOR HENRI CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT3, WMO HEADER WTNT43 KNHC AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT3.SHTML?KEY_MESSAGES. STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... WATCH HILL, RI TO SAGAMORE BEACH, MA INCLUDING NARRAGANSETT BAY, BUZZARDS BAY, VINEYARD SOUND, NANTUCKET SOUND, AND CAPE COD BAY...3-5 FT EAST ROCKAWAY INLET, NY TO MONTAUK POINT, NY...2-4 FT NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND...2-4 FT FLUSHING, NY TO WATCH HILL, RI...2-4 FT CAPE MAY, NJ TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET, NY...1-3 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY. RAINFALL: HENRI MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS NEAR 8 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM HENRI WILL RESULT IN FLASH, URBAN, AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR AND ISOLATED MODERATE RIVER FLOODING. SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY HENRI SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: HWRF actually much more east from 6z. And HMON goes into Asbury park. LOL. I'm still very leery of the tickle east....there's a great ULL in place for sling-shotting this west, but the upstream blocking isn't nearly as prolific as Sandy was, and that makes the trough susceptible to eastward leaks....esp with upstream kicker s/w. Not an easy forecast though....glad I don't have to do it. If the ULL captures this and tightens up a bit, then it will really want to go west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: HMON likely Ron Washington of tropical models. Then what's the Cras? Still some hope for you folks in se Mass (if you're into this sorta thing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That might actually bring surge waters into downtown Providence in that scenario. I think who's a 1938 aficionado ...I'm almost certain there's a high-water mark around Town Hall that has the 1938 ... I may be fantasizing that ... but, that Buzzard Bay in a bad bad spot for that stream line analysis - heh There is for both ‘38 and 1815 in fact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2pm 994mb NNW 6mph 70MPH winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm still very leery of the tickle east....there's a great ULL in place for sling-shotting this west, but the upstream blocking isn't nearly as prolific as Sandy was, and that makes the trough susceptible to eastward leaks....esp with upstream kicker s/w. Not an easy forecast though....glad I don't have to do it. If the ULL captures this and tightens up a bit, then it will really want to go west. Yeah more often than not we see that, especially if we get deep convection when even the faintest westerly motion will tick it east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Then what's the Cras? Still some hope for you folks in se Mass (if you're into this sorta thing). Ha, nah I'm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That might actually bring surge waters into downtown Providence in that scenario. I think who's a 1938 aficionado ...I'm almost certain there's a high-water mark around Town Hall that has the 1938 ... I may be fantasizing that ... but, that Buzzard Bay in a bad bad spot for that stream line analysis - heh. Actually edit: that's kind of a weaker system there... well, maybe not. But if a stronger system moving into that position would be - it's here : https://www.weather.gov/box/1938hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 55 minutes ago, dendrite said: My Davis says 13mph but this is easily tropical storm force. When whole trees blew over in Isaias last year it was no joke. I am hoping cooler waters and heads prevail. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 I thought the CRAS model discontinued in 2017 or 2018.....they brought it back? LOL...or maybe there was another version in the works waiting to be released upon us like locusts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mj-pvd Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That might actually bring surge waters into downtown Providence in that scenario. I think who's a 1938 aficionado ...I'm almost certain there's a high-water mark around Town Hall that has the 1938 ... I may be fantasizing that ... but, that Buzzard Bay in a bad bad spot for that stream line analysis - heh. Actually edit: that's kind of a weaker system there... well, maybe not. But if a stronger system moving into that position would be - There is a great marker on the mercantile building in downtown PVD, think its right around the second floor. hence the barrier my grandfather has a great story he was at football practice in 38 and they called off practice when the ball went backwards on a kick. little later on the rectory lost its roof. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 GEFS really hinting at the slingshot NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I thought the CRAS model discontinued in 2017 or 2018.....they brought it back? LOL...or maybe there was another version in the works waiting to be released upon us like locusts. It's definitely tactless and insensitive - I'll give it that ... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 This red annotated region in that track wedge may as well mail in the insurance forms now ...cuz that's liable to be one contiguous tornado vortex if this ens mean works out... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 ern LI on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Right over Wolfies fanny. That's pretty serious for SE half of CT and big rains western CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: ern LI on the euro. Looks like an 80-100 mile shift west from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Right over Wolfies fanny. That's pretty serious for SE half of CT and big rains western CT. Ginxy's fence ripped apart by flying dog logs? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Ginxy's fence ripped apart by flying dog logs? Just smashing against the house and sticking to siding like art clay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 That's really nothing much when you get N and E of PVD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Right over Wolfies fanny. That's pretty serious for SE half of CT and big rains western CT. On rt 3 to secure cape house. I don't think it even needs to be done really. But better safe than sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: ern LI on the euro. Not as beefy as GFS but SLP locations are within 10-15mi of each other there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 @Ginx snewx can I come by Ill sleep in the dog beds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: That's really nothing much when you get N and E of PVD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Euro unravels Henri over Litchfield hills. Reserve a spot on any neighbor’s boat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ginxy's fence ripped apart by flying dog logs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 That's massive flooding near NYC to CT/NY border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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