Tropical Storm Henri

[Cyclone-68]

Potential weather event of the decade maybe (locally)?

[moneypitmike]

West is best as we tick closer.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Was it Irene down your way? It was Bob up here.

Bob in 91. 

[The Graupler]

This is going to keep going west. Nice breezy Sunday afternoon down the Cape.  Eastern New York gets sogged out 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, dryslot said:

Was it Irene down your way? It was Bob up here.

1991 (Bob) was the last land-falling Hurricane in New England.

[Windspeed]

That being said the surge won’t be nearly as bad as Sandy. As others pointed out the driver for the surge there was the huge size and track which funneled water into LI Sound and NY Harbor. But if this starts really trending west toward Sandy Hook then NYC really does have to start worrying. 

Further west track may be faster motion into landfall as well due to better steering influence of the mid-to-upper trough. The pure NE landfall is more of a slow-down prior to landfall. But it's a little too early to know for sure on these interactions.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Define "Ages".

When New England hasn't seen a land-falling Hurricane in many posters here lifetime, I'd say it's noteworthy.

It's probably a silly subjective 'philosophical' take but... "ages" in that context - in literary circles - just means the impact-affects at cultural scales, incurring changes in modes of thinking therefrom in aftermath, and modality of means.   The more so, the greater the 'age' of distinction?

In that sense... Cat 1 ... 3  ... 5 means nothing. 

A stalled tropical storm in Texas in the 1970s dumped 40 " of rain and that changed the climate thinking of what can happen in Texas, and probably ... led/helped constructed Harvey response/understanding at least a little...etc... ( May not be the best example but helps the point - )

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

1991 (Bob) was the last land-falling Hurricane in New England.

And that still may hold.  No guarantee this is one.

[Kevin Reilly]

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Icon initialized at 1000mb  

Currently at 995 mb so too weak 

[Sn0waddict]

Soooo about the WRF-ARW making landfall in Toms River nj. I’m sure it’s a terrible model, just pointing it out.

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

1991 (Bob) was the last land-falling Hurricane in New England.

I don't remember where Irene made landfall or if it was even still a hurricane?  I just remember WNE getting drowned.  I've never seen anything like it on the local rivers.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

1991 (Bob) was the last land-falling Hurricane in New England.

Still would not place this in a one for the ages category, Sandy fell into that for sure, We had some cutters this past winter that would rival this, Not down playing the surge rain and wind, And there will be tree damage because of the time of year but if this came in as a cat 2 or 3 then yes with a larger surge of water, It would fall in the category for the ages.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I don't remember where Irene made landfall or if it was even still a hurricane?  I just remember WNE getting drowned.  I've never seen anything like it on the local rivers.

[hooralph]

1 hour ago, Sn0waddict said:

I may be in the worst possible position right now for this. No power for multiple days or rain that’s floods my house. What wonderful options to chose from . Ugh.

We rented a beach house on the water there in Milford to start next Friday. 

[CCHurricane]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I don't remember where Irene made landfall or if it was even still a hurricane?  I just remember WNE getting drowned.  I've never seen anything like it on the local rivers.

Irene was not a hurricane when it made its way through New England 

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, dryslot said:

Still would not place this in a one for the ages category, Sandy fell into that for sure, We had some cutters this past winter that would rival this, Not down playing the surge rain and wind, And there will be tree damage because of the time of year but if this came in as a cat2 or 3 then yes, It would fall in the category for the ages.

If your speaking of impacts, sure.   But if your speaking of Hurricanes hitting, New England this could fall into a rare category.

[WeatherHappens]

3 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Soooo about the WRF-ARW making landfall in Toms River nj. I’m sure it’s a terrible model, just pointing it out.

 

wouldn't surprise me if that's where it ends up

[Damage In Tolland]

I think the thoughts we have seen from some of massive weakening are not correct. It’s not going to weaken into a weak TS from a strong cat 2 or 3 in 6 hours. Weaken yes, but it’ll remain cane inland to some degree 

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep this is nothing like Sandy on a size scale (and likely strength too). The only similarity is the left turn it takes which is somewhat unusual.

Mm,  the blocking node/-NAO with the U/A capute are very similar -

There's a amplitude difference in those conducting large synoptic events, comparing the total manifold of Sandy and this, but in principle they are most certainly similar.  

A Sandy comparison is not BS - sorry.  We can't get cute with exact parametrical comparisons - first of all, that's a snow-flake comparison argument.  Second, it only means anything to petty squabbles in the social internet; 90% of the civility between Cape May and CT is not going to engage in pettiness.   It came from the E in both cases and fugged up their lives.

Science can hyper categorize later on after the dust settles... and probably those quantification efforts would reveal more that 50% likeness -

[dryslot]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

If your speaking of impacts, sure.   But if your speaking of Hurricanes hitting, New England this could fall into a rare category.

Well its the impact and damage is what everyone will remember, Yes, It is in the very rare category ala last one being Bob.

[The Graupler]

Irene was a fluctuo-cane as it’s derived in the industry.  You don’t see those too often… especially not in this area.  I think this fact paired with the upper systemic bias of the convoluted jet stream and you get the heavy flooding associated with Irene. 
 

this is unlikely with Henri 

[Sn0waddict]

5 minutes ago, hooralph said:

We rented a beach house on the water there in Milford to start next Friday. 

Ehhh maybe they will give you a nice discount if the place is damaged lol

[ldub23]

 

[bristolri_wx]

I'm not quite convinced yet that this storm goes as far west as some of these models are indicating.  This isn't because I want a hurricane to pass right overhead like Bob did.  That was a mess in Bristol as the eye went right over us, though as many have mentioned it was entirely different setup.  However this westward track is all based on the ULL capturing the storm and forcing it westward at the end before EC transition.  While this is a tropical system, we've seen this scenario before with other low pressure systems where models like to capture a storm and keep it west, only for this not to occur exactly as modeled, or it happens later farther east.  I think the NHC with it's conservative guidance on this track is probably considering this as well.  It's an unusual track of approach for this type of storm and then the interaction is also unusual so I'm betting more common sense human forecasting is going to prevail in this one.

[Bruinsyear]

19 minutes ago, dryslot said:

A high end cat 1 is not one for the ages............lol

How often do we have them around here? Seriously though. I'm not talking all time but Bob is one for the "ages" that was really the last legit storm here in EMA/CMA, besides Cape/Islands.

[Mj-pvd]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Well its the impact and damage is what everyone will remember, Yes, It is in the very rare category ala last one being Bob.

there we a lot of weeping willows b4 bob,  can't even remember last time I saw one.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm,  the blocking node/-NAO with the U/A capute are very similar -

There's a amplitude difference in those conducting large synoptic events, comparing the total manifold of Sandy and this, but in principle they are most certainly similar.  

A Sandy comparison is not BS - sorry.  We can't get cute with exact parametrical comparisons - first of all, that's a snow-flake comparison argument.  Second, it only means anything to petty squabbles in the social internet; 90% of the civility between Cape May and CT is not going to engage in pettiness.   It came from the E in both cases and fugged up their lives.

Science can hyper categorize later on after the dust settles... and probably those quantification efforts would reveal more that 50% likeness -

You are talking about a path we are talking about size, fetch, integrated kinetic energy. Not even in the same ballpark. 

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm,  the blocking node/-NAO with the U/A capute are very similar -

There's a amplitude difference in those conducting large synoptic events, comparing the total manifold of Sandy and this, but in principle they are most certainly similar.  

A Sandy comparison is not BS - sorry.  We can't get cute with exact parametrical comparisons - first of all, that's a snow-flake comparison argument.  Second, it only means anything to petty squabbles in the social internet; 90% of the civility between Cape May and CT is not going to engage in pettiness.   It came from the E in both cases and fugged up their lives.

Science can hyper categorize later on after the dust settles... and probably those quantification efforts would reveal more that 50% likeness -

I feel comfortable saying this won't be nearly as destructive as Sandy was. It's so much smaller.

That is not the same as saying it won't be destructive somewhere....it probably will, but likely a much smaller area and probably less intense.

 

edit: I did already say earlier that the "left hook" aspect could be similar....which will need to be watched carefully for localized big storm surge somewhere.

[moneypitmike]

15 minutes ago, The Graupler said:

This is going to keep going west. Nice breezy Sunday afternoon down the Cape.  Eastern New York gets sogged out 

There are worse ways to experience a weekend in August.

If nothing else, this is a good primer for winter season trying to keep up with posts.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Id like this to stall right over Cohassett to see 10" of rain and 50-70mph winds. Seems doable. I'll take the rain fetish...rain typically boring unless it's hard and fast.

Did DIT hack your account?