Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: He may even be able to go out for a quick run as the eye moves overhead Let’s eyewall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: He is almost at 74W Way more west than forecasted by models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 17 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said: Good to see my estimate of the storm impact is gaining traction now among the meteorology community. Any comparison to Sandy is irresponsible. Sandy was fueled by an enormous high speed jet interaction with a side Cat 2 hurricane that slowly built up a massive wall of water. No comparison 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: Mind sharing website you're using to track? https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-14-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said: I am one of the most skilled tropical forecasters on this board. I was ringing alarm bells about hurricane conditions in SNE and RFQ impacts well before anyone else on this board. You have to give credit where it is due. I shouldn't be five posted just because I have skill in forecasting these events. Link to your skill scores? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-14-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined It is blowing up in the last few frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 You can definitely tell the shear is relaxing on Henri. There's decent outflow across the northern semicircle of the cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 16 minutes ago, Quincy said: Latest SREF low centers at 12z Sunday: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_Spaghetti_Low_Centers__ Oh ...shoot - missed ur op to fug with folks there. You should have put a big H in the mix- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Something firing on the north side of the LLC, or am I seeing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: I would much rather lose power for a week then have flooding problems. Losing power is merely just an inconvenience. Flooding...well that can be just devastating no that is not true. Losing power over a long period of time can be way more than an inconvenience for most. possible to lose all frozen and refrigerated foods, people on wells have no water, etc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 18 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said: Good to see my estimate of the storm impact is gaining traction now among the meteorology community. By next Monday at the latest you will be hosting a show on The Weather Channel !! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Looks like the center explodes in the last hour https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 I’m expecting blustery showers. Waves will be big. These things generally underwhelm, so not worried much at all. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Link to your skill scores? IIRC, mets here and elsewhere were all over Sandy's sharp left turn, and a hit in the ORF to BOX area a week prior to landfall. It's the biggest lead time I can recall for such an anomalous event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 look at her blossom.. IR Loop - Tropical Storm HENRI (tropicaltidbits.com) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 24 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said: Good to see my estimate of the storm impact is gaining traction now among the meteorology community. Yeah... they're being unkind in the bun Tsunamis but ... if you are really on the Jersey shore, I would not assess "storm impact gaining traction" for your location. In fact, if it approaches CT from the SSE, you may end up in strikingly beautiful lighter winds pushing 79/75 tropical balm, while the heaviest rain is up the coast toward NYC. Trauma of Sandy may guide more so than present 'clearer' impression of threat assessing, but ..as there are no certainties in the weather-related risk game, it can't hurt to be prepared. And one should always monitor, either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, David-LI said: Looks like the center explodes in the last hour https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Weather channel saying it’s steady state currently… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: no that is not true. Losing power over a long period of time can be way more than an inconvenience for most. possible to lose all frozen and refrigerated foods, people on wells have no water, etc. you can lose your entire home and pretty much everything you own, not to mention life, from flooding. Food can be replaced. You can adapt to losing power...hard to adapt to your house being flooded out. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: Looks like the center explodes in the last hour https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Gravity waves are fun, but the center still isn't the center, or close to it, thankfully. All that stuff is southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Quote There is some uncertainty in the exact position of Henri given the recent aircraft fixes and the tilt of the vortex, but the initial motion appears to be northwestward at 6 kt. A trough over the central Appalachians is expected to cut off tonight, and the combination of that feature and a building ridge to the east/northeast of Henri should cause the storm to turn northward tonight and accelerate in that direction on Saturday. Some of the models show a slight bend to the west around the time Henri is forecast to make landfall on Sunday, and there remains a fair amount spread in the guidance in where the center of Henri will come ashore. The latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble members span a region from near New York City to Cape Cod for the landfall point. Based on the latest consensus aids and initial position, the official track forecast is nudged to the west of the previous one and shows landfall occurring by late Sunday. After day 3, Henri is forecast to eject northeastward across the Gulf of Maine. The ongoing northerly shear is expected to decrease later today, and the global models show a favorable upper-level wind pattern developing over the storm later today through the weekend. These more conducive atmospheric conditions combined with the warm Gulf Stream waters should allow Henri to strengthen to a hurricane tonight or early Saturday with additional intensification expected into Saturday night. By early Sunday, however, Henri is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream, and that should end its opportunity for strengthening. Although steady to rapid weakening is forecast while Henri moves over cooler waters south of New England, it will likely still be at or very near hurricane intensity when it reaches the coast. Post-tropical transition is forecast to occur in 3 to 4 days, and the new forecast shows Henri dissipated by day 5, in agreement with most of the global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovewellHemp Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 53 minutes ago, wx_observer said: By the time you have a guarantee it will be too late. IMO, the real questions to ask yourself are: what is your crop worth, how much of your crop could potentially be saved by doing this, and how much up the shitter you are if you lose it all. All good considerations. We are currently purchasing stakes and preparing for the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Exactly People compare every storm to a past storm Sandy was a monster storm which phased with an incoming trough . This will still pack some punch but nothing like Sandy . It's tough to make comparison to future storms. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 i'll be seeing a few down pours and a gusty breeze or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovewellHemp Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: No guarantees but if you give some edibles I can predict your winds tomorrow at noon for Sunday lol. You probably gust to 50 though. Very close to the ocean. But if you are behind the hills by the golf course less but down by the turf fields more. Lol! We unfortunately don't produce those types of edibles. We are in a well protected area by the golf courses and usually have minimal wind relative to the area, but our ground is very soft with all of the rain we've had and the soil is not holding the plants as well as we'd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, NeonPeon said: Gravity waves are fun, but the center still isn't the center, or close to it, thankfully. All that stuff is southeast. Certainly true that it's not yet aligned. But the center is under the edge of the convection and even though convective bursts don't last forever, it should help the system align. Shear is definitely lessened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 When a storm is threatening I like to watch the 70’s classic “When Havoc Strikes” on YouTube. Puts one in the mood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Like a bomb of convection went off last hour around 30N / 73.5 And spread out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Look let's put the Sandy BS away please. Sandy size Sandy currently has hurricane-force winds extending up to 175 miles (280 kilometers) from its center, and tropical storm-force winds out to 520 miles (835 km), according to the NHC. Henri at max FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.3N 71.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 95SW 60NW. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said: When a storm is threatening I like to watch the 70’s classic “When Havoc Strikes” on YouTube. Puts one in the mood Or the movie “Condominium” lol… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now