Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Recon is going through some of the convection so keep that in mind, but Henri looks robust. Small area with 55-62kt FL winds and unflagged 58-59kt SFMR. I sort of agree ... But, it would look more fairly "robust" imh, if it did not appear like a comet due to shear. I've seen Caribbean menaces on satellite with insidious inky black to pink vomit tops spread out over apocalyptic spans ... Plane gets in there, 45 kts, mostly in the N side or something. I mean those examples don't necessitate a diagnosis now, no. Lol.. Point is, let us not beguile for these satellite cinemas... They to often lie. That said, what I do agree or nod to that, is the aspect longevity in the face of hostile incurring force of stress. Whether one looks at a loop from 36 hours ago or now, they couldn't really tell them apart. It's been exceptionally stable in it's ability to hold in there ... 65 or 70 mph and 996-like pressure well, regardless of tilted chimney and appearing like seaweed wrapping backward around a tide current. That is kind of a 'robustness' in its own right, really... But this also leaps an anecdotal sort of observation to mind. It's been discussed in all ranks. It's the notion that systems that 'weather' ( pun that has no choice but said... Now that's an interesting pun ) hostility and then encounter favorable environments later on, tend to respond and flower and go nuts more proficiently ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Wow, last few frames convection really started pushing north over the LLC. May be all systems go at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: The hook west still has a small wind field. It's not the ET transition quite yet. Also, most models are minimal cat 1. Yup ...add that to dizzying array of components to this thing. Is the timing of the ET even right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Sn0waddict said: Was this at least a slight trend towards the global? Idk just trying to think of something positive here . NAM definitely shifted it's track E. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Tip of LI in in for a wallop. Yeah they would get hammered very hard. Would be pretty ugly there. I would think on this solution a good part of CT could be looking at 40-50 mph gusts and 60-70 mph along the shoreline. Then we introduce the rain/flooding. Thankfully this weakens quickly but any convective bands are going to locally enhance damaging winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandySurvivor Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That UKMET solution from last 0z last night. That appears would be far worse than Sandy to me. 19 hours ago, SandySurvivor said: I expect impacts of worse than Sandy but not as severe as the 1938 storm Good to see my estimate of the storm impact is gaining traction now among the meteorology community. 3 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, SandySurvivor said: Good to see my estimate of the storm impact is gaining traction now among the meteorology community. Yuge impact coming for the Jersey Shore. Post pics. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Huh it actually moves it due north. Maybe even slightly east last minute. Landfall near New London? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 very impressive on the ir loop over the last few hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 He is almost at 74W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Pretty potent right front quadrant on the NAM. 925mb winds 50-60kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Latest SREF low centers at 12z Sunday: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_Spaghetti_Low_Centers__ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: NAM definitely shifted it's track E. Nam is too weak with it which has major implications with how it interacts with trough to the west. This is why models showing a stronger storm are further west. However if Henri doesn't get stronger than a 75-80mph hurricane then I'd buy it. C/E LI into CT still seem the most likely to me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said: Good to see my estimate of the storm impact is gaining traction now among the meteorology community. You five posted yet? Should be 7 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Kev getting the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 57 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What happened in Clinton, MA yesterday may just be a warm up....one aspect that will be pretty prevalent IMO is tornado risk, and its being glossed over. Will and I were discussing that last night, AGREED... Folks'll need to come down off the 'we may not get the direct goods' disappointment first, but the old adage of not focusing on the exact position comes into play. A compromised track that goes NW or NNW through say ISP-HFD as a rought axis, probably sends E0F .. E1F tornado swarm over all of RI and central/E Ma and southern NH. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3km NAM continues to go into western Long Island. hurricane force gusts into SW CT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Kev getting the eye. He may even be able to go out for a quick run as the eye moves overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: 3km NAM continues to go into western Long Island. hurricane force gusts into SW CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 No one should be posting the 3k lol 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 it's so funny reading through some of the pages everyone from New Jersey to Cape Cod is getting the eye lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Poor orbital sander job. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawdogGRNJ Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 37 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We did. High astro tides 11 feet at Boston Ahh, missed it in the flurry. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandySurvivor Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: You five posted yet? Should be I am one of the most skilled tropical forecasters on this board. I was ringing alarm bells about hurricane conditions in SNE and RFQ impacts well before anyone else on this board. You have to give credit where it is due. I shouldn't be five posted just because I have skill in forecasting these events. 7 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said: I am one of the most skilled tropical forecasters on this board. I was ringing alarm bells about hurricane conditions in SNE and RFQ impacts well before anyone else on this board. You have to give credit where it is due. I shouldn't be five posted just because I have skill in forecasting these events. Wussup Akeem 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Been out of the loop/not watching weather much of late, until I heard hurricane watches up for CT this morning. Definitely was a surprise due to not paying attention. What happened to Jimmy? Please don’t tell me he passed away? Ahh dam I hope that’s not the case??? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 38 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Tropical caveats for the NAM apply Heh... right - sure they do. Until it shows an ISP to EEN track at 920 mb, then, '...There are circumstances where this guidance can be trusted though' lol... J/k... There are in fact circumstances where it can be trust ... though tropics and interacting tropical phenomenon with the westerly complexity is not one of those circumstances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 17 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Wow, last few frames convection really started pushing north over the LLC. May be all systems go at this point Mind sharing website you're using to track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 1 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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