weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Agree This was 6z the shifts west on a run-to-run basis have been pretty striking. Perhaps we do see a "correction east" but given the size of the westward shifts...we may not be done. I would think we would want to start seeing very little shifts west or pretty much standing pat just before ticks east occur 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 The hook west still has a small wind field. It's not the ET transition quite yet. Also, most models are minimal cat 1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 20, 2021 Author Share Posted August 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: At least there are no more cat 2’s or above I am really surprised that the models are not bullish. Gulf Stream and no strong wind shear yet not a deep storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Seeing more 60-64kt FL winds on the east side of Henri. Recon should be turning for a NE to SW pass shortly. do you think they issue a special advisory or an update and upgrade to a hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Seeing more 60-64kt FL winds on the east side of Henri. Recon should be turning for a NE to SW pass shortly. A few indications that there is a bit less tilting now than on that 6z microwave pass seems this will have a shot by this evening for take off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The hook west still has a small wind field. It's not the ET transition quite yet. Also, most models are minimal cat 1. How well will hurricane models resolve this? I would think the globals showing this evolution more reliable than a tropical model that simply shows a more westward track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Storm is getting really close to 74W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, jbenedet said: How well will hurricane models resolve this? I would think the globals showing this evolution more reliable than a tropical model that simply shows a more westward track. I don't really see a big Et transition on any guidance though. It just sort of gets tugged NW and then rapidly weakens. Wind fields still tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Also we judge hurricane category by wind speed—which doesn’t directly translate to surface pressure falls (min pressure) IF the radius is expanding. The forecast model for intensity based on wind speed doesn’t tell us nearly enough for a TC at 40N 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 I think eastern tip of LI to buzzards bay will be the red zone for this one. The euro and gfs both have this and the hurricane models as well. I think we get some more ticks west today then corrections back east on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 EPS into ern LI and into CT. LBSW as Ray says. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Anyone educated have guesstimates on the intensity ceiling for this by Saturday eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: EPS into ern LI and into CT. LBSW as Ray says. we screwed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, weatherwiz said: we screwed Congrats. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Congrats. If we can't get EML's may as well do hurricanes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS into ern LI and into CT. LBSW as Ray says. Future tracks of the snowstorms this winter? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 no watches or warnings here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: the shifts west on a run-to-run basis have been pretty striking. Perhaps we do see a "correction east" but given the size of the westward shifts...we may not be done. I would think we would want to start seeing very little shifts west or pretty much standing pat just before ticks east occur Gefs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Bingo! I do remember you pointing that out. If you have a fast moving system...well these cooler waters won't do much for weakening b/c there isn't time. In this instance it may do a quite a bit of damage but if there is some interaction with that ulvl low and there is just enough ulvl divergence perhaps it helps to offset some of the weakening by the cooler waters. The wind potential still scares me a bit b/c people may see 30-40 mph and go meh but that's going to cause some issues...obviously nothing over the top crazy Agree, there may be a balancing act here because although the SSTs and upwelling will promote weakening, the upper level divergence and lack of shear could allow for more steady state or gradual weakening than currently anticipated. We also don't know for sure how fast this will be moving or slowing up toward our latitude. All those things can make a tangible difference. The other thing is even though the wind field will be smaller, I do think some higher end winds (50-60 gusts) will be possible inland depending on distance to center. With saturated soils and fully leafed trees it won't take much to cause significant issues. 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: do you think they issue a special advisory or an update and upgrade to a hurricane? Not right now. There's not enough evidence of a hurricane yet IMO. 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: A few indications that there is a bit less tilting now than on that 6z microwave pass seems this will have a shot by this evening for take off If it can develop a good inner core today it could really take off as shear drops and it gets ventilated even better than it already is. Intensity can really throw curveballs. Still think strong TS/low end cat 1 is most likely, but if Henri can rapidly intensify and become a strong hurricane further south, we might need to elevate the ceiling a little. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Rain. Lots of it. Seriously concerned about the freshwater flooding in E CT and RI and SE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't really see a big Et transition on any guidance though. It just sort of gets tugged NW and then rapidly weakens. Wind fields still tight. Put on your New England climo hat. i think some form of hybridization occurs but “how much”? Mostly tropical, slightly ET? 50/50? My guess is more the former. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: we screwed I guess us western folk are going to try and catch up to the eastern folk in regards to rainfall, sounds fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Rain. Lots of it. Seriously concerned about the freshwater flooding in E CT and RI and SE Mass. That will be more western LI into western CT and Berks now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Rain. Lots of it. Seriously concerned about the freshwater flooding in E CT and RI and SE Mass. that is the biggest risk up there imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Hard to believe we're 30 years since last landfalling Hurricane in New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Still finding it south of the forecast points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Hard to believe we're 30 years since last landfalling Hurricane in New England. Still a chance it holds. LOL. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I think we touched on that. Both the ridge to the east and trough to the west are not typical for us to get canes. So you don’t have that massive pressure gradient like in previous storms. So it’s sort of on its own as far as analogs. I think that is why wind field appears much tighter compared to other storms in the past. Hey Scott... I know you in particular have been hitting the pressure gradient or lack thereof hard with respect to the apparent confined / non-expanding wind field as Henri comes north into SNE. That appears to be the case and it will be interesting to see if that is being correctly model, or there ends up being a bit more expansive than currently shown. The 925 wind field trends certainly suggest the lack of a tight gradient on its eastern flank will decrease the size of the damaging wind threat east of the track. My comment was more related to just frequent comments about model track shifts with only little note of the surrounding large-scale pattern trends. But I have noted your correct assessment of the gradient issue and its relationship to apparent less than normal wind expansion. Certainly not a classic New England hurricane pattern with a wide open south to north flow channel sucking a storm into SNE. More of a baby Sandy look. I'm not on here all that frequently and likely missed others commenting about the pattern trends & gradient issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 14 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I am really surprised that the models are not bullish. Gulf Stream and no strong wind shear yet not a deep storm. the last 10 years or so we’ve seen plenty of storms near where Henri was with belief they’d intensify and they never did. Sandy was one example of that. The problem when you have a short window like this is the system has to be fairly well organized to start off with and it really is not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That will be more western LI into western CT and Berks now. No one lives there so it’s all good. Seriously you are prob right about those areas. I am still thinking it ticks east a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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