ineedsnow Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 On 8/19/2021 at 10:13 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Someone is going to see half a foot of rain Expand Double maybe triple that if it stalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 On 8/19/2021 at 10:15 PM, ineedsnow said: Double maybe triple that if it stalls. Expand Eh… I’ll sell a foot of rain. Even if it stalls 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 On 8/19/2021 at 10:15 PM, ineedsnow said: Double maybe triple that if it stalls. Expand I wouldn’t go that far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 On 8/19/2021 at 10:13 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Someone is going to see half a foot of rain Expand I'll take the over 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Easily 5-10 of rain if not 20" verbatim 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Big time to the 12”+ rain crowd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 On 8/19/2021 at 10:12 PM, DotRat_Wx said: I feel really confident about flooding and heavy rain, Winds could be meh, but the flooding could be just terrible. Intensity over the next 24h is the big q mark. Expand Surge should be quite bad. You better hope it doesn't blow up tomorrow & Saturday. Models are always off on intensity (usually too weak). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 On 8/19/2021 at 10:17 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Big time to the 12”+ rain crowd Expand with the slow movement and risk of a stall, def in play 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 On 8/19/2021 at 10:17 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Big time to the 12”+ rain crowd Expand You do realize fast systems usually give a good amount of rain... if this stalls all bets are off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 On 8/19/2021 at 10:14 PM, ineedsnow said: Can't really look at those maps with these.. usually way underdone with tropical systems Expand Yes tropical rainfall is of the "warm rain" variety not the "cold rain" we typically think of in most cases. I have no idea if these numerical models take into account the differing cloud physics and precip processes that occur, so I can't speak to that. But regardless, yes it's why radar has a hard time at picking up on proper dbZ values in tropical systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Posting because this was actually alluded to a bit this morning and we did see some hints of a possible downshear reformation that looked to be ongoing from recon. Not saying RI is happening for those lurking, but rather highlighting a possible reason we see intensification once this starts paralleling the coast. Xiaomin is an atmospheric scientist for HRD (Hurricane Research Division) at NOAA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 19, 2021 Author Share Posted August 19, 2021 Sunday midday would be landfall. Tropical storm/hurricane/tropical storm watches issued 48 hours in advance so I would expect watches to be issued tomorrow on the 11am advisory unless something changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Thinking we see some #EXTREME coastal erosion and inland flooding from this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 On 8/19/2021 at 9:18 PM, Modfan2 said: I think goal post is CT/RI line to the Cape with more hydro related concerns vs wind. However it won’t take much wind to take down some tree after today. Interesting to track and easily could go out to sea Expand I’ll be honest .. I think it’s a low chsnce we can hook it back into C CT. I can see a hook over E LI to GON then a turn NNE. Right now .. my feeling is LF E tip LI into RI . To me the biggest question is .. how strong is it at that point? That’s just how I interpret it now . Low confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 On 8/19/2021 at 10:16 PM, Sn0waddict said: I wouldn’t go that far.. Expand On 8/19/2021 at 10:16 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Eh… I’ll sell a foot of rain. Even if it stalls Expand On 8/19/2021 at 10:15 PM, ineedsnow said: Double maybe triple that if it stalls. Expand I guarantee you someone sees over a foot with that track. West Hartford got 5" of rain today alone. It would rain much longer than today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuraVida Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 lotta members still west and stronger 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Max rainfall amounts would absolutely approach or exceed a foot in a stalled or slow movement scenario 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 So any notable historic storms that slowed or stalled like some of these model runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 On 8/19/2021 at 10:25 PM, weatherwiz said: Max rainfall amounts would absolutely approach or exceed a foot in a stalled or slow movement scenario Expand I would think it would Be very isolated if it did occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 On 8/19/2021 at 10:29 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I would think it would Be very isolated if it did occur Expand Nope On 8/19/2021 at 10:25 PM, weatherwiz said: Max rainfall amounts would absolutely approach or exceed a foot in a stalled or slow movement scenario Expand Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 The last couple of frames with Henri is getting that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 On 8/19/2021 at 10:22 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I’ll be honest .. I think it’s a low chsnce we can hook it back into C CT. I can see a hook over E LI to GON then a turn NNE. Right now .. my feeling is LF E tip LI into RI . To me the biggest question is .. how strong is it at that point? That’s just how I interpret it now . Low confidence Expand 80-90mph at best. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 I'll also sell a foot of rain. I'd have to see to believe that around these parts for sure. If it should happen I'll give props to folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 On 8/19/2021 at 10:32 PM, ineedsnow said: The last couple of frames with Henri is getting that look Expand Definitely intensifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 On 8/19/2021 at 10:29 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I would think it would Be very isolated if it did occur Expand I don't think it would be isolated...probably be within some sort of narrow swath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 On 8/19/2021 at 10:32 PM, ineedsnow said: The last couple of frames with Henri is getting that look Expand It has held up very well against the shear today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 On 8/19/2021 at 10:25 PM, weatherwiz said: Max rainfall amounts would absolutely approach or exceed a foot in a stalled or slow movement scenario Expand And today didn’t help matters for many. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 On 8/19/2021 at 10:33 PM, weatherwiz said: I don't think it would be isolated...probably be within some sort of narrow swath Expand This. Tropical is a lot different from the storms we usually see. In the right setup, you can get huge totals in a broad area, even from a weak or decaying system. We've actually seen a lot of these in recent years in the US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 On 8/19/2021 at 10:32 PM, radarman said: I'll also sell a foot of rain. I'd have to see to believe that around these parts for sure. If it should happen I'll give props to folks. Expand A quick moving tropical storm drops swaths of 6" so.. One that pours for a straight day would easily achieve those higher totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Remember that Irene dropped 3-7" of rain across much of New England and caused tremendous problems in many places, you don't need Harvey levels of rain to destroy things. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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