Cyclone-68 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Nova Scotia better not steal this one too or I’ll renounce my Canadian heritage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Here I’ll post . Many more members stronger and west So instead of coming closer to agreement ~3 days out, the EPS and GFES basically switch places. Wonderful! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hahaha Bastardi give me a break. The same guy posting about the 3K NAM showing Fred getting down to 956mb before making landfall on the FL panhandle. Even to my amateur eyes it was obvious connective feedback. Why’s he so obsessed with using the NAM for tropical systems? For the clicks and likes? I trust not a single word out of that mans mouth at this point. Don’t care how much experience he has. 3 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 It looks like circulation is displaced but cloud tops cooling and shooting up near center.. Might be getting ready to achieve hurricane status by 11p? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said: Hahaha Bastardi give me a break. The same guy posting about the 3K NAM showing Fred getting down to 956mb before making landfall on the FL panhandle. Even to my amateur eyes it was obvious connective feedback. Why’s he so obsessed with using the NAM for tropical systems? For the clicks and likes? I trust not a single word out of that mans mouth at this point. Don’t care how much experience he has. All about the clicks and views. A 927mb looking buzzsaw on the 3km will get peoples' attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 WPC: Detailed Summary:Diagnosing Henri this afternoon, the storm is feeling the effects of northerly wind sheardisplacing the storm's most intense convection just south of the low level circulation center. Thisbout of vertical wind shear will keep the storm from intensifying through the evening hours, butthe storm's westerly movement will soon lead it into an area of diminishing wind shear on Friday.At the same time, an upper level trough over the east-central U.S. will aid in the development of ahealthier poleward outflow channel that will continue into the day on Saturday. Combined with thestorm remaining over very warm water, Henri is forecast to intensify on Friday and continue to doso into Saturday. Henri's track remains highly dependent upon how intense the storm is, the amountof "tugging" it feels from the upper trough over the Mid-Atlantic, and the strength/position of theridge over New England and Quebec. Most guidance has come into a little more agreement on the stormslowing down on Sunday, weakening as it tracks over cooler waters, and coming close to a pivotanywhere from just east of the Massachusetts Capes to as far west as Long Island. How strong Henrican become over the next 24-48 hours will play a critical role in its resulting track and what typeof hazards it produces over New England.Speaking of hazards, ensemble guidance coming into a little better agreement on a track closer tothe Massachusetts Capes increases the odds of seeing significant coastal impacts to the region.Most notable hazards along the southern New England coast would include battering surf, resultingcoastal flooding and beach erosion, tropical storm force winds, and torrential rainfall. Batteringswells from Long Island to northeast Massachusetts are also likely until Henri substantiallyweakens Monday into Tuesday. Inland flooding (both flash flooding and river/stream flooding) wouldbecome increasingly problematic should Henri track farther west or more inland, especiallyfollowing the heavy rainfall from the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred in recent days. However, thesituation and forecast track remains fluid. Henri could still stay further offshore and reducepotential impacts such as high winds and heavy rain, resulting in mainly coastal impacts due tohighs surf. The opposite could also be true; a more westerly track would lead to increased interiorflooding potential and more detrimental impacts to more populated areas north and west of I-95. Insummary, residents in the Northeast should keep a close eye on the latest forecast information fromthe National Hurricane Center in to the upcoming weekend, have a plan of action ready, and followthe advice of local officials. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said: It looks like circulation is displaced but cloud tops cooling and shooting up near center.. Might be getting ready to achieve hurricane status by 11p? It will be interesting to see what happens during the regular convection blowup at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Nova Scotia better not steal this one too or I’ll renounce my Canadian heritage start looking for a new heritage 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said: Hahaha Bastardi give me a break. The same guy posting about the 3K NAM showing Fred getting down to 956mb before making landfall on the FL panhandle. Even to my amateur eyes it was obvious connective feedback. Why’s he so obsessed with using the NAM for tropical systems? For the clicks and likes? I trust not a single word out of that mans mouth at this point. Don’t care how much experience he has. he's the Alex Jones of weather 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Wonder if the 5pm NHC track stays the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, WeatherHappens said: he's the Alex Jones of weather 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandySurvivor Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said: Not even close to either...it’ll be bad over a much more localized area than Sandy. For >80% of the northeast it’ll be NBD. increasing chance ms someone sees an RFQ hit from CT/RI border north and east from there. Wouldn’t be surprised to see winds over 100mph from Providence thru Boston. 1 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, SandySurvivor said: increasing chance ms someone sees an RFQ hit from CT/RI border north and east from there. Wouldn’t be surprised to see winds over 100mph from Providence thru Boston. this is a joke,right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Buy the hook folks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandySurvivor Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, WeatherHappens said: this is a joke,right? I thought Sandy was a joke until it hit 1 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said: increasing chance ms someone sees an RFQ hit from CT/RI border north and east from there. Wouldn’t be surprised to see winds over 100mph from Providence thru Boston. Not even 100 but hurricane force certainly possible in coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandySurvivor Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Not even 100 but hurricane force certainly possible in coastal areas. If I lived on the coast I would get out now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 I don't believe the GEFS shown on Tropical Tidbits has the latest data ingestion from the recon flight. I'm interested to see the 0z model suite with all that data ingested... It's definitely odd that EPS is going in one direction and GEFS is going in the other... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Way to derail the thread. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 when do we get a floater on this that updates every minute? those 5 minute IR updates are unacceptable!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said: If I lived on the coast I would get out now. We need a tag and 5PPD. 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: when do we get a floater on this that updates every minute? those 5 minute IR updates are unacceptable!. Live feed from GOES-16 streamed into the home of every weenie or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 12 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said: If I lived on the coast I would get out now. i hope you're just trolling....and not very good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Icon with a hard hook left into NE and stalls a bit between RI and eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 18z ICON is just ugly. Stronger and looks to stall and rake SE Mass and RI coastline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Buy the hook folks I think goal post is CT/RI line to the Cape with more hydro related concerns vs wind. However it won’t take much wind to take down some tree after today. Interesting to track and easily could go out to sea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: I think goal post is CT/RI to Cape with more hydro related concerns vs wind. However it won’t take much wind to take down some tree after today. Interesting to track and easily could go out to see. TBH, I do not see anyway for this to escape. The NAO is plummeting, allowing the HP to flex West. The Northern and Southern HP are already connecting. I just do not see this being able to escape. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, USCG RS said: TBH, I do not see anyway for this to escape. The NAO is plummeting, allowing the HP to flex West. The Northern and Southern HP are already connecting. I just do not see this being able to escape. It does seem unlikely to me that it would escape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 How much moisture will Henri have, would think the slow movement could be very problematic re: flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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