STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not affecting my mood tho - different agenda the man has temperament of a buddhist monk and The incite of Freud 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 The UKIE does have several notable big wins on tropicals. Isabel in 03 and Irma in 17 are two where it was seemingly out to lunch at 72-84 and ended up being right so it definitely can’t be tossed 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 25 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Yeah Euro HR 78 still hooks it west towards the cape. Much weaker though, we've had stronger nor'easters than that... Of course, it's New England. For areal damage the October 2017 storm beats anything since Bob and it's not really close. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, tamarack said: Of course, it's New England. For areal damage the October 2017 storm beats anything since Bob and it's not really close. We had one in 2019 too. I can't get excited until this thing gets its act together. That's my view. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 If this slows near the Cape, big hydro issues just to the west of track. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We had one in 2019 too. I can't get excited until this thing gets its act together. That's my view. I remember that one. It was the final field day of our sustainability audit and I had to remove a large dead fir from our road to get in on the fun. When I crouched down to hook the tow strap to the tree, a gust whipped my rain jacket up over my head and the RA+ did its thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 I'm guessing recon data will be integrated in the 0z suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If this slows near the Cape, big hydro issues just to the west of track. Especially with how wet this past week and summer has been. When was the last time we had a TC that had a stall like that wasn't just hauling it to the N/NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Recon turning and heading toward a NE to SW pass. I must say it is more organized than I thought it would be. Winds don't really matter here, it's about how organized the center is and whether there is an inner core. So far, the answer to that seems to be yes, which makes it more likely to quickly reorganize and intensify when shear decreases. On this pass it'll also be interesting to see if there's a westward heading of the center or a continued south of due west motion. The latter would imply that it remains deep enough to verify further west. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: another noticeable jog west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Enough of this shear, time to turn the engine on and see what we have here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What if it takes Ukie track and strength? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If this slows near the Cape, big hydro issues just to the west of track. I know what you mean but that's lol - like, it's out in the ocean: 'bit of a hyrdo concern over the western side' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 I could be misreading the 12z GFS ensembles, but Henri doesn't look very strong, and looks to be not making a landfall... going by 850mb height/wind chart on Pivotal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandySurvivor Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 we have everything packed and ready to evacuate I expect impacts of worse than Sandy but not as severe as the 1938 storm 2 1 1 3 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, SandySurvivor said: we have everything packed and ready to evacuate I expect impacts of worse than Sandy but not as severe as the 1938 storm Not even close to either...it’ll be bad over a much more localized area than Sandy. For >80% of the northeast it’ll be NBD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, SandySurvivor said: we have everything packed and ready to evacuate I expect impacts of worse than Sandy but not as severe as the 1938 storm stay safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said: we have everything packed and ready to evacuate I expect impacts of worse than Sandy but not as severe as the 1938 storm Double weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Note how all of those have WNW movement immediately.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Pretty epic bust potential in either direction for this. I could buy a weak, sheared TS crossing hundreds of miles offshore, a cat 2 landfall in SE NE, or anything in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Note how all of those have WNW movement immediately.... Exactly. Almost as if the next 24 hrs will determine the final outcome. Latest coordinates appear like the south/west camp is winning...at least so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Note how all of those have WNW movement immediately.... I noticed that too. That wnw direction hasn’t begun yet. I feel like the later that happens that there would be more west adjustments. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Looks like the pressure is dropping. Here's the latest center dropsonde. Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 19:20ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Name: HenriStorm Number: 08 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 14 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 19Z on the 19th day of the monthHighest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 925mbCoordinates: 29.6N 71.1WLocation: 419 statute miles (674 km) to the WSW (244°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (U.K.).Marsden Square: 080 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -20m (-66 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 998mb (29.47 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 25.2°C (77°F) 170° (from the S) 18 knots (21 mph) 925mb 667m (2,188 ft) 23.0°C (73.4°F) 22.6°C (73°F) 170° (from the S) 22 knots (25 mph) 850mb 1,408m (4,619 ft) 23.0°C (73.4°F) About 18°C (64°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level Information About Radiosonde:- Launch Time: 19:05Z- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.Lowest altitude where wind was reported:- Location: 29.64N 71.14W- Time: 19:07:16ZMean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 170° (from the S)- Wind Speed: 23 knots (26 mph)Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 180° (from the S)- Wind Speed: 18 knots (21 mph)- Depth of Sounding: From 844mb to 997mbAverage Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:- Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet)- Wind Direction: 170° (from the S)- Wind Speed: 21 knots (24 mph)Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 998mb (Surface) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 25.2°C (77°F) 916mb 22.6°C (72.7°F) 22.1°C (72°F) 896mb 24.0°C (75.2°F) 19.1°C (66°F) 850mb 23.0°C (73.4°F) About 18°C (64°F) Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 998mb (Surface) 170° (from the S) 18 knots (21 mph) 995mb 170° (from the S) 21 knots (24 mph) 947mb 170° (from the S) 24 knots (28 mph) 918mb 170° (from the S) 22 knots (25 mph) 889mb 200° (from the SSW) 18 knots (21 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, Pluffmud said: I noticed that too. That wnw direction hasn’t begun yet. I feel like the later that happens that there would be more west adjustments. The second recon pass does seem to be a bit north of the first one, though tropical storms don't move in a straight line to it's not enough to determine a trend. First pass had the center at 29.34 n and second at 29.38 n. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, Pluffmud said: I noticed that too. That wnw direction hasn’t begun yet. I feel like the later that happens that there would be more west adjustments. Probably, but we may also see a sharper veer to the east than forecast upon approach, which is often the case and could negate some of that.....unless it really gets captured. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Probably, but we may also see a sharper veer to the east than forecast upon approach, which could negate some of that.....unless it really gets captured. Or it takes its time turning north, but by then the ULL almost moves it more NE because it does not have enough latitude for the ULL to dig down and tug it to the NNW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Probably, but we may also see a sharper veer to the east than forecast upon approach, which could negate some of that.....unless it really gets captured. Lol,... I read this recent exchange snickering because 'Nope, doesn't mean you get to have a hurricane' No but I was thinking it'll end up in the same place, just taking a broader parabolic motion as thought it was a course chosen for greatest regret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now