CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: One near CT had debris earlier That was more legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Should have a better idea once Henri gets out of its sheared environment as that's whats hindering its development to where this will be tracking, That looks to improve over the next 24-36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Revere MA the OKC of eastern MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 It's starting to bifurcate already as you can see into the southern camp of Euro ECNs. I am markedly more concerned than I was this morning it looked like shear would win out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 The interior flooding in this could be really really bad it dumps in these same areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Holy hell the flooding would be epic if this verified. That is too low —by like half—in the UKie scenario. Lol It meanders/crawls north for 24 hrs after landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: I'm interested in seeing if Henri has a symmetrical, concentrated wind profile, or one that is shallow with multiple wind maxima. Ya let’s see what’s under the hood 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 My gut says Martha's Vineyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 There's no way to tell what's an outlier and what isn't an outlier right now 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: My gut says Martha's Vineyard I see you have a very unruly gut. May want to get that checked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Difflock Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 how reliable is the UKMET?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Roughly today’s goalposts are gfs to the East and crazy uncle to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Difflock said: how reliable is the UKMET?? Very 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Difflock said: how reliable is the UKMET?? It's usually on the sauce. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 22 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: The most curious thing is UKie showing this intensity with a slowdown over cool water. There’s def an UL phasing element to this, unlike other major guidance. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Ukmet is a very competent agency and produces very good weather forecasts. Adjust expectations accordingly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, jbenedet said: The most curious thing is UKie showing this intensity with a slowdown over cool water. There’s def an UL phasing element to this, unlike other major guidance. The ulvl low has seem to trend stronger on some models. Not a crazy ULJ but looks like a streak of 50-70 knots seems plausible. Orientation too would allow for some aided ulvl divergence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, Difflock said: how reliable is the UKMET?? Best used for sniffing out alternative solutions IMO, which means it's definitely way off base sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's usually on the sauce. One of the 3 best global models for TC's. I was #2 for a few years, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, Difflock said: how reliable is the UKMET?? OTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: One of the 3 best global models for TC's. I was #2 for a few years, right? Gfs scores dead last on TS. Dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 hour ago, WeatherHappens said: tropical systems always find a way to screw us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gfs scores dead last on TS. Dead FWIW, GFS did well with Elsa last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, David-LI said: FWIW, GFS did well with Elsa last month. It does good but in really hardcore borderline situations like this it falls apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gfs scores dead last on TS. Dead Yeah, trash right now. Need that aircraft sampling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The ulvl low has seem to trend stronger on some models. Not a crazy ULJ but looks like a streak of 50-70 knots seems plausible. Orientation too would allow for some aided ulvl divergence Strangest things tend to happen with significant -NAO blocking which we have. GFS too progressive. Ukie seems like a worst case based on climo. 12z Ukie/GFS 50/50 blend seems fair for a baseline case right now IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 12 minutes ago, Difflock said: how reliable is the UKMET?? Here’s the actual data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah, trash right now. Need that aircraft sampling When are they sending recon aircraft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 NWS is a very competent agency and produces very good weather forecasts. Adjust expectations accordingly. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, David-LI said: When are they sending recon aircraft? Today, but I haven't been tracking that closely. wxwatcher007 mentioned it earlier though In addition to the Air Force aircraft that flies through the storm, the NOAA Gulfstream IV jet will also be flying around Henri later today to help assess the environmental conditions and gather data for the numerical models. It is hoped that these data will help the models more accurately predict the future track of the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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