Tropical Storm Henri

[tiger_deF]

It's worth pointing out that the SST's off the coast are running 2-3+ degrees Celsius above normal, which could potentially be lifting the relative latitude where a cyclone is able to maintain tropical characteristics.

[CoastalWx]

MAN EPS like stalls it practically over the Cape area.

[JB_Wchstr]

8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Zzzz…. Probably gusts to 40 here and some rain.

40? That’s generous 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SnowEMass said:

40? That’s generous 

He does this with every event. Snow, thunder...you name it.

[WeatherHappens]

I'm keeping my expectations low

[40/70 Benchmark]

On the one hand...we all know to err on the conservative side in relation to tropical impacts across the northeast, as systems often end up with less longitude than originally forecast....however, another important consideration is that these "stall and meander scenarios" are also often exaggerated among guidance...especially with respect to a tropical entity in the mid latitudes. Thus it is a very precarious position to have the idea of a less destructive tropical impact dependent upon the whole "slow to a haul upon approach to New England" scenario, which is quite the anomaly in and of itself. It straddles the precipice of hypocrisy to summarily dismiss the notion of a destructive landfall in New England due to the assumption that this thing will grind to halt at 41* latitude.

Lots to consider over the next day as I ponder First Call...I am conflicted.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

He does this with every event. Snow, thunder...you name it.

He's the ant-Rev

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Zzzz…. Probably gusts to 40 here and some rain.

This looks like a 970ish 980ish storm up there

[Chrisrotary12]

Can’t wait for this thing to make the perfect “blizzard” loop south of the islands, not make landfall and give us just some high surf and light rain.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

MAN EPS like stalls it practically over the Cape area.

Consider the impact of a system that grinds to a halt POST landfall...worst case.

[PowderBeard]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

On the one hand...we all know to err on the conservative side in relation to tropical impacts across the northeast, as systems often end up with less longitude than originally forecast....however, another important consideration is that these "stall and meander scenarios" are also often exaggerated among guidance...especially with respect to a tropical entity in the mid latitudes. Thus it is a very precarious position to have the idea of a less destructive tropical impact dependent upon the whole "slow to a haul upon approach to New England" scenario, which is quite the anomaly in and of itself. It straddles the precipice of hypocrisy to summarily dismiss the notion of a destructive landfall in New England due to the assumption that this thing will grind to halt at 41* latitude.

Lots to consider over the next day as I ponder First Call.

[MJO812]

Navgem

[Snowlover11]

congratulations on the blizzard

 

 

 

 

 

i mean cane bang.

[CoastalWx]

12z models like to hang near the Cape.

[SnoSki14]

System looks decent for being in such a heavily sheared environment.

I'd be preparing if I lived in eastern NE. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 2+ hurricane prior to landfall.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

12z models like to hang near the Cape.

Decent shift west

I want it up my fanny 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

On the one hand...we all know to err on the conservative side in relation to tropical impacts across the northeast, as systems often end up with less longitude than originally forecast....however, another important consideration is that these "stall and meander scenarios" are also often exaggerated among guidance...especially with respect to a tropical entity in the mid latitudes. Thus it is a very precarious position to have the idea of a less destructive tropical impact dependent upon the whole "slow to a haul upon approach to New England" scenario, which is quite the anomaly in and of itself. It straddles the precipice of hypocrisy to summarily dismiss the notion of a destructive landfall in New England due to the assumption that this thing will grind to halt at 41* latitude.

Lots to consider over the next day as I ponder First Call...I am conflicted.

Almost leads me to believe  models may shift/ move off this idea for at least our area ..seems threading the needle with regard to timing of a Transitory block and positioning of a trough to our west . Next 24 hours (as usual) are huge for models as Those features come into better focus 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Almost leads me to believe  models may shift/ move off this idea for at least our area ..seems threading the needle with regard to timing of a Transitory block and positioning of a trough to our west . 

Its probably mainly a higher impact for the cape if anyone in the end, and super soaker period for us.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its probably mainly a higher impact for the cape if anyone in the end, and super soaker period for us.

Oh ya . I have no real hope for winds in Nashua.  It’s a niche but my interest is almost purely in the swell and costal flooding aspect from RI to E ma and high end is on the table , not a lock but looks like some action 

[weatherwiz]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

12z models like to hang near the Cape.

Certainly a noticeable shift west towards the GEFS. Still a decent amount of spread though between the globals/hurricane models and GFS. What caves to which? 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Some of the EPS members that take this further west at lower latitudes (before the N turn) bring this N and NNW into central L.I

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Some of the EPS members that take this further west at lower latitudes (before the N turn) bring this N and NNW into central L.I

It seems to be losing a bit more latitude than forecast....

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Oh ya . I have no real hope for winds in Nashua.  It’s a niche but my interest is almost purely in the swell and costal flooding aspect from RI to E ma and high end is on the table , not a lock but looks like some action 

 

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Certainly a noticeable shift west towards the GEFS. Still a decent amount of spread though between the globals/hurricane models and GFS. What caves to which? 

My gut is saying this is bad news for the cape,  and a large nuisance, elsewhere.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It seems to be losing a bit more latitude than forecast....

I think that needs to be watched for a more prolonged w/ wsw motion . So far there are no ensembles that take it far enough WSW to miss the N turn from Ohio valley trough Friday , so I assume that idea is off the table and this is basically a lock to make it east of OBX and be somewhere well off Delmarva by Saturday evening 

[Newman]

Compared to 0z, I don't think you can definitively say the 6z EPS came west (at least compared to the base mean). But certainly more spread and more members that take it further west. The loop and stall is still evident on many of the members

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

My gut is saying this is bad news for the cape,  and a large nuisance, elsewhere.

I am with you in that boat. 

[SouthCoastMA]

That track is pretty bad for here..if we get NE winds. Serious erosion potential

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

My gut is saying this is bad news for the cape,  and a large nuisance, elsewhere.

Yup.  No where for storm to escape E.  Gonna rot for a day or 2 in the area.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

That track is pretty bad for here..if we get NE winds. Serious erosion potential

Erosion would be the least of your concerns in some of these solutions.

[Cyclone-68]

You have to figure if this stalls the rain amounts and flooding could be historic in places