78Blizzard Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I can see the northerly shear sort of smushing the NW portion of Henry . Last few frames He may have a bit of a battle next 18 hours Whoever ends up E of the center will have the worst of it, especially on the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 I'm bored feed me model runs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: I'm bored feed me model runs A little nammy to start you off sir .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: A little nammy to start you off sir .. NAM is stronger and farther west through hour 36... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 10 hours ago, Diggiebot said: It looks like a canal to RI mean with a stall and exit east type track I could totally see that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 51 minutes ago, Hoth said: I'm glad we got a chance to dry out the last few weeks. Probably some major flooding in the river valley with a bunch of those members. Me too. I'm not sure I buy the crawler solutions, but I definitely have some flooding concerns should this track closer to our neck of the woods, especially in eastern CT. 42 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I can see the northerly shear sort of smushing the NW portion of Henry . Last few frames He may have a bit of a battle next 18 hours It's running south of the kill zone, but yeah, the next 24 hours or so will be critical in determining the ceiling for Henri. If it can maintain some semblance of a core when it gets to the other side of the ridge and a more favorable environment, it bodes well for significant intensification. It's actually a bit impressive to me that it has held strong so far given the shear it has faced. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 41 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: I'm bored feed me model runs Best part of winter is the time change. If the euro started rolling at 2 I’d probably die of sleep deprivation. Probably came close to that last winter anyway lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Nam is way stronger so far than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Me too. I'm not sure I buy the crawler solutions, but I definitely have some flooding concerns should this track closer to our neck of the woods, especially in eastern CT. It's running south of the kill zone, but yeah, the next 24 hours or so will be critical in determining the ceiling for Henri. If it can maintain some semblance of a core when it gets to the other side of the ridge and a more favorable environment, it bodes well for significant intensification. It's actually a bit impressive to me that it has held strong so far given the shear it has faced. Environment wasn’t nearly as hostile earlier. This will be the true test (assuming I am reading the prior frames of the wind shear map correctly) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Ack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 One thing I noticed is that there is a stronger/more well-defined and better positioned 300mb and 250mb jet across the eastern Lakes on the NAM the past few cycles. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Environment wasn’t nearly as hostile earlier. This will be the true test (assuming I am reading the prior frames of the wind shear map correctly) Oh this is definitely more hostile, but 15-18kts of shear is nothing to sneeze at for a small developing system. *cough* Grace *cough* I may or may not have disdain for that TC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Headed right between the islands and over the mid cape it looks like? Could turn right in future frames tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, Diggiebot said: Headed right between the islands and over the mid cape it looks like? Could turn right in future frames tho. Need it more left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, Diggiebot said: Headed right between the islands and over the mid cape it looks like? Could turn right in future frames tho. It's the NAM at HR 84. Could be in Greenland or Louisiana next run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Need it more left The only thing you can really gather from the NAM at this range is that it looks like there's a good chance for it to strengthen significantly over the next 48 hours. After that it could be pure fiction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: 2 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: The only thing you can really gather from the NAM at this range is that it looks like there's a good chance for it to strengthen significantly over the next 48 hours. After that it could be pure fiction. Strengthening is key for the western solutions so def good to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 This is why you take the NAM with a grain of salt... or maybe a whole shaker... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Cravings. I wouldn't discount a period of RI and maybe a cat 4. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Very good discussion of the possibilities by the NHC tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 The awful NAVGEM is more useful than the 3k for tropical systems. It’s bombs out every storm into a mega storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Very strong wind shear over Henri right now. Gotta be nearly 30 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Gfs is way stronger and further southwest through 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 980 at hour 48 compared to 996 at hour 54 on 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Wow 972 at hour 54 994 on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Wow CAPE Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 I guess If I had to guess it would be cape cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 6-7" qpf for se MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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