Hoth Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 45 minutes ago, dryslot said: This will end up being Hurricane Mehnri up here outside of the coastal areas getting some high surf. Henri? More like Ennui. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 12z HWRF has a cat 3-4 about 300 mi south of the cape @ hr 90 but which then rapidly weakens before coming ashore in LI and CT. The HMON has a very weak TS or even a depression @hr 90. Quite a variance in those two hurricane models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: First calls 5 days out on a Hurricane. I mean wtf? We’ve got weenie first calls 5 days out. Who needs models or NHC? The first calls will keep us safe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’ve got weenie first calls 5 days out. Who needs models or NHC? The first calls will keep us safe The day 90 hrs became 5 days 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: 12z HWRF has a cat 3-4 about 300 mi south of the cape @ hr 90 but which then rapidly weakens before coming ashore in LI and CT. The HMON has a very weak TS or even a depression @hr 90. Quite a variance in those two hurricane models. 18z HMON is starting to come out. Already looks stronger so far than the 12z, which really isn’t that surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: The day 90 hrs became 5 days Why not start first calling snow fall amounts at 5 days this winter? You’ve got us all safe for cane Henri. Let’s do it in winter! Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Some subtle differences between the ulvl low between 12z/18z GFS. It actually looks a bit stronger this run but looks like maybe it just captures it a bit late (captures at a higher latitude this run)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why not start first calling snow fall amounts at 5 days this winter? You’ve got us all safe for cane Henri. Let’s do it in winter! Thanks! Not understanding but ok. Kind of a whole different Meteorological setup between snow amounts and a tropical system. Sorry I didn't say what you wanted to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Not really much upper level support to keep Henri strong once it crosses into cooler water. Not near the entrance region of a strong jet, at least not that I saw. Therefore, it would need to make a fast approach and I'm not seeing any indication that's on the table here. Could be a flooding threat though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Not understanding but ok. Kind of a whole different Meteorological setup between snow amounts and a tropical system. Sorry I didn't say what you wanted to hear. It was in response to your 18z gfs post which was directed at me. All options are on table. From NJ hit to OTS. Great thread here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It was in response to your 18z gfs post which was directed at me. All options are on table. From NJ hit to OTS Yup but I think Steve would say the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I’ll take 30G50 and 7” of rain. We pray. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Let’s see what a bit of increased N shear does to our friend Henry Over the next 30 hours or so . Then Friday Am looks favorable again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 The short-term strength of Henri will be crucial to the eventual track; will he continue to steadily intensify, or briefly weaken due to shear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 56 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: 12z HWRF has a cat 3-4 about 300 mi south of the cape @ hr 90 but which then rapidly weakens before coming ashore in LI and CT. The HMON has a very weak TS or even a depression @hr 90. Quite a variance in those two hurricane models. No consistency in these hurricane models. The 18z HMON now has a cat 1 @ hr 84 and is further northeast and will pass just E of ACK as a weaker TS. The 18z HWRF is now a much weaker system and is a strong TS @ hr 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 The social media hype train is running so fast by tomorrow night it will be another Snowicane of 1804. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, PowderBeard said: The social media hype train is running so fast by tomorrow night it will be another Snowicane of 1804. How much did tamarack measure in that one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: How much did tamarack measure in that one Even farther north in Maine, the snowstorm's effects remained disastrous; following its passage, a 60 acres (240,000 m2) timber lot at Thomaston was nearly entirely uprooted, clearing a massive forested area and making towns from great distances away, previously obstructed, suddenly visible.[19] The effect of the storm was so pronounced that, according to Sidney Perley, "people felt as if they were in a strange place".[27] The storm was particularly severe on the Atlantic coast, especially in Kennebec, Wiscaset, Berwick, Kittery, and York, causing moderate destruction and killing several cattle. However, at Portland, the hurricane was less severe and its impact was minimal.[2] 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 lfg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Even farther north in Maine, the snowstorm's effects remained disastrous; following its passage, a 60 acres (240,000 m2) timber lot at Thomaston was nearly entirely uprooted, clearing a massive forested area and making towns from great distances away, previously obstructed, suddenly visible.[19] The effect of the storm was so pronounced that, according to Sidney Perley, "people felt as if they were in a strange place".[27] The storm was particularly severe on the Atlantic coast, especially in Kennebec, Wiscaset, Berwick, Kittery, and York, causing moderate destruction and killing several cattle. However, at Portland, the hurricane was less severe and its impact was minimal.[2] I understand that the snow in northern Maine remained on the ground until the following Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 13 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: The social media hype train is running so fast by tomorrow night it will be another Snowicane of 1804. TauntonBlizz will meh his way to a foot on the mulch pile. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’ve got weenie first calls 5 days out. Who needs models or NHC? The first calls will keep us safe Who issued a First Call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Henri looks to be trying to close off an eye. Still not quite there, but certainly indicative of a low end hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 55 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: How much did tamarack measure in that one Maybe Ginx can find Tamarack’s report in the scrolls. Followed up by Jerry saying “Let’s go muthafukkas!” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 18z EPS was the most west run yet. Can't get a zoomed in version to see the members but some strong members are in there too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 18z EPS was the most west run yet. Can't get a zoomed in version to see the members but some strong members are in there too. It looks like a canal to RI mean with a stall and exit east type track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 18z EPS was the most west run yet. Can't get a zoomed in version to see the members but some strong members are in there too. I'm glad we got a chance to dry out the last few weeks. Probably some major flooding in the river valley with a bunch of those members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 I can see the northerly shear sort of smushing the NW portion of Henry . Last few frames He may have a bit of a battle next 18 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 In honor of James I gatta throw in the Gulf Stream comment. SST’s are rocking off the east coast. Henri is going to hit those waters and be primed for intensification. Miss your forum presence Jimmy! Maybe Henri is headed straight to harwich cape cod mass! 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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